Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9735.

Amateur_

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Quote from: HairyMaclairy on July 24, 2019, 09:58:18 PM

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue. Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.

You do realise that argumentation and thoughtful discussion is a valid way of learning, right?
A reasonably effective way at arriving at the truth, no?

You're also aware, obviously, that indoctrination is the practice of "listen and believe", right?

HairyMaclairy

legendary

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue. Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.

jojo69

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diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 09:30:29 PM

Bitcoin is where WHAT'S at?

the future of money

Amateur_

jr. member

Activity: 37

Merit: 1

Quote from: ?? on ??

This really isn't the place for these post but Bitcoin sv and Bitcoin cash aren't Bitcoin, just forks and they could never be "Bitcoin".

I'm not suggesting that other projects or hard-forks "are bitcoin", nor am I suggesting that they have a direct effect on the fundamentals of the bitcoin protocol, I'm simply asking why the arbitrary variables set in the bitcoin protocol are "better" than the variables set in the protocols of other projects.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Now about litecoin and other altcoins, you'll find plenty screaming how coina or coinb is better and the future but the truth is these (all other projects) are all faulted in one way or another.

That's a huge claim and you've provided no evidence that this is in fact true.

I've heard the "first mover advantage" mentioned, along with terms like "the network effect", but I'm yet to hear a convincing argument for the superiority of the bitcoin protocol, when compared with others in the space.

My concern can easily be written off if the argument for the superiority of bitcoin is its current price action, but this highlights again the underlying majority view that bitcoin is simply a tool for gambling, doesn't it?

Quote from: ?? on ??

Litecoin is the "silver to bitcoins gold" but most have instamine, ico's, masternode scams, ease of 51% attacks, Led by a leader and more.

It's true that we can't write off all non-bitcoin projects as scams; it's also true that a large number of other projects are in fact scams.

So, what makes bitcoin better than those other projects which are not scams, and which are effectively clones of bitcoin with minor differences?

Quote from: ?? on ??

Bitcoin is where it's at due to a few factors, strong history, strong DISTRIBUTED hashrate, quality or devs, launch history, use and development.

Bitcoin is where WHAT'S at?
The totally massive and radical financial gains potential?

Biodom

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One ... may ask more questions than seven wise men can answer.

HairyMaclairy

legendary

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 08:57:33 PM

Quote from: jojo69 on July 24, 2019, 08:54:33 PM

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.

I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.

You, me, and everyone else in the world most likely.

Yup. Market sell in a single order. Hopefully do some damage in the process.

bkbirge

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Quote from: jojo69 on July 24, 2019, 08:54:33 PM

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.

I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.

You, me, and everyone else in the world most likely.

bkbirge

sr. member

Activity: 1197

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Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 08:27:59 PM

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 06:51:37 PM

As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?

No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen.

Isn't "consensus among the majority of miners" effectively identical to "the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors"?

They would have to work in cooperation which is not what I assumed you meant from your statement. And then they'd have to convince everyone else to use it, otherwise they'd just be mining their own fork to the sound of tumbleweeds from the rest of the world.
https://www.blockchain.com/en/pools

Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 08:27:59 PM

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be.

Why would it be "incredibly improbable"?
Bitcoin Cash exists, doesn't it? Bitcoin Satoshi's Vision exists, doesn't it? Although these projects have not yet changed the total supply or distribution, they have changed other variables in the protocol.

What about litecoin? The Scrypt mining algorithm utilised in litecoin is as secure as the SHA256 mining algorithm utilised buy bitcoin, albeit slightly different in design. Confirmation times are faster with litecoin, and there is a higher total supply.

What makes bitcoin better than litecoin?
Is vanilla objectively better than chocolate?

