Just got an email from Trezor with a link to their
halving blog which mostly shits on Plan
BTC stock to flow model. I've always considered the S2F strong hopium for hodlers so nothing new but nice to get level-headed approach to alternative narratives.
TLDR, S2F model shows scarcity, not demand. Price and demand historically goes up with each supply halving, how much this time, still nobody knows.
Which is why I have always said the S2F will only be valid until it isn't, and that is probably coming soon.... maybe in one year, maybe two... It is just a matter of time it reaches a price mathematically impossible to achieve. But way sooner than reaching that point it will begin to fail.
Can Bitcoin reach $100K in the next couple of years? Yes, it is a *possibility*. I don't even give it a 50/50 chance... which is a lot anyways!
Can S2F model still be valid 10 years from now? No, it simply can't.
Nice hopium though.
my mantra any particular day. notice the 'worse case scenario' is no longer BTC to zero and beanie babies...anyway..my 'mental yoga' to stay in HODL mode
(that an feeling like a BTC revolutionary and not letting the monied interests/banks/elite ultra-rich co-opt blockchain privately for their own uses)
from worst case to best case.
(1) BTC will dump to 2/3 of the current price on whatever day you use this 'BTC mental yoga" method. BTC adoption having been reached, and BTC now
goes sideways in price, a bit better as a store of value than gold and now grows modestly at best as a traditional stock market valuation would from then on.
(2) BTC will stay at whatever current price on whatever day/hour/etc you use this 'BTC mental yoga' method. BTC adoption obviously having been made and
the price from this 'current price' you look at such, as a thought experiment, will at best go sideways and now due to adoption being met as a niche market
like gold, will now grow modestly like a traditional stock market asset from then on.
(3) BTC, at the current price on whatever time/date you are thinking about BTC, has not yet met its adoption threshold, or anywhere near such, like in the
top two visions above. Thus it will do with price and adoption what BTC as a 'black swan event' has done in the past and go up 3x/9x/18x etc in both price
and use and eventual (?) full adoption and acceptance. But we are nowhere near such yet. Thus, get what BTC 'dust' you can and HODL like hell.
So, this is what wanders through my mind (1) when BTC dumps big (2) when BTC goes sideways and is in 'Meh!" mode and (3) when halving is on the horizon
(pick any halving) and the price of BTC pumps.
Anyway, how I cope with the day to day using my 'supposed' BTC mental yoga tricks above. (lame though they may be to others!)
Brad
