[edited out]
You know, right after I posted the message you're quoting, I did exactly the calculation you did, but didn't update the post. I'm glad another WO had a similar thought. If the analogy remains constant, we'll end up with around 12.5 * 12.5 / 51 *
= $26000. Not a large amount for 2024. It's still a decent value, but it won't give me "fcuk you" rich status.
I don't mean to depress you, AlcoHoDL, by providing numbers that are more conservative than desired, but it does not seem to hurt, psychologically (and/or financially), to have some conservative estimates within our conceptualizations of what might happen and to keep ourselves somewhat grounded in various possible outcomes that might not express train us to fuck you richie status.
Really I still think that 4x to 8x returns over four years would be quite great even if they are kind of in the model of an s-curve that is sloping less upwardly steep with the passage of time...
So yeah, you get 51x in the second 4 years and then you get 12.5x in the third 4 years, that is going to put us at some more conservative amount, and I don't believe that it is $26,000 like you calculated it to be, but instead gets us to somewhere between 4x and 8x - which would be $8,505 x 4x or 8x = $34,020 or $68,040, and that is merely at the point of the next halvening.
So, even if we have the BTC price of the next halvening to be in the $34k to $68k arena, it still would NOT suggest that we are NOT going on a further UPward trajectory and coming back down during that passage of time.
So, if there are ways to reasonably shave some profits off in price ranges that are between $70k to $180k (presuming that we might go there, too) then there would not be anything wrong with shaving off a few profits for insurance, even if we might not be sure if the price is going to continue to go up and it might not correct anywhere near the levels that are projected.
I am not even trying to lock these numbers in because we don't really have any decent clues about the upside ceiling of some next exponential upward run, were it to occur, nor do we have good clues about the amount of the subsequent correction, were it to occur.
I'd like to think that the current value of $8.5k is somewhat suppressed by the long bear market, and is more of an outlier, so, in that sense, there is some degree of daydreaming/hoping for $50k, or even $100k at the time of the 2024 Halving, and this gives us (me) something to look forward to.
I don't think that our current price is suppressed.
BTC's current price seems to be right in line with current valid price prediction models, including 1) the stock to flow model, 2) the four-year fractal and 3) the s-curve exponential adoption curve... So, the current price does not even seem to be limiting BTC's price performance in any kind of significant ways. Some might argue, even, that BTC's current price is too high, and it still is on target to reach BIG ass exponential numbers, but just having to spend some time battling out prices in this arena for a bit longer.. whether that is 3 months or 6 months or even some other longer period of time, but that would NOT necessarily stop it from progressing in terms of still being able to meet the expectations of those currently valid price prediction models.
Even at $26k, it's still by far the best investment I've ever made,
I agree, and even with that level of performance it will probably outperform a vast majority of current traditional investment options.
so, my statement of a win-win for all is probably true,
I think that part is true, too.. I just want to harass you with some specific numbers, and maybe even grill you a bit in regards to how you are thinking about the numbers, as well.
except perhaps for our fellow, fallen WO, mindrust, who, I'm sorry to say, will probably never be able to buy back without a loss, something that should teach us all that the SELL button is a button that should rarely be pressed, and only for very good reason, and never when we are too emotional.
I would not write off the possibility that he might be able to remedy his situation, even though the cards are seeming quite stacked against him currently, so I agree, he has kind of put himself into a pickle.. damned if you do and damned if you don't, and a lot of the pickle came from starting that process of clicking that button with the whole of his BTC stash, but also included a level of lack of diversification that he had acknowledged on a whole lot of occasions before he clicked that sell button.
There are some folks who talk pretty boldly about having everything in bitcoin, and there may be ways that the could end up being o.k. as long as they know that from time to time, they may have to shave off some BTC that is at a time that is NOT of their own choosing.
Phew, that was a long sentence, sorry, I just got out of bed to check something (not the price, though I did check it), and I'm kind of half asleep right now...which is probably rather obvious from the way I say/type things...
Good night, Jay, and all..........
Yeah.. you might have screwed up by checking this thread, and then choosing to respond when you should have been sleepie, sleep. I have made that mistake a few times, so I can relate. If you need another leave to amend, then I will try NOT to blame you too much for that... Hopefully, you did not sell too many of your bitcoin before returning to bed. That would be ironic.
