Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8659. (Read 26723496 times)

Thanks for the reply. As you said, a nice, round $1 million would be more than enough for most people in most countries. I believe the "classic" 21 BTC is a good amount to have, which makes the above goal almost a certainty. As for me, my stash has increased since that post of mine that you've quoted, but still in double digits (*), so I guess I still have some way to go before I can consider myself financially independent, whatever that may mean to each one of us. I can safely say, however, that if when BTC/USD reaches or exceeds $100k, my personal goal (not necessarily the one stated above) will have been reached by a good margin.

(*) The above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...

Because, you know, we will be the only ones doing that, so it will work for sure.

Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top 

It would be great for the bullish trend to spread.



Twiter: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1218556125366444032


Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/18/bitcoin-on-the-cusp-of-a-massive-rally-as-analysts-closely-watch-monthly-close/

heck, we can do better...a WO wonderful hatcoin (WOW or WOH).

The number of coins is limited to xhomerix -issued (he is the treasurer).
Should be no more than 100-150 so far, a few more later. This is a strict one hat-one token situation (collectible).
Or, maybe one hat gives you 10-100 coins so it is somewhat more liquid, so you can give your heroes a coin or two.
Could be a sidechain if we don't want ERC-something.

I have a great idea.

How about "we" make digitally scarce bitcoin kittens, that would be an innovative (and non-scammy) idea, right?  We could make them WO thread exclusive, with hats.    xhomerx10, are you in?

Oh wait?

 

#Technicality:   You did use the word(s) "won't," which I have bolded above, which essentially means something quite similar to "never," but who gives any shits?  

We don't need to get caught in the technicalities of your exact wording, because it does not matter much.

The overall essence of what you said remains the fact that some people seem to be overly relying upon super-fantastic BTC returns in a short period of time, and that is just a dangerous mindset and a recipe for achieving a RECKT status.  

Each person can do what s/he wants in terms of mindset, but each person also deserve to be proclaimed as "delusional fools," when they are not adequately couching and qualifying their views about the road to $400k, to the extent such a road might exist, even if such proclamations of "delusional fool" status are not necessarily literal or even necessarily personal attacks.  

Points are sometimes better relayed with a bit of potentially argumentative (combative perhaps?) emphases.  

Because up-and-down-and-up-and-down make traders rich?

I dont understand what fight bears are fighting? We will pass $9k so why not just let it happen?

Right...I want to be the secretary of education, though since..wait, I need to focus my eyes.
https://youtu.be/OoZ1-xPbNHg?t=19

President's role is a tossup between The dude, Bob and V8 (mysterious and vague).

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc.

I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble.

That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday:




https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449

Which direction Bitcoin will go?



Silver vs Bitcoin  

Damn.  Heading out in the storm for a coffee now.

 McDonalds in USA is $1.49 for a large coffee.  It's not bad either!  Where I am, they will have a special for about a month out of the year where any size coffee is a buck.
Tim Hortons coffee is $1.79 for a large but it's really an extra large because they dont have a small anymore.  Long story.
 

Yes.

That's the plan.

Hahahaha


had to re-post this for the mere hilarity of it, especially the "delusional fools" part, which is truly a deserved lil dig...

IOW... great points, bitserve.    


By the way, I would not say that BTC won't go to $400k, but surely no one should be counting on anything near that in order to be able to get rich, even though BTC prices might go there, it seems crazy to have to rely on such a scenario in order to profit stupendously.... Also, I am not asserting that any of the actual words of bitserve's above post should be changed, at all in order to clearly make the point(s) that he made



Totally agree; I think.

Seems that you hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.  That is one of the secrets of making sure that you are not creating goals and expectations that are not realistic and/or setting yourself up for disappointment.. but at the same time, in bitcoin, your hopes for $400k should not go without any preparation.. just that $400k scenario is not the main plan, but instead the "prepared just in case plan".. the hopium that has some roots..

In other words, you are not going to find me cashing out at $100k or $200k or even $400k merely because I believe that those amounts are all a bit pie in the sky.. like bitserve suggested, don't need those amounts to be greatly richie... ...  

