Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9732. (Read 26623616 times)

Yes, I felt as if we were doomed since getting into bitcoin, but for some reason BTC prices keep going up.

Hopefully you will not get shaken from your BTC by worrying about irrelevant bullshit such as tether fud claiming manipulation.

O.k.  makes sense.  Therefore, Aristotle was right.  It's gotta be physical or no gonna work.

TLDR:  Bitcorn ded.

Good luck getting the 'real' Satoshi to show itself on the verge of people claiming the price is going to $100k - $1 million a coin while only having a $3k cost of production or $6k post halving.  Meaning it's completely impossible without mining expanding so much that it would use more power than every nation on earth.  So it either fails to generate the Ponzi profits people claim then goes into a death spiral leaving everyone homeless, or every square inch of the world is covered in ASIC miners and instantly banned.  Either way he would be facing a firing squad as the Ponzi comes to a conclusion one way or another.

I randomly found that old post of mine from since the last pump started, reminding me how the ones fighting BTC in order to tame it are playing the people.


I don't know if using alts would bring any benefit since the prices are still tied with BTC's price, maybe having like 5 to 10 different coins with no correlation to one another and banning USDT and other fiat-supported fake coins from exchanges would help.
Unfortunately the main users of crypto are people with little or no idea on how economies and the leaders of this world operate. Sure, there are some exceptions, but even among the whales there are many who became whales by accident and not by knowledge and skills.

I'm sorry for being pessimistic, I guess I kinda feel we're doomed! Yet, I'll keep on holding!!

I am not sure if I like the word "losses", but I get what you are saying, so surely towards the end of 2014 beginning of 2015, that was towards the worst time of my own average cost per BTC in comparison to the then price.  So I believe that towards the end of 2014, my average cost per BTC was in the $550 territory, and that was when the BTC price first started dipping below $200, so yeah, I was maybe in the 65% negative territory.  I had some other emergency situation that happened at that time too that ruined my cashflow, so between about February 2015 and May 2015, was not really able to take advantage of relatively low BTC prices and to buy BTC.  There were some people telling me to sell a portion of my BTC during that time in order to meet some of my cashflow obligations, but I got through the period and began to buy small amounts of BTC again in June-ish.  So by the end of 2015, my average cost per BTC was in about the $500 range and maybe even dipping below $500, and we know that at the end of 2015 price shot up to $500 and then took a break for about 6 months before going above $500 again at the end of May 2016.  Pretty much it was unambiguously clear that I was "in profits" after the May 2016 break above $500.


Yeah, but pretty much the whole of 2015 stayed in a price trough, and late 2014 was the beginning of the shock of that situation.  I've said it before, but there were so many price dips in 2014 and I had pretty much thought that the bottom was in in the $380s towards the end of 2014, but it ended up that we got nearly another halvening of the BTC price, and ended up largely bouncing between $220 and $280 for the vast majority of 2015.



Maybe some of us are becoming OGs, even though there are some older timers than us who have been able to hang onto a decent portion of their coins.  There are some OGs in our era and even older OGs who have not been able to hang onto a decently size portion of their cheaper acquired BTC stash.



My averages move too, and I am frequently doing a bit of a ballpark.  I am surely not trying to exaggerate my gains, so if anything, I will try to account for any expenses that I might have along the way in order to give some fair renditions of my overall average cost per coin.  Furthermore, sometimes i will make some kinds of screw ups that cause my average cost per BTC to go up, but thereafter, I will trade sell on the way up and buy on the way down, and overall, those transactions do seem like they end up bringing my average cost per BTC back down.  By the way, regarding my selling about 3.5% my stash in November 2018 and then subsequently buying 25% or more back, I provide a kind of ballpark for how that played out, but some time in the future, I may have to go through the situation with a more fine toothed comb in order to really provide an accounting that I believe to be more representative in terms of how my average cost per coin is affected and the extent to which I might consider some of those coins to have just been completely removed from the game (which because of timing is how it shows up on my taxes).




Seems as if I have better hopes and options than that, especially since I did not sell all of my coins in the $700 arena.  I got a pretty decent cushion, and let's see how it plays out... Roach wants to compete regarding this? 

I understand that you are a lot of doom and gloom in regards to bitcoin, so you want to scare people off of bitcoin, right?

