Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7520. (Read 26723945 times)

O.k.. So, I am gathering that I can go back to calling you toxic moxic, since we are all back in a good moo and largely on the same page.  

Research here shows that as long as the FED long term interest rate stays below 4%, the world will remain in a stagflationary or deflationary quagmire:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-stunning-chart-blows-all-modern-central-banking


But equity and asset price inflation will continue to skyrocket.

@JJG

You have my word, I will NEVER go full mindrust. I’m not selling anything until at least $30,000.

Incredible numbers here (savings rate 1959-2020):
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

33% savings rate when the last 25 years it was 5-7%.
What does this mean? Short term inflation is unlikely, long term, probably, guaranteed, with even a small whiff of goods shortage.
Everything is out of balance so I am keeping a hefty cash balance in my ret accounts.
Maybe the next 5-10 years is capital preservation time and we would have to be running just to stay put.

I lost my first transaction through a trojan (installed by testing "mining" software), luckily it was a test amount of 0.01 btc from exchange to wallet, but i didn't check the destination address twice, because clipboard contents can't change... (...right?)
I am glad that i made that mistake so early, glad that it was a tiny amount as well.
I can eventually feel with this guy a little, IF his story is actually true, IF the steal was real....

EDIT:
But what i essentially wanted to say was:
It's not heartless to give a man one of the most valuable advices in life, after he stepped into its shit!

(Edited so many times because of errrrrors, time to give it up against the nap)
SLEEP WELL

yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point.
I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024.

It may seem heartless to say, but you have to take responsibility for your own actions. Also, begging for handouts is a poor show. If a handout goes to anyone, it should go to the victims of Lady Fortune.

Models are always being adjusted to reflect reality (price), models are always incomplete, at least in some way, and if IIRC, planB (or Burger) also somehow mentioned this in some recent reply to a S2FX concerning tweet already.


OK, but promise me/us that you won't go mindrust if bitcoin temporarily tanks again next time    
Do something good to yourself today as well! You deserve no less, you know...

EDIT: I'm in a very good mood today, and i just wanted to share and spread a bit of this to y'all here.
Change is good, if you can embrace it. My mrs. is out of the house for the next two days, which means a lot of change over the course of a day when you have to take care of four kids. I am generally the more relaxed person than her, but i'm about ten years older and went through a lot more of the mean shit of life than her, which also made me grow (by embracing it - don't take that literally, btw  ).
So the first day of mrs-out-of-home brought me and my kids together more than ever before, emotionally and (don't beat me for this term) spiritually (i know...   but it's exactly that). I wouldn't have had the chance to encounter this with her always-caring, more concerned way being present and influent all day. I tried to encourage her quite often to leave for a couple of days and just do something good for herself in this time, but she never won the fight against that caring/concerning part of her, and now she was forced through education.

This is why i wanted some WO members, and i implicitly want for the rest of us, to go and just do something good to yourself - and hopefully it will do something good to your loved ones too.

Off for #hodlsleep now  

S’up guys,

I haven’t been as active as I normally am, getting kinda bored with the total non-existent price action at the moment. There’s not really much to discuss at the moment is there? It’ll come, all in good time but I haven’t had the motivation to post that much in here the last couple of weeks (at my usual rate any way).

We’re getting close to entering Q3 of this absolute shit show of a year, hopefully honey-badger is ready to start treating us as we go into July & beyond. I’m certainly ready to see my bags begin to gain in value, 1BTC = 1BTC etc etc but it’d be nice to start getting close to $11,000 or $12,000.

Any way just checking in, have a good weekend. Love you guys #nohomo

Surely, we all know that there are no guarantees in anything, and of course, like you suggested, in bitcoin, we have some real interesting attempts create a technical system of hard money that is of the ilk that has never been seen previously, and surely any previous attempts had never gotten past theoretical stages, while bitcoin now has a bit more than an 11 year of actual operations and surely built upon several other previous systems and tweaked along the way, too.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, and I really appreciate your framing of your answer with a decent amount of specifics that both allow for a better understanding regarding from where you are coming, but also an opportunity to show differences of opinion even if some of the differences might be trivial in the whole scheme of things, your framework does allow for points of potentially meaningful discussion.




Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps?  Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate?  Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right?



