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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9843. (Read 26608476 times)

STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
Tulips will still grow every year for half a century, went to tulips is not such a great insult imo.    Tulips cant securely contain transactions globally though so likely not reflecting the same dynamics, different market commodities tbh :p

A backup is a good idea but I'd also mention alot of pensions are liable to payout a figure related to whatever the future dollar value might be, that could possibly really suck if it were just bound to nominal payouts.   The government will never measure inflation correctly as it would too often put GDP into the negative.   Also pensions have a kind of soft default where they reference improving life spans, so now your retirement age gets bumped up.   Not every person has perfect health near an average and so some will never get their pension.   401k is a good idea to keep your hands out of the honey pot but also its full of rules that might easily put a person at a disadvantage.  
   The full measure of extremism on this subject would be to foresee that all 401k (or similar pension schemes around the world) given they had tax breaks, are in future forced to buy exclusively government debt.   The largest holders of QE programs ongoing debt are government pension schemes, afaik they are the counter and a large one with 50% GDP related to fiscal expenditure.   Hence government can never go broke while it rules the people.   In a democracy this probably should not be happening by force but its a slippery slope.    Japan might be closest to this playing out but also their demographics are broke.

Quote
buy as many different tokens as possible.
Good idea to look before you leap and that doesnt sound like that.    I think POS is a good alternative to POW but not everyone is especially positive on it, if the market finds no great cost or fault in efficiency for POW and BTC then I guess POS wont take off but if it does thats the kind of diversification in crypto I'd expect works rather then this forking stuff.

Proper diversification is a very valid subject, staying within crypto would not really qualify imo.   I'm thinking of entirely separate asset types.   Someone who setups their own ability to purify water off grid has a useful form of diversification I think.   Gold I think will always be relevant, doesnt have to be any large quantity but certainly enough to exchange for food is a reasonable argument for retaining independent value that will last a decade.   Catching the latest fad in whatever price is rising right now is not really diversification.    Silver can help purify water somewhat, I dont view it as too expensive now and it has its uses to be fair     A goat can be diversification Grin

Its a bad idea to be in a market where everyone wants to sell, thats the main reason to use this idea.   Alot of current liquidity is kinda artificial from politics and QE support, it could all be different.   I believe the tides rule us and politics loses its grip to control prices eventually, not trying to be gloomy but I think thats a natural process repeating for longer then any of us have been around
hero member
Activity: 1204
Merit: 755
Homo Sapiens Bitcoinerthalensis
Please tell me that you have already diversified some of that capital - at the very least - into prostitutes & drugs.
Solid investment, much like Jimbo's teeth. Grin
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

There is some validity to diversification, but the concept is taken to an extreme with shitcoins, and there seems to be hardly any justification to diversify into shitcoins.

Another thing, the concept of diversification is to attempt to diversify into assets that are not likely to be correlated and represent some fundamental differences.  Frequently altcoins are merely following bitcoin, so they are not really a different asset class.

Finally, there is a pretty god damned low probability that any altcoin would be able to take over the slack if bitcoin were to fail, and so a justification to diversify into a world of altcoins based on a kind of bitcoin failure theory has a very faulty premise.

I am not opposed to people coming to their own conclusions regarding what kind of diversification would be good for them based on their personal situation, and I understand the temptation to completely diversify out of traditional investments; however, if an employer offers any kind of 401k, it would likely be a good idea to invest into such 401k at least up to the matching funds (if matching exists) and perhaps up to the tax deferrable limit, but that might be a question of how much money would be left to invest into bitcoin, because most young people should consider having some investment into bitcoin, even if such bitcoin investment only ends up being 1% to 10% or so of their total investments.

I don't usually cite myself, but I will make an exception because I wanted to make some further points about problems of diversification with regards to crypto, and of course, I am not much of an advocate of keeping much if anything in any other cryptos besides bitcoin, but I can see why there could reasonably be some interest from younger folks, especially, in putting up to 30% into other cryptos, which o.k. fine, we can come to reasonably different conclusions about the prudence of that.

Another problem that I wanted to point out, though, is that the more that a young person might end up diversifying, then the smaller and smaller becomes the stake in each particular investment asset, and one of the dominant problems with younger peeps is that there does not tend to be a whole hell of a lot of capital to play with, and the more that such young person diversifies, the less and less is invested into each of the assets.  Such lack of capital could be the case with older people too, but with younger people lack of capital would logically be more common as an issue and having had little time to accumulate wealth and value retaining assets.