I believe that you are giving too much power to the interwebs, and this thread.  I doubt that anything that we really do is going to matter.  Bitcoin is likely going to continue to attract value and some of that will come from gold, no?  What do you want to compare bitcoin?  Gold, silver, some amalgamation?  I bet that bitcoin beats gold on a 2 year time line and then on a 5 year time line, and I am not sure if it matters from there, no?  We have to reassess our investments from time to time, so none of us should be completely locked in for more than 5 years, are we?  We should have some flexibility to reapportion every 5 years or 5 years into the future-ish, no?

Satoshi accidently posted his IP once, which showed he was in the California area at the time.

Edit: source

Bitcoin does not solve Byzantine generals because the basis of Byzantine generals is really just a Sybil attack and Bitcoin is not, and has never been Sybil proof when it's possible for the same guy to own every mining pool on earth in secrecy.  A single guy can therefore be operating right out in the open in a 51%+ attack state in perpetuity.  This has likely been the real world case for a good duration of Bitcoin's existence with the Bitmain monopoly and ownership of more than one pool, and secretly stashing hash power in different pools.

To attempt to fix this problem, you would need to use the Andrew Miller idea of non-outsourceable puzzle box to prevent the use of pools at all.  In that scenario, there would be more incentive for large hash rate actors to keep their hash rate pooled in the same place instead of diffusing it and would be more easy to identify, but since they can still selectively hide their resources in multiple locations to operate wide out in the open as a 51%+ monopoly, essentially colluding with themselves - Sybil - Bitcoin would still not solve Byzantine generals.  

It's 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency for numerous reasons such as this, from transaction validators being designed to centralize, to being unable to even check how centralized they are.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Whoaza. I'm gonna have to rethink my beliefs about BTC scarcity or the lack thereof, due to the lack of bitcoin's physicality beyond a bunch of electrons floating on wires and through space.  Surely those electrons, including the ones and zeros are not sufficiently physical.


Surely, I could not be smarter than Aristotle, but I am more likely to be smarter than several no coiner bitcoin naysayers such as Roach who sold all of his bitcoins in the $700 price territory.  Sometimes I have my doubts, but frequently roach does make me feel as if I am smart, and I am just a normal guy who did not sell his coins in the $700s.

In other words, I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to out run dee roach, which does not seem to be a difficult task on most days.

Easy, ignored button.

That is part of the problem of getting too caught up on technological reasoning rather than sound money reasoning.

The new and improved bitcoin 2.0s might be better, but who gives any shits.

Bitcoin remains superior even if some of the others come up with better technology, because bitcoin is not broken.  You gotta cause bitcoin to actually be broken or inferior in a stupendous way before the improvement of various technicals actually matters.


That's part of the point that you don't seem to get Amateur_.  You see that neither kingcolex nor anyone in bitcoin needs to prove anything.

Shitcoins have to prove themselves and convince peeps to go over to them before any kind of burden might shift to bitcoin to have to prove itself.

If you believe that you see enough supposed deficiencies in bitcoin, then go ahead and invest in those other projects with the wish that bitcoin's network effects are going to transfer over to those other coins.  You will be just like a whole hell of a lot of other wishful thinking shitcoin supporters who are endlessly and likely futilely waiting for their coin to pump and for Bitcoin's network effects to go over to them, when bitcoin is not sufficiently broken enough to cause peeps to move.



Yes.  Sounds like you want to continue to be blind.  Yes.  Wait for the arguments that bitcoin is better, they are not going to come.  So you can go off and choose your other coin or just chose to be another loser nocoiner who will be chasing the bitcoin train in the next few years when it goes above $100k... or maybe you won't start chasing the bitcoin train until is is in the supra $500k arena.


Again.... you think that bitcoin has some kind of burden to prove itself.  It doesn't.  It already has the gravity of sound money, if you happen to understand what that is.


Likely most value is going to gravitate into the asset with the strongest sound money features, and there are no other coins or projects that even come close to bitcoin in this regard, so until such a thing happens that some other coin has a stronger sound money situation, then value will gravitate into bitcoin as the most sound of the assets.  Believe it or don't.  Study it or don't.  Look for arguments to support your suspicions that bitcoin is not technologically special, and those kinds of arguments are all over the place for you to buy into while you remain an ongoing and persistent nocoiner bitcoin skeptic.  Good luck in your travels and your other likely to be inferior investments.


S/he/it is here to teach us that bitcoin likely has some technological inferiorities, so therefore, we should wait for a better technology or invest in some other more technologically superior coin(s).


Oh gawd!!!!   

I think there's some sort of extreme mental illness in a lot of humans.  Take for example this Dan Morehead guy from Pantera Capital and Mike Novogratz.  I don't know the exact number, but these people are worth like half a billion to a billion dollars.  Besides building a Dyson sphere, it's enough money to do just about whatever you want to do.  Instead of going off and doing whatever, these people spend their lives in financial conferences to try and make EVEN MORE money off financial Ponzi scams.

