Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8409. (Read 26713953 times)

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I didn't want to say it (the actual BTC count) but Searing himself did it again... With almost 100BTC he still have, no one can dare to say he did not do well. He just secured some profits when he thought he would MAYBE need the FIAT to last till retirement payments come. A somewhat small (around 10%) percentual amount. And probably that made him be a stronger holder with the rest of his more than healthy stash.

So, considering it all, he is way far from being a "bottom seller" but a strong hodler... even if he did sell "some" near the bottom.

This is pretty much how I see things. How long were dinosaurs around for? Millions of years. We're but a tick of a clock in comparison. Something will wipe us out well before the dinosaurs, and it'll inevitably be our own undoing. Whether that be climate change, genetically engineered bio-weapon, AI robots gone rogue, general war, over population, genetic engineering gone wrong, inadvertent EMP, and any number of other possibilities. We'll be lucky if we get another 100K years.

In hindsight it made sense. I was in HODL mode from real low (2013) till the ATH (what was it like 18k) and watching it go down to $3,965 seemed prudent to do.

I 'think' that the price went down to actually $3,400 per BTC. So again, with much, crying and tantrums like a 9-year-old child I sold.

So at least I learned my 'limits'.

Also, I had my original 100 BTC in 2015. I coulda/should just have 'stayed put'

But I did the whole ASIC mining and selling above and altcoins and the rest. If I sold BCH and BSV and the other forked

coins from this mess, that did not exist in 2015, I'd actually be ahead. Not sold such yet.

So with the above Altcoins etc all made off this 2015 move/groove/and hustle mining etc from 2015 till 2/14/19 when I stopped mining completely.

I would be right back at 100 BTC or a few coins over. Mostly due to BCH and BSV etc.

So what I SHOULD DO and am simply stalling is 'sell' those sh*coins to get back to 100 BTC and 2015 in that manner.

Of course in the last 3 weeks, most of my, I mean, really, sh*coins like LISK and Siacoin have doubled or more. Indeed all have. So I am a bit befuddled on how or

when to pull the trigger on this. One thing about Bitcoin and Crypto you usually look at the situation of price/buy a miner/hodl/ or whatever until it gets down to BTC and

Crypto's most basic question. Do I buy and HODL? Do I gamble on Equipment? Do I get this sh*tcoin or mine such or the other?

It is quite binary. Always distilled to one choice or the other choice.

So it goes. On all life-changing actions with the above BTC/Crypto/Sh*tcoins, I am fairly confident If I posted on Facebook my choices by flipping a coin from 2013 till now

I'd be no worse off then the half-ass guessing I've done in the past.

So now it is a fairly easy choice. I have narrowed my self-introspection on this in the following format.

My main 3 guessing games with BTC/Crypto at any given time/day/moment/and or year.

(1) BTC will (due to adoption level) drop to 1/2 of whatever the daily price is at the time you contemplate these  3 views. Again, the adoption level reached. And now at say

4x the price of gold would at this level act as a 'traditional stock market' investment on return year by year from this point on...ie...modest boring returns.

(2) BTC, taking whatever the current price is, as you ponder these questions. Will now, again due to adoption being reached say, from this price point on now goes

sideways in price and acts like a traditional investment stock market return year by year from this point onward..ie...modest boring returns.

(3) Same thought experiment as above with current price, whatever it is when you ponder these 3 coping mechanisms.  So this being the 3rd choice and current

price of BTC as you ponder this, BTC does its historical thing, price-wise and goes 'parabolic' and up 4x/8x/12x/18x current price, etc because of adoption as a store of value and use

in these uncertain times is NOT met yet. And BTC/Crypto will take on the adoption of gold or beyond as a store of value in the (coming IMHO) trying times. Why the heck not?

So for me, when it gets weird, I think of the 3 things above at whatever particular hour/day/time/year and/or BTC price. In that I've been in since 2013 and such, it seems much more

soothing to look at the 3 guesses above and just HODL. Anyway, how I make lemonade when BTC and crypto tend to speculatively go bat sh*t crazy using no logic I can fathom.

So the only real issue I have not DIRECTLY addressed yet (coward that I am) is when I am gonna dump BCH and BSV and my sh*tcoins to get back to a 100 BTC or so.

In that, in the last month, they have gone up 2x and 3x respectively on everything, so I am currently on the fence, on when to dump and convert such to BTC.

But I've made my peace with the great scheme of thing using my 3 part guessing game above. So again, everyone stumbles, it is how you pick your

self up and/or is the risk/reward worth it?

If the whole open-source decentralized BTC/Crypto universe goes *poof*. Replaced by National coins or Banker coins with the usual spin.