In other words, it takes a long fucking time to: 1) reasonably live within your means, 2) accumulate investment capital and 3) refrain from temptations to buy depreciating assets (such as too many non-utility consumption items)

In my own situation, I had not bought a new car until I was in my 40s, and yeah, I may have waited a bit too long, because I had accumulated a decent amount of wealth by the time I was in my mid-30s, but I was still on a relatively frugal behavior pattern, and I did not feel comfortable cashing in on what seemed to have been a decent accumulation of profits and a decent projected income stream.  I continued to want my money to work for me, and I thought that buying a new car would throw away too much potential working capital on a quickly and clearly depreciating asset.  So, anyhow, part of my point is that it can take a decent amount of time to build up enough wealth to be able to diversify a lot of it, and if you are working with a smaller base of money, then you are spread thin and your profits will not seem like a lot of money.  You also might be tempted to borrow, which sometimes can work out well if used prudently in order to attempt to get capital that you do not have to work for you.. and to be able to rotate it or to pay it back before penalties might kick in.

Even when I got into bitcoin, I had a decent amount of capital that I had available to me and that I could put into bitcoin, but I did not feel comfortable spreading out the money that I had available very much, and even after my bitcoin value grew 28x and shrunk back down to 8x and is currently at about 15x, there remains a kind of lack of confidence within my own thinking about spreading that value that I have accumulated out into alt coins, which I suppose is stemming from my earlier conclusions that bitcoin was the best investment and not to dilute my funds into crap, and even if I currently feel that I have enough funds that I could diversify, so dilution is not really the issue anymore, I still have residue feelings that I don't want to diversify into shit, just for the sake of diversification...

but another part of my personal situation/problem remains that I have a decent investment in traditional investments such as a 401k that even though my 401k is valued at less than 25% of my overall investment portfolio, such 401k was serving as my kind of back-up plan if BTC totally went to tulips (as searing might say).  I had always figured that my 401k was enough to sustain everything as a backup - even though I had been tempted in late 2014 to withdraw about 50% from that 401k and to transfer it into BTC (which I did not do).. and even though I would have made a killing, I am kind of glad that I just left that 401k alone, too (maybe for the sake of maintaining some spreading out of risk, aka diversification into nonbitcoin assets?).
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.


Into ^, gonna catch up tomorrow

Goodnight my fine WO-bro's
full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 187
Deutsche bank employees pack their bags leaving. Another failed collapsing bank to fire another 18,000 employees but what is most telling isn’t the banks crumbling finances but the Bitcoins tote carried by the man in a blue suit. Long bitcoin! Short the banksters!!
https://twitter.com/amtvmedia/status/1148616111346216966
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748

Where else but the WO for proper analysis?

tea leaves? reading goats entrails?.... or how about that magic eight ball thingy?

Anything for an edge, mate.  Mind you, Binance has probably already read this by now and is quietly cornering the fresh goat market.
full member
Activity: 417
Merit: 220
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.
Two imho.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1520
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 2282
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

You won’t get many people, if any, saying that here
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame....

Lets find out. New poll time!

Old poll results:





Weren’t an idea of next minimum positioning (price/time) getting traction?
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 3514
born once atheist

Where else but the WO for proper analysis?

tea leaves? reading goats entrails?.... or how about that magic eight ball thingy?
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
For me I do think we might have two runs - since we seem to be ahead of the fractal... but the real one will still be a year after the halvening, so 2021.  And as is traditional, probably December.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno

Maybe there could be a kind of time period in there that would have to come after the ATH in order for that ATH to be considered the top of such a cycle?

So, for example:

"When do you believe BTC will reach its highest point in its next ATH top (in which at least a one year period of lower prices follows before BTC next reaches another ATH)?"

Of course, you could change that following price period, but 1 year should work in a vast majority of cases in order to give a sufficient period time for a reset, so in 2013, there were two tops and a less than a year intervention (something like 9 months between 2013 tops that were in early April and late November), so in 2013 the second top would count as the top for that period because there was less than 1 year intervention between reaching ATHs, but after the December 2017 peak, we have had more than 18 months of intervening period without experiencing another ATH.... meaning that we are in reset mode... reset for another ATH, but questioning details as to when (or if) that next ATH will come or how it will play out, exactly? 

Of course, no poll is going to be perfect because we have to make a best guestimate kind of choice, based on the wording.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Indeed.
In addition our analysis are for the sake of s better enlightenment of world minds, not driven out of filthy lucre.

legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno

Do we only know afterwards, when it crashes by 85%? Wink
legendary
Activity: 2660
Merit: 2868
Shitcoin Minimalist
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno
legendary
Activity: 2842
Merit: 1511
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.
hero member
Activity: 1204
Merit: 755
Homo Sapiens Bitcoinerthalensis
New poll time!

Suggestion:

"What happened in r0achie's childhood?"

a) His mother threw him out.
b) Got gang banged from every hole in da hood.
c) Was mislead by a Jew.
d) Was mislead by a woman.
e) A Nazi lover gave him his education.
f) All of the above.
g) None of the above, he is just a dick.

Edit: Too late, maybe next time. Grin
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