So, at that point none of it is really about anything other than power over other humans, which leads to two pathways - some form of latent psychopathy, or a more general, primitive, bonobo-style, ape-like desire to be the most important ape in the totem pole. In other words, it's not really possible for these people to be 'advanced' or smart.  They can only really be one of two things, psychopaths or primitive monkeys seeking social hierarchy, power structure relevance due to the way they spend their time.  The alternative argument would be they want to 'shape' the world in their image somehow, but I doubt many of these tech billionaires have any real coherent plan that isn't just some offshoot of psychopathy or bonobo egoism and you're back to square one.

Pantera Capital


https://twitter.com/PanteraCapital/status/1154074046692286475



Good morning WO,s

10000 again.

BTCullish

truer words...

And he argues for...socialism...plus mandatory biometric ID chain anchor in a cashless society slavery system so people can't double dip on the welfare socialism.  Totally legit....

I knew it, the GOOSE, is SATOSHI


Kleiman v. Wright Case Update: Man From Belgium Tells Judge He Is Satoshi


https://cointelegraph.com/news/kleiman-v-wright-case-update-man-from-belgium-tells-judge-he-is-satoshi

Mic...

I suppose that i have some difficulties taking serious a question that is easily answered by reading the OP of this thread.

Seems like basic requirements to genuinely participate in any thread in terms of asking questions about the meaning of the thread, blah blah blah.. would you not at least read OP and wouldn't you at least present such question by stating what homework that you had already done?

Therefore comes off as a trolling approach...

But, as I am a glutton for punishment of the trolls, I will answer by just saying that walls have to do with order books, so originally we looked at GOX order books, and mostly the walls have been Bitstamp order books, even though some of the other exchanges might be presented or discussed from time to time.  Recently, bitstamp discontinued one of its order book webpages that would give quite a visual of the buy/sell order book walls.  You can do a historical browsing through this thread to see pictures of the website.

Edit:  see this response by bkbirge, also  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51941627




I could give two shits if you invest or not, but I do believe that a person can much more actively engage by starting to buy small amounts of BTC while studying the phenomenon... but whatever do what you like.

Your questioning me about my motives causes me to think that you might be thinking that I am trying to sell or pump something, and I could give two shits if you invest.  Bitcoin is likely to go up in value in the coming years whether you invest or not and even if a whole hell of a lot of scared peeps are sitting on the sideline.  Bitcoin does not need mass adoption in order for it to prosper, and in fact mass adoption is going to come to bitcoin, even if there is no marketing of it.



Bitcoin is a hedge and likely a non correlated asset.  Of course, you can invest for a variety of reason, but sound money and a hedge is one of the best of reasons.


I started investing in late 2013, and largely I was considering bitcoin to be a hedge against my other investments.  So initially, I created a plan to dollar cost average accumulate bitcoin for 6 months while studying it, and then I extended another 6 months, and by the end of 2014, I had pretty much reached my hedging target of having about 10% of my quasi-liquid assets in BTC.  My reasons have not really changed since late 2014, even though I have begun to engage in maintenance and also figuring out ways to profit from nearly inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility... but largely I continue in a kind of maintenance mode since late 2014 - even though I am a whole hell of a lot less nervous about my BTC investment these days as compared with late 2014 because my investment is way into profits, which causes me to be much more relaxed about the whole situation.


There are a lot of no coiners who do not know shit about bitcoin, but they try to act like they understand it.  I have learned, in my many years of life, that I am able to learn about a thing a whole lot better when I have experience with it.  

Bitcoin is one of the easiest things in the world to invest in.  We did not have those kinds of opportunities when I was younger and beginning my investments (say more than 30 years ago), so I used to invest in bonds and later index funds, and bitcoin is way the fuck easier to invest into, but the choice is yours on that, and you can study it and wait and whatever.. also if you want to set up accounts, sometimes it can take a while to get verified, so maybe some of the options to get in are not necessarily as easy as they were when I started in late 2013 and acquired more ways to get BTC in 2014 and some of those avenues are more KYC intensive, these days.



O.k.... don't do it then.  I am not saying that you need to know anything about the technology, except maybe to understand that bitcoin is the only sound money.. but could take a while for you to come to that realization anyhow.



