I am not asserting that you are NOT telling the truth, but it does seem a bit strange for any of us BTC HODLers to NOT attribute a decent amount of significance to the surprising dynamics of the April 1 to June 27 period.
I was trading in that period, but only long positions. Unfortunately I don't have trace of the details. As I said earlier, my shorts only began with the latest bear market in 2018. Originally it was meant as a hedge.
You know I had been thinking that bitcoin's doubling in late 2015 was quite amazing, and it took place from about October 15 to November 5, but the rise was so goddamned gradual until the decisive break above $320 that brought BTC's prices up to $504 from November 1 to November 4.
Before 2016 I wasn't trading at all.
I know that you are probably starting to suspect that I am either stalking you or becoming a pest, but the relevant period for this particular line of "interrogations" is April 1, 2019 to June 27, 2019.. our most recent exponential BTC price run up.. and clearly you had been in the BTC shorting practice already, after having had gotten a decent amount of experience under your belt during our somewhat deep and painful bearish period of 2018.
Yes, a bit of a pest indeed.
And, also this 2019 BTC price run up would have been a BIG one to actually challenge any ongoing BTC shorting strategy. That is if you would have kept your BTC shorting strategy as ongoing and it seems like you are saying that you weren't, even though there would not have seemed to have been any reason (except in retrospect) to actually NOT expect a significant and meaningful correction of 30% or more.. which is quite common in BTClandia.. but did not really seem to happen during this 2019 BTC price run up.
You made me take a look at my transfer history. I did well in the 2019 Spring Bull. And yes, in the Spring Bull I've been running all three basic strategies (one at a time), with the one-legged long less frequent than the two-legged balanced, more price agnostic approaches that tickle your curiosity. Maybe the surplus transfers (profit accumulation) were a bit less frequent transfers, OK. In retrospect, I could have done better by simply longing and waiting, hindsight 20/20 and all that. But as long as the bull run has pullbacks (and that one had quite a few IIRC), a bit of short scalping on the side doesn't hurt. More than anything, it's a safety net if things go astray. Otherwise, it's an encumbrance. No free lunch, of course, but knowing how whimsy and wanton she is, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
Caution is the reason most of my shorts have stops before the disaster line. When I'm feeling unsure, and she smells like she's raising her head, I can tighten the stop and let the short go, at a loss. The same goes for the other leg, although I tend to cling to my longs with more pride. I've been swallowing small losses on both sides recently, including April-June 2019, and I did post about that at the time. Maybe you could go and dig out those posts. That would also help me to reconstruct past history.
I was just using those older dates of late 2015 as a relative comparison of the magnanimity of this particular 3.5x BTC price rise (with hardly any significant price corrections of 10% or more within that decently extended 3 month period).
Ah, now I see.
I occasionally post "trading disclosures", as I call them. Since I don't have an all-encompassing rule book (and I probably never will), the best way to figure out how things are going is keep an eye on those disclosures.