Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8407. (Read 26713915 times)

When your retirement approaches, just worry about not having debts when the time comes,
if you have assets, and FIAT necessary to live as now is enough for me, BTC will do the rest.

Surely there is a difference between saying that you love your job and saying that you will work until you die because you love working so much, and actually having the option whether to work or not. 

So, yeah, if you truly have the option to NOT work, then you will find out if you really want to do that job, or if you are going to change your vocation.


I suppose.  If that is how you look at the matter, then so be it.  You can always just keep adding to your wealth by working more, but at some point, you might start to consider that you don't really care about the money that you are making because you have enough to both maintain your standard of living into perpetuity and/or to even increase your standard of living if you so chose. 

There are likely both subjective and objective considerations regarding when you feel that threshold is met.

Of course, we have heard of some examples (even in this thread) where guys pull the trigger too soon, and of course, there is a risk of that happening if the value of a guy's (or even a gal's) richie status is measured from the top of one of BTC's exponential growth periods, rather than measuring from the low point of where bitcoin could go in a worser case scenario, and of course, it becomes even more risky, if a guy were to bet that BTC has less than a 5% chance of going below $5k, and he does not have any other investments (back up plans), and then BTC ends up going below $5k (defying his worse case scenario expectations).

@BitcoinGirl.Club / Pamoldar : Bhai, I am catching up with my backlog as well. You can skip pages, no one going to notice. 

Fair enough.

I will concede that it is quite possible that there may be different ways to frame the same problem, but some people are going to be more receptive to varying frameworks.

Both bitebits and I had also addressed the 80% draw down situation and surely one of the remedies is to sufficiently diversify in order that extreme volatility in any one asset is NOT going to cause you to have to engage in desperate measures, and also there is a possibility that diversification is NOT going to be sufficient either to take away such volatility risk, especially that we will often see that there tends to be so much damned correlation in various asset classes, even during an economic recession , and we cannot be sure about whether bitcoin fixes that or ways in which to diversify in such ways that cause such possible downside volatility to NOT cramp your entrance into fuck you status.

I had personally asserted that the calculation of the value of the assets should be done based on conjecture about their projected price lowpoints, and in another earlier post, I had already stated that today, I would consider $5k to be approximately BTC's current projected price lowpoint, and of course, with the passage of time, BTC's projected price lowpoint should be going up... hopefully.  For example, if BTC price goes to $150k in the coming 2 years, then at that point, I would recalculate its projected price lowpoint to be in the area of about $20k to $30k (of course, $25k in the middle of that, if you want just one number to use).  And, probably such projections of price lowpoints would need to be done with each asset and some assets are likely going to have less extreme than others but would be prudent to consider any asset classes to be capable of a 50% correction (price lowpoint).. especially given the current seemingly irresponsible monetary policies of a lot of fiat systems that inflate the value of many other systems, including equities and real estate.. .one good thing about real estate is that you can still live on it, but its value still might end up plummeting 50% due to various market collapses that would be caused by the various kinds of ongoing fiat irresponsibilities.

Having a cushion could still allow you to say "fuck you" as planned, and maybe the best assurance would be that if a lot of systems collapse at once, then there could be some consolation in the fact that other people are suffering too, yet bitcoin is suppose to fix some of this to the extent that it might not exactly be as correlated to crash as are other assets.  And, I surely would not be suggesting that someone should be considering their investment plan to be solid if they only have bitcoin.. just seems to damned risky to not have spread out into some diversification even though many of us do not have a whole hell of a lot of confidence in several of the traditional asset classes, they still can serve as a hedge against bitcoin.  .. or thinking about it the other way around can be healthy too, bitcoin is a hedge against various traditional investments.

Australian superannuation scheme provides better benefits than US social security with apparently no involuntary contributions from employees, just employer contributions. Social security here in US is very limited, typically removes 6.4% from the paycheck and has some draconian offset rules (WEP and GPO).
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-safety-net-for-retirees-is-generous-and-comprehensive-and-complicated-2019-09-06

I don’t really care about 4%.  The only question is whether through bitcoin I can have more money than I would have had working until retirement.  This is a self fulfilling prophecy - eventually I will get to that point as my time to 65 shrinks every year that passes.  The only question is when that tipping point occurs.  I will keep going until then.  

