These stupid people at CNN right now seem so confident that US is going to see 0.1 million deaths. It's like... if US (hopefully not) gets to see 0.1 million deaths, Trump will come out and tweet, "told you so!".
Again it's simple multiplication. Everyone is going to get infected. Literally everyone.
Pick whatever death rate you prefer. If it's just 1%, that's 3.2 million US deaths.
It's going to be a lot less than 1%, that's what I think.
https://youtu.be/d6MZy-2fcBwThis video lasts an hour and I don't have the exact time in the video where he analyses the data. I know most people, when they see a link to a one hour video, aren't exactly inspired by the prospect of spending that much time. But I watched the entire video and didn't get bored or impatient.
Ioannidis arrives at a fairly wide range because data is incomplete right now, but .05% is in his range. It's a wide range, admittedly, but 1% seems less likely than .05%.