I am not technologically sophisticated, so I don't program or anything like that.  I believe that I have acquired decent understandings about bitcoin but I doubt that my understanding really boils down to technical knowledge or even an ability to sort through technical claims - even though from time to time I am presented with a variety of technical claims and I do sometimes have to make decisions about what kinds of claims seem more credible or not.. especially claims from various bitcoin wannabe coins who are imitating bitcoin and trying to suggest that something is wrong with bitcoin.  Hey, there are network effects too that causes a protocol like bitcoin to stay on top, and those network effects are not likely to leave bitcoin unless there are some defects in bitcoin, so frequently you will see bitcoin naysayers, altcoin pumpers suggesting that bitcoin is broken in some kind of way that their project is going to fix, and frequently those are exaggerated claims that are not based on either facts or logic, so I can usually recognize the bullshit in the claims of other coins trying to act like they are bitcoin 2.0 based on exaggerated assertions.



Maybe he wants to use bcash, or bcash sv, or ethereum, or dash or ripple?   Guys who ask these kinds of "technology" questions are frequently so much smarter than the rest of us regular bitcoiners that they are lured into bullshit scam coins for purportedly legitimate "technology" reasons.  But, you can only do so much in order to let the newbies experiment with all other coins until they end up losing their money and having to chase after the bitcoin train a few years later.

Might get to see a repeat of that.  The average man on the street is completely tapped out.  The millenial generation supposedly has 40% less wealth than the previous generation did at the same age.  I wouldn't be surprised if that figure was low-balled and they have even less.  In other words, there is nobody that exists to take the other side of the trade and be the greater fool to buy imaginary, valueless, digital scamcoins.
JayJuanGee's only hope is literally for Jamie Dimon himself to be the greater fool and come in and buy digital shitcoins from him.  What could go wrong?

@JJG - I remember well in 2014 you were sitting on incredible losses, I think you were even worse in the red than me
I was at a 50% loss of total investment in 2014 through to early 2015. It’s really cool to be on the same journey for a similar amount of time to a lot of people now. I’ll have to recalculate my total investment to unrealised profit again later & let you know how many x I am in profit now because it’s changed a bit now. I’ve invested another $20,000 into BTC since the crash from $19,xxx.

Probably part of your mistake that you seem to acknowledge was that you had too much invested into BTC, and I suppose if you cashed out profitable, you were still better off for the gamble of too much into BTC that you had taken...

If you cashed out your BTC at a loss, then that's another story.

I consider that I had made a pretty decent -sized mistake in November 2018, too. 

In early 2018, I had begun the planning of a construction project that had some uncertainties regarding how long it was going to take and when exactly the bills would come due and if they would trickle in over an extended period of time or all come in at once.

So, by late October early November, many of the bills were coming in and they were looking like they would be due between November and January - depending on various stages that the work was getting done.   I think that there were some cost overruns, too, so fuck, by the time I figured out my cashflow in light of the overruns, I saw that the only reasonable thing was going to cash out about 3.5% of additional bitcoin as a kind of cashflow cushion.. and a kind of insurance to have the cash on hand through at least January.

So, yeah, I was kind of kicking myself for having to sell 3.5% of my bitcoin, and I ended up making such sale around $4k on average. Over subsequent months and until about April 1 (before the BTC price boom), I was able to repurchase about 25% of those sold coins for at or below the sale price, but I still had kind of kicking myself for taking a gamble that did not really pay off and forced me to sell a portion of my stash at a time that was somewhat inconvenient for me, also based on the dip in BTC price, too.


Probably, you would not feel as anxious about having some of those longer term plans in bitcoin, if you are much more in profits.  I am not sure.  Each of us is different.  I went from 65% in the red in early 2015, to nearly 28x in profits in late 2017 and even with the dip down to $3,122 in late 2018, I was still well over 4x in profits and at current prices my holdings are in the ballpark of 14x profits.  So it is a bit more difficult to be stressful about whether I am putting anything long term at risk. 

Currently, I have a tentative plan that involves employing a BTC liquidation plan that I believe to be a kind of passive way to have an income from BTC that involves in the coming years, to start to cash out 1% of my BTC stash every quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k.  If the price is below $5k, then I will wait to cash out and likely buy instead of sell any BTC. 

Of course, my cashing out plan has not started yet, it is tentatively not even going to start for a few years, but still, I feel a certain level of confidence about the plan in regards to feeling that the condition of not cashing out any BTC because BTC prices are below $5k are not very likely to be met... so in that regard, once I start cashing out, I pretty much have a passive income flowing for life... so really hard to feel nervous or stressed about being in that kind of a situation, no?