When you have the ability to leave it. There is little to no difference between slavery and the typical job, except that slaves don't have to look for work while we are forced to beg for the privilege of laboring for others.

Maybe, but it is difficult to do, unless upon getting to that 30X you sell out of ALL btc into traditional vehicles (stocks, bonds, RE).
Otherwise, you have to still count on a possibility of a 60-80% draw-down in btc part (which is exactly what happened to @Searing).
I'm actually digging the inequality (it's already clearing up the numbers in my head, thanks, @HM).

I think that the 4% withdrawal rate or the more conservative 3.33% rate proposed by Bitebits are much easier to calculate - and of course, as you get older (or you see that your years might be numbered) you can increase your withdrawal rate beyond 4% and begin to withdraw into your principle in order that you can clean yourself out (or at least come close to it) before you kick the bucket.

Great notion, we can even simplify this equation by transferring current retirement savings to the left part of inequality.
SA-savings (btc plus plus non-retirement accounts)
RS-current retirement savings (IRA, 401K, Roth, etc)
LE-lifetime earnings remaining (projection)
ES-extra retirement savings produced by more work

retire when

SA+RS>>LE +ES

>> has to compensate for bitcoin volatility.
To be on the safer side, maybe factor in 5:1 or 3:1 excess of the left part over the right part.

I agree with you that there is going to be individual variation, but if you have a savings amount that is in the 25x (by the way, you may have noticed that 25x happens to be able to generate 4% per year, which would match your annual income) plus territory of your annual income, then you are pretty damned close to being able to live passively off of the interest that should be generated from that amount.  

One of the problems is being able to sufficiently calculate that your amount of savings is clearly and solidly into that territory and it is NOT going to meaningfully fluctuate so much as to NOT be actually clearly in that territory.  If all most of your assets are in BTC and it barely gets into the 25x territory, then you decide to pull the fuck you trigger, you would have pulled such trigger too soon, if the damned thing corrects 85%, and causes you to go from 25x to about 4x... you can no longer sustain yourself and you have to go back with tail between your legs... .. So part of the trick is to actually making sure that you have at least 25x in order that you can sustain a 4% per year withdrawal rate.

Once you reach "fuck you" status, you can do whatever you want, including working, if that is what you want to do.. but until you can assure with a pretty solid assessment of the bottom of the value of your various assets that you have reached such fuck you status (I am saying 25x = 4%) then it is best to keep plugging away and just keeping your eyes on your targets in order that you do not proclaim "fuck you" too soon.

 

Edit:

Bitebits beat me to it (try saying that quickly), and said more eloquently too....

When savings exceed your future life time earnings prior to retirement + retirement savings. 

@Searing

So you only had to sell 10% of your bitcoins after it crashed with 80%. You are privileged. It is this primary emotion called greed telling you that you could have sold less or could have had more. It hurts and likely most of us have been there (even people ‘late’ entering during 2017.

You were however over invested needing the dollars in the short term. Glad it worked out for you though.


(And personal opinion: think about why you hold on to those bcash and bsv. Is it as a hedge in case Bitcoin fails? Or is it greed thinking it will increase in value against bitcoin during a bull run? The latter is not a rational decision).

Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself what you want to do.  Personally, I think that it is a pretty BIG ASS waste of time to become too preoccupied with attempting to make up 8.5 BTC or whatever the artificial goal of 100BTC that you are trying to make.  Having 100BTC is too fucking arbitrary, especially for a guy who is 65 years old and may or may not live another 25 years.  To me it seems that having 100BTC just does not matter.

The more important consideration is just figuring out where you are at and I really think that you are no longer in accumulation mode, but instead either in maintenance mode or liquidation mode, which means that you can just decide the amount that you are willing to liquidate each year, and if it remains a possibility that you could panic sell again, then you should just figure out how much is the maximum that you are going to permit yourself to sell each year.. whether it is between 4% and 6% or if you choose some other amount that you believe works for yourself.

