Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7243. (Read 26725956 times)

Bitcoin's unique value proposition:

1 bitcoin will never be equal to less than 1 over 21,000,000 of the entire bitcoin supply.

No other money could ever make a similar claim.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1297966795085828096?s=21

So DeFi memes is a thing these days?

BCash confirmation times 😂😂😂😂..👇

https://twitter.com/terryjones0001/status/1298215679678701570?s=21

Jbreher....? 

just my quick 2 cents (sats?) on taxes. when i cash out an amount of corn to fiat that i need for some project or another i cash out an extra 20% or so and put it into a bank CD or something safe like that (as fiat of course). that way if the price craters at least i have the fiat to pay the irs when the piper calls. hoping the price holds or increases until tax time is not a very good strategy imo. of course if the price goes up i left some profit on the table but the alternative if the price goes down is.. unpleasant. one does not want the irs as an enemy.

i can see the bull... he comes towards us

Hi and thanks for your comments and questions
The chart can be explained as follows:
1) It is a mid-long term perspective and that is why it is not focused on giving short term trading ideas.
2) Still, here are some insights: The downward sloping upper trendline was broken in Spring 2020 and then we saw a consolidation / triangle pattern above 8500-9000 $, followed by another rally leg towards the summer high above 12000 $.
3) For the short term, we need to wait a couple of weeks to determine if there will be a deeper correction back to the 8500-9000 $ congestion zone, or whether the bitbulls are stronger to march towards new 2020 highs and then (in my view likely) to new all-time-highs in 2021-22.

Out of merits but this pic truly deserves to be merited with a 1000 WOmerits!
I know it's off topic but this is going to end bad (like the DAO, the ICO craze...). Eventually the truth will out

https://decrypt.co/39599/curve-founder-seizes-71-of-curve-dao-voting-power

There's only one king here, and you all know it

I concur.

Here's your chart.. TheRealOne.

That chart does not invoke inspiration regarding either where we are at or where we might be going.

Maybe you can explain yourself a bit better .. provide some analysis, perhaps?

As indicated months ago, more upside is in the cards
https://i.imgur.com/B5ahRyM.jpg

Gosh Biodom.  Once you reach your wealth accumulation target (whether that is $2 million or $10 million or some other amount) that you believe is sufficiently comfortable to preserve your previous accustomed standard of living, then if you want to bulk (rather than incrementally) diversify your BTC portion into some other assets then you are more than free to accomplish those kinds of discretionary diversifications.

I was not even suggesting only one method, but I guess I was still attempting to focus on how the income that could be generated from bitcoin, since the last time I checked I thought that we were in a bitcoin thread, but it still does not even necessarily mean that any guy should be going complete bitcoin.. that seems to be far from what a vast majority of us regular bitcoiners in the WO have been advocating, including yours truly, and you should realize that about me by now, especially if you torture ur lil selfie by reading the whole thing from time to time.   


I am not forgetting taxes, just like I am not forgetting various other expenses or other income sources that guys might have.  As we know some expenses and even some income sources are necessities and some are discretionary and some fall in a kind of middle ground.

I did not go through all of the expenses and possible sources of income because I figured that guys could do some of those particularized tailoring for themselves. 

In regards to taxes, specifically, Capital gains taxes are 15% in some jurisdictions, which tends to be less than regular income taxes, and presumably if you have a cost basis, then the whole $80k per year would not be profits (most of us are not that lucky in terms of our costs per BTC).. and I hope that guys should already be accounting for a variety of those kinds of related matters when they figure out how much they need per month to live and how much of a float they feel that they need (including that the amount and the float will likely change from time to time, too).

Seems that I am starting with some relatively straight-forward calculations, and if you believe that you need more than $80k per year to live in terms of that passive income, then you can adjust the amount that you feel that you need to a level that would be more appropriate for your targeted life-style. 