If they win this fight for the future of BTC/Crypto at least I can say I fought the good fight. Everyone has a limit they won't be pushed past. Above is my 'line in the sand' and

funky way of looking at stuff day to day as to not be 'too crazy' with this whole BTC/Crypto Speculation that I am involved in since 2013.

What we do on WO and in life with HODL'ing is called "Speculation". My status as of now. Of course, I cracked once and could crack again and sell some BTC. But for such to

occur I can state with absolute fact, that it is gonna have to be well, well, BELOW the $3,965 BTC price I cracked at last time. As to the rest of the above. That is why I call it a 'coping

mechanism' for something to do/justify be it wrong/or right.....guidelines.

So anyway, my 2 Shatoshi's worth on how I'm looking at things these days. Likely all is more than a bit delusional, but the framework works for me in both the dumping

of BTC be the price too low and I hope the same logic works when the price is too high by most accounts. Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad

People don't realize one thing: Mother nature doesn't f-ck around.
All stories about lab escape are irrelevant from a historical perspective.
We, humans, exist as a species for only 180K years, give or take, a very "young" species.
There are lots of us and we differ very little (0.1% or so at the DNA level).
Read the story of bananas. Once there is a dominant homogeneous species, it almost always gets wiped out, like prior banana "version".
What i am getting at is this: as planet is warming up (it does not matter due to humans or not) and our population grows and becomes more urban, further "weird" epidemics are inevitable.
We already got HIV, Corona, zika (affecting brain development), brain eating amoeba in fresh water, antibiotic resistance, etc.
I am afraid that we, humans, would be culled, which would suck big time.
As I was thinking about this, I remembered the "Children of men". Maybe artists/authors have a pre-cognition of some sort.

This all is too sad to think about, let's celebrate life which we are still having.

horsey faced lesbian?











totally get the bit about Koo Stark though...what a fucking wanker

My current TA for today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf

control the population!

That's a right kick in the teeth

heh yeah. im doing taxes and see the odd sh*tcoins that have just been sitting there doing nothing but generally losing value. against btc anyway.

ive forgotten why i even bought a few of odd bags.

the shame.. what was i thinking???

Absolutely.  Even the best case scenario (which is about what you are describing) does not bode well for the world economy.  Consumer electronics are another area that have become essentially woven into our social structure and the production of these things is about to be seriously disrupted.

Genuinely just saw this tweet


@alistairmilne
Pro tip: don't take your private keys on a boat...

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1228729804565905408?s=21

Bleh, he did what he thought he had to do at the time. Taking into account what % of his stash does that 13BTC (now reduced to 9) represent and his early retirement circumstances is essential to understand it. He has previously given enough figures to accurately know it. Retrospectively it is easy to say he could have done better... but hedging, when needed, is always expensive. In the big scheme of things, it won't matter THAT MUCH. He will do *WELL*.

Searing is not stupid and he will do well as he was *way far* from going all out. It is imposible to be right all the time and for all of actions, more so without being able to predict the future.

My way of thinking is that, if the following things are true:

1. You only invest what you can afford to lose,
2. Your quality of life is already at a decent level,
3. You understand Bitcoin tech,
4. You are not greedy,

...then you don't panic easily. You can HoDL down to even under $1k and not flinch. "Let it go to zero. I'm already doing OK, I don't really need it." That's what I say to myself when there's a big dip, and that's because of (1), (2), and (4). And if there's a big dip, I try to buy more coins, because of (3), but always respecting (1).

If you get scared easily and chicken out at big dips, you're doing it wrong.

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out or waiting till you are old-as-fuck...

I am in absolutely no position to judge, having abjectly failed to harvest any benefit from the last bubble.  I actually typed "parabolic-er-er-er" at one point yet failed to sell due to greedfear.

The Mayor and I, leaning against each other sweating, horking into our NASA logo barf bags, hodling resolutely through the peak...

Emotions man, strong stuff.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

Novo's puppy.

the funny thing is, it all depends on how much free cash you have.
Example: let's say you (or Novo, lol) bought $10 mil of a s--t token. the token went from $3 to 1c, so your stake is worth almost nothing.
No matter, you buy another $10mil worth at 1c (there are enough tokens to do that), s--t token goes to 8c, you sell at 7c and MADE 50mil in profit.
The above scenario is purely hypothetical, of course.

pumped from .0000291 to .0000955 in the last day whatever it is

dem's wages

(after some googling) it was almost $3 on jan 9 2018, and has been a few cents since then.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining!

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now.

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery.

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect.

later

Brad

the fuck is a WAXP?