In other words (am I running out of words, yet.. Oh, yeah, I almost forgot, I am a badly programmed bot, so I tend to repeat my lil selfie a lot) , if the better scenarios end up happening, you are still in profits.  

Here's the example:  you can hope for the best by having skin in BTC with the outrageous UP scenarios, so let's say that you prepare for $17k, or $35k, or $70k, but $400k ends up happening, you still have some stake in BTC in order to continue to cash out all the way up...  but you also have to cash some reasonable amounts out along the way in case only $17k or $35k, or $70k, and some other lower than $400k amount ends up playing out.  

I would not characterize cashing out as DCA..

but it is more like the opposite of buying on the dip.  Sure buying on the dip could transition into a kind of DCA, but it still is a bit of a different concept than DCA.

Each of us needs to decide where exactly we are in our timeline, too, which causes us to consider how long do we think that we are going to live which will cause us to determine if we are in accumulation phase, maintenance phase or liquidation phase (not necessarily going to be a pure phase either).

If you are in your 50s or 60s, you likely are going to feel decently comfortable transitioning into a kind of maintenance / liquidation balance, but if you are in your 30s or 40s, fuck, you have the potential of a lot more time that could cause you to NOT be able to sustain passive income from how much BTC you have accumulated (and your other investments); therefore, when you are younger like that you gotta be careful to make sure that you have enough before you really declare yourself to be clearly out of any kind of BTC accumulation phase.. In other words, you better have a fuck load of extra BTC to make sure you are good in the event that BTC goes from $100k back down to $10k.. .and yeah, maybe having some other hedges as well.

Even though it does not hurt to bat around some of these ideas because we have some similar comparison points and similar considerations that each of us has to go through in order to individualize our investment considerations, but in the end, no one can really establish what those boundaries are going to be besides yourself, and if you end up going too much into maintenance/liquidation stage before you are actually ready, your youth might end up biting you in the ass because you end up having 50 more years that you have to support yourself based on your relatively early decision-making.

Few of us more elderly folks are likely going to refuse if we could get back 20 more years in order to have that time, but any of us who are no longer in our 30s will likely recognize that decisions that we made in our 30s had contributed to our current financial trajectory and surely it is nice to be quite set in our 50s versus many peers who might be somewhat struggling in that time of life.. cannot really blame them, because there is a decent range and very likely that people are going to have to work in their 50s 60s and 70s a bit more than they would have wished upon themselves when they were thinking about their situation when they were younger and able to transition themselves into a possibly decent financial cushion or trying to retire too early and then getting fucked.

I feel like I am going to miss the ATH again. Feels all over 2017.

This next pump will separate the believers from the get rich quick guys. Believers are ready to go to zero.   But...

ARE YOOUUUU READY???!!!11??

Well, as you have correctly said, it depends on many factors so first you would need to think in FIAT terms (which is how most mundane things are priced) and establish a goal.

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

ANyway, as I said, let's use the $1 million figure. So then, if you have 10 BTC, you would need a solid $100K price to reach that goal. Or just less than $50K if you have the "classic" 21BTC.

Most people with a three digit amount of BTC, we could consider they have already almost made it. Two digits... maybe soon, if we get lucky in the next few years.

Everyone needs to make their own numbers. And also remember that there is no guarantee of anything.

Of course that is if someone decides to cash out everything (or most) when the price target is reached. Which is not what I would suggest to do.

It would be much more reasonable, yet risky, to just keep cashing out as needed, even if you already reached your "goal". More so if you expect Bitcoin will keep rising during the next years or even decades.

Also, who said someone that just arrives right now to Bitcoin with barely any savings could easily just come and retire by investing what he can? That's not how the world (or nothing) works.

I understand the "retire" and "financial independence" point... but no, no one has any guarantee of that. And the only ones that have been in that position thanks Bitcoin it is either because:

1- They were extremely lucky in their entry point and/or decisions
2- They arrived later but they took the risk of investing a sizeable amount of money.
3- They hodled for MANY years. (ie. I am now on my 7 year some others way longer).

Bitcoin was never intended to be a get rich quick scheme, even if it resulted like that in some cases. For most it won't be a "retirement level" profit, just a better or worse investment.

As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.