She is right at what she is posting latter. But the first post you quoted is really silly. Bitcoin price is so unstable that will be way different next week not just a year from now. The point she is right about is that future trading makes bitcoin more stable. So growths and declines will be less sharp. Both ways will be more stable not just the way up. And that is good, money need to be as stable as can be.
The first serious derivative salvo arrived just at the death of the last bubble and since then it's been a steady decline into poo soup.
She's right to raise the possibility. That's unquestionably where most of the 'institutional investors' will prefer to go, but everything flies out the window if there's proper a bubble on or the sniff of one.
We need all this new guff to be present for another 2-3 complete cycles before its effects can be properly analysed. Until then it's just groping in the dark.
As posters have said, nobody can claim to know for sure, and that includes the most bullish cheerleaders....
So, there is indeed a possibility that BTC does not rise due to the next halving. There have only been 2 halvings so far, way too little for a certain judgment. Price is always dependent on demand first and foremost... supply is important, but it is secondary.
The next bubble, if and when it happens , will have to be a function of a very large amount of fresh capital entering the market. The numbers required are much larger now than in previous bull phases.
I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present. Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not... supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.