Chocolate is ALWAYS better. Those coins you mention are not bitcoin. That's the point. They are something else. None of them can change the total supply of bitcoin. Maybe one of them eventually beats bitcoin in adoption but so far that looks very unlikely, I wouldn't hold my breath for that. To survive, all those coins listed will have to overcome the first mover advantage of bitcoin and/or carve out their own niche. Those are tall orders. And that is still magnitudes more probable than bitcoin changing its supply limit. For that to happen, it's not just a consensus to change the code, it's also convincing all the people that are using bitcoin now to adopt it to the point it kills off 'old' bitcoin.

jojo69

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diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.

I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.

HairyMaclairy

legendary

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

It doesn’t matter what miners think or choose. They can always fork away and good luck to them.

Economic holders have enormous financial incentives to keep the 21 million cap. They will reject any hard fork by miners to lift the cap. That miner will just be making a shit coin like Bcash, but worse because the cap is broken

Amateur_

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Activity: 37

Merit: 1

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 06:51:37 PM

As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?

No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen.

Isn't "consensus among the majority of miners" effectively identical to "the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors"?

Quote from: bkbirge on July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be.

Why would it be "incredibly improbable"?
Bitcoin Cash exists, doesn't it? Bitcoin Satoshi's Vision exists, doesn't it? Although these projects have not yet changed the total supply or distribution, they have changed other variables in the protocol.

What about litecoin? The Scrypt mining algorithm utilised in litecoin is as secure as the SHA256 mining algorithm utilised buy bitcoin, albeit slightly different in design. Confirmation times are faster with litecoin, and there is a higher total supply.

What makes bitcoin better than litecoin?
Is vanilla objectively better than chocolate?

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

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This was not discussed here, but yesterday btc miners (new gen, another batch) went on sale for ridiculously high prices.
Sold out very quickly, regardless.
The only way these purchases make any sense is the expectation of price doubling to quadrupling within 12 mo when taking into account both the difficulty and the price rise.

_javi_

hero member

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Still a manic miner

Those are the candles that change my mood. Grin

go BTC gooo!!

lightfoot

legendary

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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)

Well back to normal.

HairyMaclairy

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Quote from: bitserve on July 24, 2019, 07:54:48 PM

Who said higher low?

You did.

bitserve

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Self made HODLER ✓

Who said higher low?

HairyMaclairy

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Oh hi there

bitserve

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Self made HODLER ✓

woah

HairyMaclairy

legendary

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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Quote from: jbreher on July 24, 2019, 06:19:35 PM

Quote from: fillippone on July 24, 2019, 02:49:42 PM

Quote from: Biodom on July 24, 2019, 02:24:35 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/

Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.

jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.

To be clear, I am not saying that the stock:flow model is definitive. I am saying that the eventual price is very high, due to the endemic properties of crypto as money. And that getting from a price of Zero to a price of FuckYou is bound to take significant time, and be very chaotic along the way.

The stock:flow model is simply an empirical model that seems to roughly explain the observed underlying reality. IMNSHO.

I expect anyone that trades with any expectation of fidelity to the S:F model will likely do well on average, but likely be wiped out at some point along the way where that fidelity breaks down completely.

We humans like things in neat little predictable buckets. But while markets are derived from human behavior, price predictions are not amenable to mere mathematical analysis.

This is fair. Except fidelity does hold, albeit on an extremely macro level.

Year on year we have only once made a lower low in a following year, and then only by a whisker in the depths of cryptowinter.

bitserve

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Self made HODLER ✓

Quote from: Amateur_ on July 24, 2019, 06:51:37 PM

As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?

"Changing" it would result in an immediate hard fork and considering the economic majority would not support it it would probably be rendered worthless (the hardforked chain I mean). It would be a chaotic event that would have some significant impact on price overall though. The one entity losing the most would be the one causing the hard fork and drop in price.

It is basically the same as if the richest people in the world decided to airdrop all their billions to the rest of the population. FIAT value would drop relative to other assets, but they would be the more directly impacted.

In other words, the most powerful network contributors have a very high economic incentive to just play by the consensus rules.

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