Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8408. (Read 26713941 times)

I don't do particularly well with too much unstructured time.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and

trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to

the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining

for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as

a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances,

even though the  panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months

and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement)

Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger)

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!)

Brad

Seems as if you largely held through the whole thing from the top of the late 2017 price rise to present, Jojo......

I am, not sure if you bought more  BTC during the 2018 and 2019 lower prices, but if you largely held your BTC through that whole period, you are not in a bad position, right now.  Bitcoin is 10x higher in price than it was in the beginning of 2017 (a little more than 3 years), and that is not a bad thing.

Sure, profits on paper are not anything to laugh about, but historically we have seen that losses on paper, are not really A BIG DEAL either, especially in bitcoin, as long as the BTC investor has been able to hold onto his/her coins for 4 years or more.  

Well, yes, it is good that you have some extra income, but I really believe that there should not be any major concern to replace the 9 BTC that you sold (and were not able to make up), especially if BTC prices go anywhere close to fulfilling any of the price prediction models, such as stock to flow or the four year fractal model, so you could cash out 4-6% of your BTC stash per year in the coming 25 years (that is if you can live that long) and probably still end up with a decent BTC stash at the end of your life.. and have plenty of extra cash flow from the BTC along the way too.

Of course, if BTC prices end up tanking and not really going up anymore, then your cashing out approach might need to be a bit more conservative, but you still have a decent stash to work with.  There are plenty of folks who are still striving to get somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20BTC arena, so even if you are aggressively cashing out in the coming 10 to 20 years or so, you will still likely have more than 20 BTC at the end of the period.. or at least maybe somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20 BTC arena after cashing out the others at decent prices along the way.

Another thing is that your costs per BTC are well below the $1k per BTC amount, so you have decent profits on each BTC, too, even if BTC prices were to perform a bit more mediocre than the bullish price prediction models are projecting.

You can't laugh at yourself what fun is there..but yeah watching $150 BTC at 1 BTC a day when I started mining Oct 18th, 2013 through the ATH and then the dump to $3,965...

yep, I cracked like an egg...but then again, at that point in time I did NEED the crypto to get me to 66 years and 2 months soc security and traditional investments...things

changed as in the previous post and I have traditional investment $$$ monthly now (that hell could really get hit in the future) so braver....but it is all about risk and reward

and again, having modest lifestyle all these years, except for the occasional toy or trip, when you do get $$$ for whatever reason the LAST thing you want is to raise your

spending lifestyle to what you think you need to be happy etc. That's a trap indeed. So again, from previous posts, my circumstances are right now ideal for HODL'ing due

to the above change in circumstances and my age of 65 and my retirement...and such. What do they say in the ads on T.V. 'conditions my a vary, not for everyone'

Brad



Yep, this is true above "He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl."

"Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?"

Yep on the above....all them pesky 'real-life circumstances' below


Well, since HODL mode, except for mining and electricity and equipment, etc....I managed to HODL through it all from 2013 until 12/24/18 I dumped the 13 BTC.

But at that time (see previous posts) I had retired at 62 years at the ATH and was living off income from crypto until 66 years and 2 months and then I would
crypt
tap into my previous traditional investments at that point. Thus 30 years working with dev disabled/house paid no debt lifestyle...switches to crypto carry over

which I thought I had 3 years of altcoins to cover such ..burnt through that in 9 months with the dump/crash...again same lifestyle then without crypto and

66 years 2 months soc sec and traditional 'balanced' investments at my 65 years of age...again the same lifestyle. So again, retired with no change in money

or lifestyle or what I thought. So dumped the 13 BTC to get through next year or so with altcoins till 66 years and 2 months plan. ie thus panic and sold 13 BTC.

(hey, I only ran in the battle that one time..jeez). So my one great dump of any kind from HODL mode since 2013 and 13 BTC and dumping at the low was based

on panic and circumstances...I really, really was not gonna go back to work for another 1.5 to 2 years so yeah...I dumped 13 BTC indeed and assorted altcoins (at

least they were at the high compared to now)

Then as previous posts state had change in circumstances and monthly income improvement middle of 2019 ...thus the 13 BTC panic sale though understandable

was an overreaction..or not ..without the change in circumstances monthly improvement addition the 13 BTC had to go..since that no longer applies and such

I managed to worm back 4.5 BTC of the original 13 BTC sold in 2019 till now. So any way you are correct the panic did not come out of the blue, real-life pressures

did indeed cause me to panic sell, but one does not at the beginning of 2018 at ATH expect an 85% dump in BTC price and 95% dump in altcoins or whatever the %

ugly that it was. Anyway, circumstances have changed, discretionary money into my traditional investments does not seem prudent at this time, I expect a recession

thus HODL of crypto is probably a better bet now than it was even at these prices in 2018 given the current real-life and world financial health circumstances IMHO.

