Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7067. (Read 26720605 times)

i was indeed making a statement about presently occurring correlation/decoupling. JJG isn't wrong about the long term picture, you are correct regarding shorter terms 

All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.

If you started 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.

Check for yourself at your fav link.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true

Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.

The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.

However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.

It is worth repeating..... especially when peeps.. including long-timers like 600watt (who likely know better) seem to have gotten the characterization wrong based no failure/refusal to adequately zoom their lil selfies out a bit MOAR better... (no homo 600w)

You can look at the charts that go from 2012 to present...

For example, look at the DCA chart that makes the comparison between BTC, gold and equities on an 8 year time scale.  You can adjust the time period in order to show shorter periods, but here, we are talking about longer timeframes of 8 years or so.

Bitcoin has 70x price appreciation over that period, Gold and equities have 46% price appreciation.  Of course, there are up and down waves in there that you can see with bitcoin, and gold and equities appear to be flat because they are so god-damned minuscule in comparison to bitcoin.


If you cannot recognize a lack of correlation within those kinds of longer term glances and you need it spoon-fed more to you, that is not on me..



Who gives a shit?

Zoom out, and I am not even denying that short term correlations have appeared to exist at several points in BTC's price history and I am not even suggesting to go back before 2012 because in some sense, bitcoin was quite a bit more immature in terms of ways to be able to engage in price discovery, and of course, more liquidity avenues and ways to price discover are developing in BTC on an ongoing basis.. but truly we gotta start somewhere, and 2012 seems to be largely fair for the moment, even if BTC has those others outgunned based on its immaturity that causes quite a bit of the lack of correlation, but of course there are other factors as well that contribute to bitcoin's lack of correlation.



Of course, you can you can argue those points, and there are some odds that you could possibly be correct in your assessment.

I would suggest that the odds are against you in making such a bet, and it is on you whether you are going to make such a bet, right?  

Hopefully, you won't drag anyone (especially innocent peeps) else with you in terms of causing them to NOT buy bitcoin, sit on the fence and/or fail refuse to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UPpity.



No need to be eager about being convinced because I am not even going to try to convince you ab out whatever the various factors that you are weighing in order to see either past correlation or to speculate about likely future correlation... because of course, those various scenarios that you describe are plausible.. and I am not proclaiming otherwise.

It remains up to you, and others how they are going to allocate their value into BTC as compared with other possible investments (to the extent that they have any value to allocate into BTC) in the event that bitcoin trends UPpity rather than sideways, down or some nonsensical largely correlation scenario.
 


It is true that bitcoin would not be a very attractive investment under such a hypothetical.. and part of the reason that we hedge is that we do not know the future, exactly.

Historically, we have seen that bitcoin does not come anywhere even close to having had such levels of correlation, and regarding the future, it sure seems quite likely that it will NOT have anything close to having such levels of correlation into future.    


Sure, you are likely correct that as bitcoin matures, the level of its volatility seems to be coming down and likely to continue to come down.. which may also contribute towards more correlation between bitcoin and other assets (such as stocks, gold and other assets) rather than less correlation.

Gee, thanks.

It did come off as weird.
I don't use twitter, so ... good luck with all that.

Bitcoin is madly cheap. Absolute bargain

 

 

 

I knew I wouldn't have to search very far for this one.

Proud hodler since 2008.

https://twitter.com/Ragnarly/status/1309577154183622656?s=20

cute little 3d printed gun. 50 cal gun

you keep saying this...let's see the data.
In 2020 bitcoin has a pretty good correlation with the stock market.
One can argue that non-correlation seen prior was a temporary phenomenon due to a small size and lack of the institutional investment.
It is plausible to suggest that with the increase of institutional investment, bitcoin will start to correlate more, not less, but I am eager to be convinced otherwise.
If bitcoin has 90-100% correlation to a stock market, it would be less attractive as a potential hedge.