You have already suffered from what could happen if you do NOT liquidate enough, which is you end up panic selling.  So to avoid that, it is good to just periodically sell a small portion that fits within guidelines that you choose ahead of time, and likely between 4% and 6% could work... and also maybe you need to consider whether you are ready to start right now, or not.  Regarding using some of your extra cashflow to buy BTC  or to get to your artificial goal of 100BTC, fuck that shit.  Just keep that money in cash, and if the BTC price happens to drop, then just use it to buy small amounts on the way down, otherwise don't fucking worry about trying to get to some artificial goal because it is causing you to overly obsess on that number and then to overly invest in such a way that it is nearly inevitable that you are going to cause yourself another possible panic situation - because we know that King Daddy bitcoin has these tendencies to overshoot in various directions, and sure it is better if it is overshooting in the upwards direction, but it cannot be guaranteed to overshoot in the upwards direction.   


Yeah, overall it seems that you did good to recover some of the amount that you sold, and by the way, BTC prices did go down to $3,124 in December of 2018... so when you sold, you did provide yourself with some insurance during that period.. and insurance is not free, and also hindsight might be 20/20.. but we cannot be kicking ourselves for better ways that we might have played the matter, but instead hopefully learning from the situation in order to figure out if there are ways that we could currently tweak our approach in order to become a bit more comfortable with where we are currently at... including being prepared for either BTC price direction on an ongoing basis.


I am not going to say that you did the wrong thing.




The hookers, lambos and blow part is up to you, and surely it is good to make sure that your investment situation is stabilized before going too much down the consumption rabbit hole.  At the same time, it does not hurt to have some consumption and pleasure budget, especially if you already have various aspects of your investment in decent shape and order.

Sometimes, also, you are going to have a bit of excess of wealth that is building up (and BTC can contribute towards causing that), and in those circumstances, it surely does not hurt to step up the standard of living a bit.  Does not need to be BIG stepping ups, but incrementally stepping up the standard of living can be a good thing.

Sometimes there can be ways to reasonably include expensive chick kinds of expenses into your budget, as long as you are largely calling the shots rather than letting some cute and manipulative chick trick you out of your BTC and other assets more quickly than you would prefer. 

If one, two or 10 chicks slowly milk you out of a decent proportion of your excess BTC over 25 years and such ongoing serial milkenings gives you a lot of pleasure along the way, then it may be well worth the time and money that is spent on such... as long as you are figuring out a way to balance it, too.    Yeah, if you are not used to it, then you surely don't want to jump in too quickly...

Don't get me wrong, I have not paid directly for the company of cuties in any kind of transactional kind of way, but sometimes I have been in relationships in which I have been engaging in expensive consumptive activities including going on trips and going out to eat at nice places (of my choice of course), and spending a decent amount of extra money to wine, dine and travel in various circumstances, so those extra expenses are likely to have taken away from some of my investing in BTC or even preserving my BTC stash, but there are still ways to step up your level of consumption in incremental ways that you can handle and control, and the amount of pleasure can be quite good too..

it can be considered as the whole hookers, lambos and blow idea that is the aspiration that is a bit of an exaggeration, because you might not just jump straight into such increases in luxury... but instead transition into some of those kinds of excesses, and I don't think it is a bad thing to perhaps transition into some excesses in consumption as long as you figure out ways to do it in a way that is good for your own situation while you are cognizant of the limitations of your investments including the reasonable cashflow that you can derive from your investments including the timeline that you have for the investment to last that includes your ability to step up consumption levels, too, and ultimately, you have to be the one that feels good about your uses of your time and money.. including not getting too far over your head into situations that you have screwed up your personal security and/or control over your finances.   

When at around ATH I dumped full time job = retirement is what I thought altcoins could cover for 2.5 years (9 months) = what traditional investments and soc sec and medicare could cover at 66 years and 2 months...that whole 85% BTC dump and 95% or some such altcoin dump hurt big time till circumstances changed and these last 1.5 years not living on crypto in between anymore.

So to me same lifestyle (seemed like a good bet) for retirement 3.5 years early...seemed the way to go.

(20/20 hindsight you merciless bitch!)

Brad

25x your yearly spendings, according to the 4% Safe Withdrawel Rule.
If you like some more safety margin with only 3.33%: 30x

The above numbers however do require you to diversify in investments generating income, like stocks / bonds / real estate / etc. In case you like to keep some bitcoins, the math changes.

I don't do particularly well with too much unstructured time.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and

trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to

the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining

for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as

a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances,

even though the  panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months

and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement)

Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger)

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!)

Brad