but what do I now... I panic sold 13 BTC at $3,965 USD...much angst...alas, lost the faith...a lapse in kool-aide drinking refreshment.

later

Brad

Again, what changed is I am in charge of an estate for future trust etc. The IRS does NOT like passing such $$$ on to future generations in the family. So basically I get a %

a month for NOT running off (as IRS expects) and blowing it on hookers and blow ... the estate remains more or less at the same price base to generate interest and grow
 
into the next generation. So for my 'modest' needs (I worked for 30 years with the dev disabled and deaf-blind) and no debts, it comes down to...meh.....my needs are being met

and I'm bored. So yeah the pressure is off to sell BTC/Crypto now (except dubious coins and when to sell dubious sh*tcoins and forks)...So you are correct. Modest lifestyle-wise (ie boring)

I can likely live to 200 on the monthly take. Sometimes it just pays to be dumb and lucky.

So indeed the 13 BTC did go to the last 1.5 years of lifestyle (now I'm 8.5 BTC down heh) But I can HODL at the

same lifestyle and have the monthly income to put some 'dust' into BTC and thus whine about stuff on here...again...retired and bored..so wtf....it is what it is.

My situation has changed and tossing more $$$ in my lifestyle at such is not gonna fix much.

So I can afford to HODL more so now than in the recent past. Of course, IF the next recession comes, or should I say IF not when, and I am

expecting a good 30-40% recession, with some pundits saying it will be 12 years rather than 7 years to come back from such. My views may change if my traditional investments

really tank.

Thus the good old (hopeful) HODL mode of 'Plan B' (and portfolio with stocks setup to 'maintain' rather than grow at my age of 65 years) I should be just 'dandy'.

Again, thus my 'bravery'. Circumstances changed. I sure do miss ASIC mining though, but current tariff, difficulty on any crypto, and big miners and 10c kWh electric costs
to
have really sucked the 'fun' out of that. So alas, 'attic mining' sales to eBay than to BTC and rinse/wash/repeat for dust is going to have to be entertainment enough for now.

It is not like my 100 BTC (now 91.5 BTC) is a big secret....in 2013..it was considered 'small potatoes' at $150 BTC. Everyone knew everyone's stash back then..big whoop!

But yeah, I have little risk in HODL'ing...even if price did drop 1/3 and I dumped....it all is still a win as all 'evolved' from a KNC Jupiter 550gh miner in 2013 that cost me

$5,131.80. It is not like 'any' money from my modest dev disabled deaf-blind job went into the BTC business for electric or whatever..so again, the risk to me is non-existent.

No matter how bad this all gets, I will always show a profit. It can be debated on IF I HODL too long or IF I SOLD too soon or any % thereof....but I can afford this modest risk.

when you consider the source of all the wrangling/LTC to BTC/Altcoin ASIC mining to BTC and other shenanigans I did to eventually accumulate my BTC is all based on

that first piece of equipment to generate/wrangle current hoard...well sh*t...what I'm stating is here everyone needs to get to a place of 'excess' in their own minds on BTC/Crypto

on what they can accumulate and HODL IMHO. Again, in my previous messages, I claim a 1/3 chance of BTC/Crypto going parabolic again. What if BTC goes to 50K? How prepared

are you to risk some to get much and of course the chance of the risking some and losing all? The scary point is what if we all are still in the early stage of BTC use and price?

What is MORE interesting to me is if I would have done sh*t in 2015 and just stayed in HODL mode, I'd be almost even with all the mining of BTC

and re-investing BTC into ASIC equipment and the rest, sure, it worked a bit better, but hardly worth just having the BTC sit around and have BCH and

BSV falls out of the sky on to my BTC addresses. So with my mining of 'dubious' Altcoins, from what I figure in actual BTC combining such, even with forked coins, I'd end up pretty

much in the same boat.

My point is there is a lot of 'running about' here and there in BTC/Crypto....only thing that makes sense to me is HODL and hope it does go parabolic. I tell people to get some 'dust'

for small risk and hopefully from now the same big or bigger rewards, I have gotten since 2013. Again, I expect the next recession to be a doozy.....some of that determines my

actions as well.

But 20/20 hindsight was a lot of frigging work mining, to end up in the same place as just sitting on hands in 2015 in full HODL mode.

Also, remember some of what I post is in storytelling mode ie...don't do what I did kinda thing if I can't laugh at my panic sell (not kidding about the 9-year-old yelling and

some tears selling at $3,965) well what fun is being on here sharing stuff.

