Topic: WALL Observer : BTC/USD price tracking and discussion (Phoenix Revision). - page 3. (Read 9952 times)

So we killed the original thread, kind of sad leaving one of the old monster threads around is classic in a sense.
The impressions alone are basically enough to justify its usage casual and old alike.
It really should just be left around but vote in the poll
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-to-do-with-the-wall-observer-thread-1993570
Oh well leaving a placeholder in the new version for now and watching the coin range stabilize around 2400-2500 for now.

How possible is to do a change of POW, something ASIC resistant, so people can start mining again, the net decentralizes and we get rid of the Jihan mafia?

I don´t understand how its not been discused yet.

Aren't you moving the goal posts a little bit?

Initially, you were comparing to summer 2014, and now you are saying that we are shrinking from a few select days earlier in the month.. of course there is going to be variance, but overall we have a lot of ongoing trading pressure - and yeah of course the price could continue to trickle down.. and there could be a fairly long trickling correction all the way back down to $1200.  We were only at $1200 a few months ago.. but even to return to those price levels, it seems pretty likely that we are going to continue to have a decent battle that does not really seem to rise to the level of "apathy" as you are asserting.




Sure, you are saying something similar to me, here.  We have to look at the whole thing in context and to look over several days and several weeks, which seems to be partly what you are doing, too.



That's nonsense.  You like to make these wild claims of manipulation and act as if there is not a very large market.

Yeah right.

Sure, when we look at exchanges, we are going to have a certain level of professionalism that is attempting to push prices in one direction or another, but they are also somewhat restricted, too in terms of how many coins that they can get and how many they are willing to trade or lose and price pressures that come through other non-exchange sources too.



Well, yeah.  It is far from over yet.  We still seem to be in a kind of $2350 to $2700 trading range, and we gotta break downwards several times before it really becomes some kind of problem that even comes close to concluding that there is some kind of end to the ongoing bull run..

And, I will also concede that we could be in the early stages of moving from bull run to bear market or even flat, but we got a long way to go in terms of time and also in terms of price movement to reasonably make such conclusions.. for example below $1200, and even then, may not be a bear market, merely a meaningful correction.

I imagine it won't be long before we get another one of those buyable dips the kids are always talking about at parties. With those fidget spinners and whatnot.

So I guess going from >$2M in 24 hr volume on June 6th, 10th and 12th when prices were higher to <$1M now while prices are lower is not apathy to you? The total market cap has dropped from a peak of $48B to now $39B.

Also 24hr trading volume alone doesn't tell the whole story. It's a big difference in volume that is mostly buying (bringing price higher) vs. volume that is mostly selling off (bringing price lower). Like the massive selloff dumps on the 14th/15th.

Whales selling into their own walls is not real investor buying imo.

The good news that we haven't made a lower low yet since this bull run started. Until that happens, we won't really be able to grasp what the immediate future holds.

I'm hopeful that the bull run will keep going from here.

That's because Jihan and Co. have reached their intended goal already and there's no need to waste more money spamming the mempool. Sad but that's how it works now, I hope we can break the iron fist of the mining companies one day but it's unlikely given the way things have been going recently..

Boost for monday : https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/japan-ends-8-consumption-tax-on-bitcoin-today-1996715

The good news is the MEMpool : almost empty (1,5 blocks of delayed transactions = ~3500 transactions).








The bad news : Bear trap ahead (China Exchange flat line).



https://coinmarketcap.com/ is already RED ...

I have a real difficult time appreciating how both of you seem to be of the conclusion that here is either apathy or some kind of low BTC trade volume.  I wonder from where either of you are getting such information in order to arrive at such conclusions.

Sure, we have a little bit of trickling down of prices, but this trickling down is not coming without a fight.  The ongoing trade volume is quite stupendous, especially if we consider it in terms of the weekly and also in terms of the USD value in comparison to earlier times, including 2014 or 2015... my gosh, we seem to have way more trade volume.. at least 5x.

yeah, we might have a periodic phases of 12 or 24 hour period of lesser trade volume, but looking at the weekly, the trade volume adds up... and I don't think that you can really come to reasonable conclusions if you analyze trade volume periods of time that are less than a week, even though you can look at multiple candles that are much shorter, going down to 2 hour candles, as long you are looking at them over a longer period.. such as a week.

We can have the old one back if anyone trusted (like you) would put themself forward as a mod 

Theymos is asking for nominees.  So far seems there's been only one expression of interest. 

Good morning Bitcoinland. Same old, same old.

Still bouncing along sideways, right where we were 5 days ago... currently $2470USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Coiling for a big move, or just the summer (northern hemisphere) doldrums?
_____

It seems that new wall observer threads are popping up like mushrooms. Until another one gives me a compelling reason to move, I'll stick with this one, the first and most reasonably structured.

I'll definitely be sitting on my coins till August 1, even if there are rocky seas ahead. The outcome may not be what we expect but at the very least I see us breaking $3000 after that. What happens before is not going to have a huge impact unless some exchange gets hacked again or a major bug.

OK, fair enough.  That's a pretty likely outcome actually.  Litecoin, for example, settled for a while after SegWit activation before it got caught in the hype of the crypto bull market.  Bitcoin could do the same - people buy in when they expect SegWit to happen or when it's locked in, then they don't know what to do after that until other cryptos lead the way (probably bearish).

I'm not worried anyway.  I bought most of my coins way earlier than this, so I'm pretty safe with my stop loss set down low.

Or the other scenario: Segwit activated = a brief bull trap rally, followed by a crash ("buy the rumor sell the news") or simply a continuation of a downtrend already in progress.

Sorry to sound bearish, but if you are going to be a completionist you have to at least consider this as a possible outcome as well. Even bulls should be prepared for any scenario.

I think it's just people waiting for a future event.

SegWit not activated in July-August safely = 2014-ish behaviour, possibly moving into a bear market.

SegWit activated in July-August safely = moon.

Right now no one knows what's going on, so nothing is happening.

Ooooh, good catch (1st August-BIP148 identical pattern).



Note : SegWit from 33% to 40% in 9 days. 

Some traders have probably set low bids, and are waiting for the price to crash. Others have probably already bought and are waiting for a rally. Nothing's likely to happen until one group or the other blinks.

Theymos is asking for a list of who might want to take over the old WO thread:


Just spreading the word on all the new threads.

Watching the price action and low volume and velocity lately is really weird. It's like someone just set the trading bots on 'auto pilot' and walked away from the keyboard for a few weeks.

Such apathy.

Of course I've seen this behavior before. Remember it well. It was the summer of 2014...

Hoping is not realistic.

there is way too much ongoing trade volume in order to hope for prices to stay in such a small range for such an extended period of time, like you were suggesting.. and seemingly continuing to do so.

Maybe our current trading range is somewhere in the $2,350 to $2,700 price territory-ish?  So, it is a bit too early to get excited while the price is moving around in that range.

Yeah, we are migrating towards the lower end of the range, but it seems quite a bit too early to start panicking, yet.