Again, you seem to be too bearish.   A stock market flat or slightly decline seems to be a great scenario for bitcoin.

So, maybe you are overly playing the correlation hypothesis, and really, Biodom, I will concede that 2020 has had a decent amount of bitcoin to stock market correlation.  I will even concede that we can look back at bitcoin's history and we can identify a large number of short periods of bitcoin correlation to the stock market, but if we look at bitcoin in a broader context, the correlation hypothesis is really difficult to argue as being objectively correct... except for those people who are wanting to ongoingly argue, amplify (and see) correlation where it is likely a lot less present and persistent than they would like to assert, except during various short term price moves.

By the way, the stock to flow narrative could be off by 50% for a decent amount of time and still be correct, but it might still need to be adjusted in order to account for the new data, but would not make the stock to flow model as wrong, just needing some tweakenings.



We could also have over performance of equities and underperformance of BTC, right?

In other words, even though there may be a certain amount of truth that overperformance of equities might allow for continued decent performance of BTC and even BTC staying with the existing stock to flow numbers, I still doubt that mere great performance of equities necessarily would mean that S2F has to follow.  In other words, stock market performance is not included into the stock to flow model (as we all know) even though it may (emphasis on may) have some effects depending upon how severe equities might go in one direction or another.



If you have a lot of faulty premises, then your numbers are going to come out faulty, too, which I think is what happened here.

 


I doubt that PlanB is as worried as you are  making him out to be.  He is likely just ongoingly playing with his numbers or his formula to make sure that it is reflecting ongoing events.  Of course, anyone can look at past variants, too in order to see how much the model may be shifting, rather than solid, but even if it continues to get tweaked, I doubt that it has really been shown to have major flaws.. and really any of us should be taking the model with a grain of salt, anyhow... I recall initially he was projecting the 2021-ish time frame as $50k, then he went to $100k, then he went to $288k, and sure whatever number he comes up with may or may not happen, and who cares?  Sure some people might become overly reliant on such model and its predictions, and thats on them for not being critical enough in their thinking about it.. or maybe having a plan for either way.. since it is hard to really predict the future with any precision, which is part of the reason that any of us should be having some broad picture plans that account for a variety of scenarios that include both extremely bullish, bearish and even mediocre, and of course, tweaking along the way while trying to somewhat stay with a scenario is a whole hell of a lot easier than NOT acting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the odds to get in your favor and that's almost never going to happen.. in other words it is way better to be acting on way incomplete information because tweaking along the way is way easier than if you never had any momentum or stake in the first place.


Who cares?  Let them collapse.   If people are so dumb (or greedy) to believe that they have to earn interest on an already asymmetric bet (aka king daddy) then maybe they deserve to lose their bitcoin.. its not going to kill bitcoin if a bunch of them go belly up.  Is it?

One of my first suspicious thoughts was that he might have made up the steal to trick "heartwarm" people into donating some satoshis, and after you posted this, i thought it seems to have worked out if my ego's assumption was right.

As you like to say: perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
Perhaps we'll never know  


Bob, i think i can feel you, just that watching these kind of market "moves" makes me more SMH than angry.
But hey, as long as BTC is used to serve as fiat speculator's whore, we kind of have to get used to these dynamics.
Honestly, i don't think it will be easy. Ever. But it would be better.
Do yourself something good today  

Vaguely aware of such a concept yes..  Narratives interacting with black swan events tend to be disrupted..that all I was saying.

I am fairly certain that no matter how long it takes...we are heading in the direction we all wish to go. That what happens in the short term (ie. the next year or so), I am prepared...as I think you are as well.

Whilst I cant say I have no doubts...I consider them trivial.

one thing is for sure: hot money retail crowd is not into bitcoin at the moment and are, instead, chasing bankrupt companies, lol.
Bitcoin is currently fighting to be considered hard money, but only history would eventually show if it succeeds or not. I am willing to believe in this narrative, but there are no guarantees.

Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.
2. If stocks are approximately flat or very slightly decline (60% probability), btc would appreciate, but not hundreds of %% per year and will NOT reach S2F numbers (at least at the predicted time).
3. If stocks appreciate (20% probability), btc could reach S2F numbers in time (2021).

