I personally believe that it is difficult to try to contain bitcoin in any kind of exact box like that in terms of the extent of the next exponential rise (presuming that we have one).
The graph shows that there are only three previous halvenings to work from, and surely there should be some reasonableness in recognizing that the price rises are not going to be as great, but if our denominator is dollars, and the dollars are being pumped the fuck out of, then how could that denominator remain reliable?
I would consider gold and real estate and maybe even other properties to be more reliable denominators, but we even realize that gold, real estate and other properties are a lot less reliable denominators because they all suffer a similar kind of status of being manipulated by dollar financialization...
Another aspect is figuring out from where the starting point of the price rise is figured, and yeah, PlanB is seeming to try to pick a somewhat objective point because he is going by the price at the time of the halvening, and surely to me, there seems to be some randomness in picking that price point, rather than looking at the cycles and trying to figure out a kind of base starting out point in which an upward cycle starts and then seeing how far that it goes before correcting again, so sometimes (such as 2013) there are a couple of cycles within a short period of time, but sure, we could also look at 2013 as merely one BIG cycle with a long correction in the middle, but that still would not give us much precision, either in terms of figuring out if the 2020 to 2022 cycle (ish) (again presuming that we are going to have one), might end up with two upward trends or one, or perhaps even three, and surely if there ends up being a smaller one and then a seemingly drug out period of down and then another one (or two more after that), those more volatile dynamics (even while still largely upwards in the whole scheme of things) could shake a decent number of weak hands out in a way that might be more satisfying to the BIGGER institutional (and maybe governmental) whales that might be figuring out ways to get into the space and removing some coins from retail to put into the hands of more financial status quo players.
Sure, none of us know how any of this is going to play out, even if the stock-to-flow model remains one of our strongest current guides to try to predict a future that is far from set in stone...including mathematical graphs that are striving to predict human behavior with only three previous cycles of an immature never before seen asset class.