By the way, I recall that I had said to you previously, Biodom, that it seems to me that you seem inclined to talk yourself out of reaching fuck you status.. and sure, each of has our penchants and you do not even need to accept my hypothetical levels, and surely I understand there are individualized balancing of concerns and I have sympathies if any guy who ends up pulling the fuck you lever too early while at the same time sympathies for guys who could pull the fuck you lever, but instead choose to work for the man until they drop dead from stress or otherwise getting beaten up on a regular basis while considering working for a living to be "enjoyable."     

Presenting the various scenarios and even attempting to plan should help guys to engage in their own particularized planning and reaching conclusions regarding thresholds and even important considerations that they can throw into the mix here, too.

Very interesting to see Fidelity's view on #bitcoin  and stock to flow: "Commodities with a [high S2F] have historically served as superior stores of value. [..] Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow will eclipse that of gold following the next halving (2024)."
fidelitydigitalassets.com/bin-public/060…
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1297803898737090560?s=21

Yeah Jay, thanks, I'm aware of that story.
Not that I believe it for a freaking second though.

WO'ers that -presumably- sold everything at the bottom, whilst screaming about it:

2016 > r0ach
2020 > mindrust
2024 > ?

And so on.
Please update Juan and notify Gee.

---

Impressive. Wishing you a fast recovery.
I have a hard cap. For safety reasons.

I read it in full, believe it or not...
If I would sell btc, it would not be a slow withdrawal to simply "live".
It has to be something profound, sorry JJG.
However, who knows.
BTW, you forgot taxes on that 80K/year.
Suddenly, it is less to much less.

SHUM

I will concede Philip that there could be several ways of getting at both $2million as the starting out presumption principle, and also $6,666.67 per month as the projected income from that amount.  Sometimes I write  about this "fuck you" status so frequently in this thread and then in other places, and then I do not always show my work very well.  

Of course, I am probably no saint, either because it's not like I had the "fuck you" status formula sorted out in my head from the start; I kind of adapted such fuck you status formula, to some extent based on writing it down a few times and also from some of the feedback that guys were giving about what I had previously written.

I will concede that your formula might work too, but surely I can see that you are using different presumptions in order to get at the $6,666.67 income from accumulating such $2million principle (and you end up adjusting it to $3million.. all fair in love and war, but surely a differing set of assumptions and I don't even believe that some of your assumptions are very practical when I really look them over).  

In any event, let me try to explain some of the presumptions underlying terms of my formula.

First, with the actual $2 million as the target. I recognize that there are guys with higher and lower standards of living needs and I just thought that $2 million would be a great reasonable compromise position that guys can work with.  Some guys have suggested that they need way more (like $10 million or $40 million or some bullshit like that), and sometimes I just want stick with more basics and even appreciate how much power comes, even from a mere $2 million in principle because actual passive income tends to be a very real powerful thing.  

Think about it.  With passive income, we do not have to do shit (except maybe just keep track of our accounts), and we have a passive income coming in of $6,666.67 per month.  

Of course, on the other side of the goal of the $2 million principle amount, there were guys who were saying that they were not aspiring to that much because NOT only their needs were NOT very high or that they were living in an area of the world in which the cost of living was quite humble.  Even $500k was put out there as a kind of reasonable target for some guys to reach fuck you status - and surely, I am not going quibble exactly if guys can really be comfortable in their own skin with a mere $1,666.67 per month of passive income, and I surely know a quite a few people (even in the USA) who live off of way smaller amounts than $1,666.67 per month.  

So, of course the target amount of the principle can be adjusted based on a variety of considerations, including if some guys might be old as fuck already, and if they do not already have something close to $500k as their principle, they do not have a lot of time to work towards building the amount that they can aspire to have, so they likely have to work with the amount that they have rather than expecting that amount to go shooting up all of a sudden under some kind of miracle projections... because even though we get all kinds of get-rich-quick stories in the crypto space, one of the ways to actually lose your principle is to end up buying into some of those get-rich-quick schemes rather than working with what you got and trying to preserve it, build it reasonably and even count your blessings for any kind of price appreciation that you are able to achieve (and can lock-in) that is greater than your previously hopefully modestly designed principle building trajectory.