As they say, BTC/Crypto is in the long-term a win/no-win scenario. I am at an age 65 years that maybe

I have 25 years left and will be grabbing cute female nursing home aides asses and croak falling out of my wheelchair from the excitement. So risk, meh!

Also, if you live long enough, the only currency in a Nursing Home is stories. You got a robe/toothbrush/shaver/slippers and rich as hell or not it is all the same.

The only currency is stories. Thus BTC works...great story....BTC dumps....sad story...rich as hell or poor as hell ..if you live long enough that is how it shakes out.

So...I suppose...I could blow a lot of my stash in the future. I have to have a real 'reason' above the lifestyle I have now. I don't need to pass money down...my relatives

younger than me are set. I'm single. No debt. So again, circumstances are such where this 'risk' people talk about with me is all about how much 'profit' me or my heirs

could come away with, in reality. I likely won't need to touch such. So I will either be praised for HODL'ing too long or damn'd for selling too soon. But again, in

the great scheme of things at my age...I'm trying to make everything an adventure..and whatever happens with BTC/Crypto it has been a 'hell' of a lot of fun since I started

in 2013. So for now, letting it ride and using 'attic mining' to clean out the stuff in the attic for cash to go into BTC dust for stuff to do.

Again, some of this is with what I tell is tongue in cheek....like for example when LTC was worth $1.80 and I was selling for BTC and I mined 12,969 of them....yeah..we

start talking about 'missed boats' and it is a whole nother thread......or looking at ETH page on ICO and at what was it $300 BTC too cheap to buy 1,000 for 1 BTC in the ICO.

I've been left at the dock more times at my 'ship that was supposed to come in' than a girl in trouble waving at the ships at sea wondering if someone will see me.

So yeah, you are correct, Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom....I can afford to take more risks that may be prudent for anyone else or indeed even myself...but retirement

and boredom are dangerous things..thus the attic mining for dust endeavors

Good to have goals.

Brad

Watch how ez that dip gets bought up in BTCull $eason.

evolve? aren't you in a good mood tonight? lol

tough shit

they can tighten their belts and evolve, or mine at a loss for a while, which would actually be the wise choice

Around $10K (fractal-projected) in June-July area would be really tough on miners.
Maybe, $12-14K would be more amenable.
$10K is the same as $5k now, which is money losing for the majority.

All things considered and since the numbers were revealed...our Brad here would be at around $10mil if/when 100K...he'll be OK, lol.
$10mil gives you a 300K/year cash flow without even touching the principle. A nice pension, indeed.
Just don't use your coins to lend on some of these newcomer blockfies and celsiuses, me thinks.
Not your keys...

Ok, fair enough. But even if both methods are flawed, for the purposes of combating the virus it is probably better that people take it serious which they really don't when they see 2%.

Well just my 2 cents, but if I were you that would be the first thing I would sell instead of BTC if I needed the cash. 

[Large corporate boardroom filled with suited executives]

Exec #1 (Graham Chapman): Item six on the agenda: “The Meaning of Life.” Now uh, Harry, you’ve had some thoughts on this.

Exec #2 (Michael Palin): Yeah, I’ve had a team working on this over the past few weeks, and what we’ve come up with can be reduced to two fundamental concepts. One: People aren’t wearing enough hats. Two: Matter is energy. In the universe there are many energy fields which we cannot normally perceive. Some energies have a spiritual source which act upon a person’s soul. However, this “soul” does not exist ab initio as orthodox Christianity teaches; it has to be brought into existence by a process of guided self-observation. However, this is rarely achieved owing to man’s unique ability to be distracted from spiritual matters by everyday trivia.

Exec #3 (Terry Jones): What was that about hats again?

I spent a whole day watching nature documentaries a while back and came away with a feeling of overwhelming pointlessness. All anything alive wants to do is eat and fuck. It's not exactly meaningful. Rocks probably have more enriching inner lives.

That day I stopped worrying about the fate of the planet and refilled my fridge with CFCs.

There's an entire universe out there with other potentialities. There could be trillions of races of golden gods right now knocking out lovely watercolours and being nice to each other. We're nowt but noisy dust.

^

I didn't want to say it (the actual BTC count) but Searing himself did it again... With almost 100BTC he still have, no one can dare to say he did not do well. He just secured some profits when he thought he would MAYBE need the FIAT to last till retirement payments come. A somewhat small (around 10%) percentual amount. And probably that made him be a stronger holder with the rest of his more than healthy stash.

So, considering it all, he is way far from being a "bottom seller" but a strong hodler... even if he did sell "some" near the bottom.