Therefore: 20/100 (1:5 or 20%) chance (IMHO) that the S2F goal (55K-100K) would be reached in 2021 (no indication for later).
I think that planB now realized this, so he came up with S2FX, which does not have an exact timeframe and generally talks about the 2020-2024 period, which could be backloaded and also caused by inflation closer to mid decade.

EDIT: in order to be real hard money, bitcoin would have to deal, somehow, with all those Defi/lending companies that pay up to 4% interest (in BTC!). It is not clear to me how this is possible with hard btc number, or, at least, maybe possible, but prone to collapse with fast price moves.

Poor toxic. Having doubts about king daddy.  

Have you heard of the "stock to flow narrative"?

 

 

They won't know your seed, it never leaves the device.

It's like when you buy a safe. The company that makes the safe won't know the combination you chose in the privacy of your own home. They just know how the safe works, but not what combination you set. And with the Trezor code being open-source, any backdoor would be exposed before a hacker could organize an attack. When it comes to cryptography, open-source is the only way to go, otherwise, you'll never know what deal the company that make the s/w have made with the NSA...

Unless you mean the case where Trezor's servers get hacked, and a compromised firmware update gets released, which, combined with a compromised version of Trezor Bridge on the PC (hacked by the same hacker), somehow manages to upload the keys to the hacker's server. I guess that theoretically this could happen, but I think it would be extremely difficult for a hacker to be able to pull this through.

Regardless of the practicalities, the one-to-one seed --> key mathematical mapping holds true. So, seed = key,  and we should treat it as such, protecting it from leaking on the net, not showing to anyone, backing it up, etc.

I'd think a paper wallet would be more at risk from common thieves stealing it from you, or degradation (always keep backups, even just photocopies).

In the end, whatever we choose, we've got to be extra careful with our security practices. The word "obvious" is very dangerous when it comes to Bitcoin and cryptography in general.

Two tips:

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Plausible deniability -- A $5 wrench is too damn cheap.

I will admit that I have used the copy / paste feature to send and receive both through hardware wallets and through sending from one exchange to another or some other kind of on the computer screen verification that goes through the browser and might not be using a hardware wallet in all instances.  

So, yeah there could be copy and paste and even some key stroke capturing software that could jeopardize the security of those kinds of online (or thorugh the computer) transactions.    I had not previously considered the copy / paste vulnerability, but it surely makes sense upon reflection.

Regarding BIP39, I agree the points of AlcoHoDL and others agreeing with him that the back up way of being able to have 12, 18 or 24 seed words is the same as a private key, just a different form and sure there are likely some vulnerabilities that come from that form of back up just like there are trade offs in either not having a back up, or adding an additional word that the end user or software could screw up, or problems that might come from how paper wallets might be generated, stored, maintained (practiced) and recovered.  

From my understanding, not all new wallets are BIP39 compatible, so surely there is some agreement with Jimbo's somewhat anti-BIP39 assertions, but maybe for different reasons and sometimes the advocates of non-BIP39 standards might be trying to sell a different product, different form of security, a different way of backing up (such as multi-sig) or maybe going back to systems that don't have back ups, which supposedly have some different kinds of security trade offs too (as ivomm seemed to have been arguing) that might not be necessarily better from an objective standard (if any objective way of measuring these security/usability matters could be measured at any specific time that could end up changing down the road, too).



Maybe I am not technical enough, but there is no "could be" about BIP39 seeds.. they are both keys and back up keys... just in a different format... From what I understand, it's another way of getting your keys.. like having an actual key copy that you stuck under the potted plant, just in case you forget the code, the battery goes dead in the lock or some other malfunction of the electronic lock that you placed on your front door.


Aren't there potential vulnerabilities in both software and in firmware?

Even if software is open source, mere mortals are frequently going to have trouble understanding the extent to which there might be exploitable vulnerabilities, right?


That's kind of what I was saying (in my above response).. but of course, you said it first... but still, I said something similar.

Still need to trust the software generating the private keys. A number of browser based 'paper wallet generators', which can be run offline, have had security issues (no true randomness, etc).

Are you using Bitcoin Core? Guess that should be considered safe, after verifying the hash of the download.

That's really interesting about Android. I would have expected a lot more forks, even obscure ones, at this point.

The hardware manufacturers and their firmware?