Second:how to calculate passive income from $2 million principle
I am using a relatively conservative traditional 4% formula for the presumptions that if you are putting your capital to work in a variety of ways, you should be able to maintain the value of the capital by withdrawing about 4% per year in perpetuity because you are able to find ways to earn at least that amount of 4% per year on the principle that you have.  

Don't get me wrong in regards to bitcoin.  With bitcoin, you do not need to put your bitcoins anywhere except for in your own private wallet in order to anticipate that they are going to appreciate on the value of your BTC on average 4% per year.  In other words, you do not need to increase the size of your BTC stash by 4% per year in order for your BTC stash to become worth at least 4% more in value per year  (remember that bitcoin is designed to pump forever, and we have already witnessed way greater than 4% per year gains on our bitcoin, so the presumptions of continued 4% per year gains in value seem decently conservative),

In other words, I am presuming that you can comfortably withdraw 4% per year from your bitcoin stash, and your bitcoins on average are going to price appreciate at least an average of 4% per year.  

So with $6,666.67 per month, I am not even talking about getting into withdrawing principle.  $2 million * 4% = $80k / 12 = $6666.67 per month.

Now if you are not in bitcoin, and you are in other assets besides bitcoin, you may need to put those other assets to work in order to ensure that they are earning on average of at least 4% per year, and there is nothing wrong with having other assets, even if their market performance is likely going to vary from one another to some degree.  

Also, my earlier response already accounted for the need to be pricing your assets at their potential extreme bottoms in order to maintain the bottom of whatever you our fuck you status happens to be, even though when you incrementally cash out (or make withdrawals from your accounts), whether bi-weekly, monthly, quarterly bi-annually, annually or some other increment, you are going to be cashing out value at the then current price of the various assets that are put to work in differing ways.  

If you have all of your assets in cash, then cash is likely not working for you, and in the coming years might be working against you in terms of value appreciation.  There are few asset managers who are going to be suggesting to keep all your assets in cash or to NOT have them working, unless you are almost dead and they are cashing out quickly, including cashing out principle too or some other shorter term horizon to extract all of the value from the portfolio of assets.

Let's say for example, you have the 307.7 BTC that I had already suggested from my earlier post to be today's minimum $2 million value (based on the $6,500 BTC bottom price $2million/$6,500=307.7BTC), and you feeling that you want to be in fuck you status merely because you have reached your BTC accumulation goal, and why not start now, especially since a 4% withdrawal rate is presumed to be sustainable forever anyhow, and if your fuck you status goal has been reached, then there should be no better time than the present to start fuck you status living, right?

Anyhow, you decide to start implementing your cashing out plan immediately, so maybe you want to cash out half a year's allocation... just to have some float because you do not really know where the BTC price is going to go in the next 6 months, so you could decide to cash out $6,666 per month x 6 = $40k (3.42 BTC) (current price $11,700) or you could cash out 2%, which would be 6.154 BTC, which would be currently about $72k.  

So, sure there is a decently large difference in terms of how much you would like to cash out, and some discretion in terms of how much you cash out at any given time, which might put you in more difficult times at the next time that you decide to cash out some more income from your BTC stash.  So you would be in a different place if BTC prices were at $17,250 in 6 months or maybe BTC prices go down to the projected bottom around $6,500, and you can decide if you are going to cash out an additional 2% of your remaining BTC stash for the year, and your total stash would be somewhere between 301.546 BTC and 304.28 BTC depending upon which option you had exercised in the withdrawal from 6 months earlier in the year.  

Of course, in some ways, you could make the whole matter simpler in terms of your not having to worry about the BTC price if you just cash out every month at .33% * 307.7 BTC (currently $11,880 = 1.01541 BTC) or every two weeks at .167% * 307.7 BTC (currently $6,012 = .513859 BTC).  Simpler in terms of not calculating BTC price might be easier than the accounting that might come from more frequent BTC cashenings.  

Another alternative would be to just cash out $3,333 per two weeks (currently .28487179 BTC) or $6667 per month (currently .56982906 BTC) and don't worry about the BTC price, unless the price happens to go below the $6,500 theoretical bottom that puts your capital below the $2 million fuck you status... if you have changes in your principle and your bottom price presumptions, then you might have to titrate down the amounts of your withdrawals until either the BTC price goes up or some other ways to get you back into your target "fuck you" status.