If you don't mind red-flagging yourself as the-guy-who-encrypts-everything, of course...

aok no you got em. WO delivers

I think I saw two additional answers and I did merit them. did I miss any?

1h


4h

#stronghands

Yeah damn, the video is hard to watch, poor guy, one of the last standing "famous" libertarians...

BTC already has decoupled from those above and a variety of other asset classes too, such as property, collectibles, etc.


Don't get distracted by short-term BTC price movements that appear to be coupled when they are not when you zoom out a wee bit.


Just look at BTC price movements from 2012 to present... they are not exactly lined up with eth, dollar, gold stocks, or other assets even though there are short periods of appearances of such lining up. 

Of course, ETH has a shorter history and it has been riding on the coattails (and security and cover) of bitcoin, so who knows exactly how that lil smoke & mirrors constantly moving the goal posts about how to scam the next peeps through confusion  - multitude of scams platform - is going to play out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZFvWJQ8WSE

https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1309567134222233601

Lot of sadness and concern about, about Ron Paul having a stroke. One of the good guys huh?

I have been thinking about this:


That falls under the category of “your problem, not theirs”.

I regularly use things made by people whom I personally despise.  If I didn’t, then I would need to boycott >99% of all things in the modern world.  Including almost every product of the tech industry.  Including the Internet.  Should I render myself powerless and irrelevant, while people whom I despise make things that give them power, influence, prestige, and wealth?  I think not.

On the flipside, if I ever create something of significant value (which, thanks to the benefits of anonymity and pseudonymity, you may or may not ever know), then I would personally appreciate if you would please refrain from contaminating my pure and sacred creation with your grubby little hands.  You, and a few billion others.  At least, that is how I feel:  I wish for anything that I ever create to only be touched (or even seen) by people whom I approve politically, morally, and culturally.  But if I have a purpose for giving others something of value to them, then I am not inclined to defeat myself by throwing a hissy fit, grabbing my toys, and running away.

What about whatever productive work you may do?  Do you lie awake at night wondering if somebody you dislike may enjoy something that you have done?  To any creative personality, is that not infinitely more important than the personalities who made things that you consume?

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I think that this point needs a salutary object demonstration.

I hate simply cannot resist the opportunity to ruin this for you:  Dr Wernher von Braun, the chief architect of the rocket that put man on the moon, was a NSDAP member and SS officer who attained the rank of SS-Sturmbannführer.  I have no doubt that deep in his heart, he wished to put a swastika flag on the moon instead of the American flag.  And he was not the only like mind on the moon mission team; to the contrary!

I have a longtime pet theory that the “moon landing hoax” nonsense is motivated by this well-known fact on a very deep level.  It is a way of declaring Dr von Braun “cancelled”.

To help you cope with “the political beliefs of people [you] otherwise hold in high regard”, why don’t you open a P&S thread Revealing The Truth:  The so-called “moon landing” was a hoax concocted by an underground Nazi conspiracy to glorify the Third Reich!

Now, here and there on the Internet, you may have seen what appears to be PROOF that the moon landing hoax was done by Jews.  But of course, as a cover story in case the hoax was discovered, the Nazis had to create a meta conspiracy theory blaming the hoax on Jews.  Just because logically, Jews are exactly the people who would want for an SS officer and his fellows to be forever remembered in history as the builders of the first moon rocket.  That’s a typical Jewish thing!  It all makes sense!  Connect the dots, people!

Perhaps I myself should make such a thread.  The aforestated theory is more sensible than most of the stuff in P&S.

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Lest delicate liberal brains actually, literally, physically explode, I will not mention the various opinions of numerous poets, artists, scholars, scientists, and philosophers throughout history—e.g., what Voltaire said about blacks and Jews.  If, nutildah, you really want to apply some sort of a political correctness litmus test for “the political beliefs of people [you] otherwise hold in high regard for their contributions”, then more or less your only option is to go hide in a cave.