Also, as you continue to withdraw BTC from your stash, then of course, you may have to monitor its value from time to time to make sure that it's value does not go outside of your parameters, and there can be advantages and disadvantages of holding a variety of assets, rather than just BTC... which most wealthy people do not have their assets all tied into one category, but surely there are some who do do that, and have a large wealth cushion, too.



Well, if you decide to completely diversify out of bitcoin into cash, then that would be something that I would not be recommending, and I doubt that there are very many folks who manage their portfolios by diversifying into cash unless they are planning to die soon or to completely liquidate their principle but sure some people are going to feel better to go to a passive income status based on their value held in fiat rather than having it either in bitcoin or some combination of assets.


Your formulas are seeming unrealistic, but I suppose if you are going to go totally to cash then maybe you would need way more BTC in order to feel comfortable converting it all over to cash?  I am not suggesting to do anything like that, and so guys can be their own worst enemy sometimes, but hey people are going to calculate value and what risks that they feel comfortable with in a variety of ways.  

I had gotten out of my attachment to getting into fiat quite a while back, but I understand the inclination to want to get into fiat.. it is likely a real concern that people have when they are calculating what to do and how much they believe that they need to accomplish their various financial and psychological comfort level objectives.



I really do not believe that you need that many coin, especially if $2 million principle is your goal, and like I mentioned, if you are calculating a BTC price bottom as currently in the $6,500 arena (the current 200 week moving average), then that is 307.7 BTC, currently.  

I believe that it would be completely silly to cash them into fiat right away, and if you start to live off of 4% per year, then you can start right now when your money is working for you, and of course, we should be able to presume a 4% per year return from bitcoin.. I think that a 4% per year return from bitcoin on average is reasonable and it is even conservative (and remember the calculating of the 4% per year should merely be the moving up of the bottom which is currently at about $6,500 - and we also know that the current BTC spot price moves all over the place in the short term, but the spot price is not the one that we monitor for the withdrawing of the 4% per year.. so long as we are above the bottom price, presumably going up 4% per year, too).

Whether you are 63 years old, 40 years old or 75 years old, you can still make the same presumptions.  Of course, the younger you are, the more that you want to make sure that your presumptions are solid and that they are playing out because you do not want to be digging into your principle if you are younger.  When you get older, there is likely less risk to actually starting to dig into your principle because you are likely anticipating digging into your principle, at some point anyhow... but the 4% per year is a young man's game and should be a perpetually sustainable game, once you start it so long as all of your underlying presumptions are correct.  

Anyhow, cashing out at 4% per year could be measured as 1% per quarter or .33% per month, .167% every 2 weeks.. or some other timeline equivalent measurement that is comfortable for you.

Hopefully, I clarified what I was trying to say rather than making matters more complicated.

Okay if two million in btc is f u status you need three million not 2. if you cash the 3 and pay tax ending up with 2 million in cash gives me 33 years at 6666.66 a month.

Now if I did all of the above and btc goes to 50k a coin I would never be happy I cashed in the three million in coin or about 290 coins.

If I was looking to cash 290 coins. I would need at least 210 more to hodl.

Now the numbers above mean I need 500 coins . I am 63 if you are younger add 9 coins for each year you are younger.

I e

63 you need 500. cash 290
62 you need 509. cash 295
61 you need 518 cash  300

most people here dont have that much coin.

Poor citizens of Hong Kong.
They can't say anything against the interest of the mainland or its ruling party.
It's likely not everyone wants to, but still... there seemed to be a few protesters.
Freedom, even a whiff of it, is hard to give up once tasted.
Imagine all the protesters voting with their money.
Imagine a huge run on the banks.
Decent liquidity shock. Like a small stress test, only it's not a drill. It's for real.
Imagine all these people embracing BTC so they can't be ditched.

It's likely just a dream, but still... there seemed to be a few protesters.