as I predicted here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-bubble-has-popped-slow-decline-to-3-on-the-way-89759
The bubble is over, expect another slouch to $3 and also expect the reward halving in dec to have no effect on the price.
Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 1176. (Read 1811605 times)
MtGox is back!
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
On, we're on track all right.
yup!
MtGox is back!
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
On, we're on track all right.
MtGox is back!
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track
of course it's the weekend, so things will quiet down most likely...
give it a day or two
Maybe can break that 7.00 $ Pinata filled with tastylicious Bitcoin and get the party started.
But unless we do, Im short term bearish.
Maybe can break that 7.00 $ Pinata filled with tastylicious Bitcoin and get the party started.
But unless we do, Im short term bearish.
I agree with purchasing in the 6.0x range at the moment. I think it will take some patience, but I think it unlikely those bids will be left behind.
I could be totally wrong of course =)
-bgc
I could be totally wrong of course =)
-bgc
I think we have approached a sensitive point. The rally was quiet optimistic and all the buying pressure that has built up over the past month was set in motion, but since more and more ask walls pop up, once others are torn down, it seems we wont reach 7.00$ any time soon. Buyers get impatient and fear people take there profits now and buying pressure slows down to a point were it reverses.
There is some anxiety in the air also, the recent dump from 6.67$ to 6.55$ triggered some panic selling there and I think we wont return to 6.70$ now, but head back to the low 6.somethings. My buy orders are put in the range of 6.00$ -6.10$ right now.
There is some anxiety in the air also, the recent dump from 6.67$ to 6.55$ triggered some panic selling there and I think we wont return to 6.70$ now, but head back to the low 6.somethings. My buy orders are put in the range of 6.00$ -6.10$ right now.
I'm not surprised anymore by how quickly the picture changes. I'm sure lots of people are getting really anxious right now. I don't think we're far from seeing an enormous bite taken out of the bids. $6.80 is the new $7.20 is the new $32.00. Maybe back into high $4s over the next 3-4 months and then $5.something becomes the new $6.80?
The trend is up.
Up 80 cents from $5.8 to $6.6, retraced 60 cents to ~$6.03. Then up ~80 cents from ~$6.03 to $6.8. Could retrace to $6.2?
Sellers are not anxious yet, you can see this in the lack of reaction to the ask walls (did not spark a sell-off, instead price hugged the ask wall at $6.7). Contrast that to how the market reacts when a bid wall goes up (panic buying, because trend is up). We've been here before, but that was coming off $2! This time we're coming off $5. It wasn't that long ago.. this time sellers won't get anxious until after $7.2 (or we stall in the $6's for weeks).
I'm not surprised anymore by how quickly the picture changes. I'm sure lots of people are getting really anxious right now. I don't think we're far from seeing an enormous bite taken out of the bids. $6.80 is the new $7.20 is the new $32.00. Maybe back into high $4s over the next 3-4 months and then $5.something becomes the new $6.80?
but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ 
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.
well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices
I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years
Wrong, if more than 80% of coins are used, the economy would grow significantly. The more people are willing to trade something (doesn't have to be fiat, could be a Fiat car) for BTC, the higher the value of each BTC and the more the economy grows. It may get to the point where we can't assign a dollar figure to the market cap, but we would all agree that one BTC buys a Fiat...
The pitfalls of thinking of an economy only in terms of currency :-)
all i'm saying is these three things need to happen b4 BTC can be considered truly stable
look at gold its very similar to bitcoin But people aren't about to start buying 1Gram of weed with 100th of an ounce of gold.... this would be crazy. gold is purely speculative and not useful, this is why gold prices are very unstable. ( about to crash to 500 any year now
)But Bitcoin!
Its good for for speculation like gold cuz theirs a limited amount. And it actually makes things easier... Send me some bitcoins, and ill send you one of my special cookies! 1p57SNzsMkXQXkSgoRegrm4k4mr19TrrL Bang its that easy.
bottom line is if bitcoin was used MORE as a medium of exchange and not speculation, its value would be very stable.
Nobody who really cares about BTC wants to see massive instability. However, it's simply a fact that Bitcoin needs a larger market cap. It has received so much attention that there just has to be bigger players out there who want to participate but can't because the market cap just isn't there yet.
So even though I'm wary of bubbles and I wouldn't like that scenario, the truth is that Bitcoin deserves some growth right now and the market cap increase is definitely needed. I'm willing to risk it that we might overshoot and I hope that the market is smarter this time and doesn't overshoot too much.
We have reached the 2012 record for market cap during this rally already, which is excellent. Still far away from the 2011 high but there was a fairly big bubble so it's understandable. I'm quite confident that there is still room for growth this year, at least for the market cap. We need to remember that the money supply is still growing quite fast. Not for long though, block reward halving is getting closer and closer.
So even though I'm wary of bubbles and I wouldn't like that scenario, the truth is that Bitcoin deserves some growth right now and the market cap increase is definitely needed. I'm willing to risk it that we might overshoot and I hope that the market is smarter this time and doesn't overshoot too much.
We have reached the 2012 record for market cap during this rally already, which is excellent. Still far away from the 2011 high but there was a fairly big bubble so it's understandable. I'm quite confident that there is still room for growth this year, at least for the market cap. We need to remember that the money supply is still growing quite fast. Not for long though, block reward halving is getting closer and closer.
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.
well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices
I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years
Wrong, if more than 80% of coins are used, the economy would grow significantly. The more people are willing to trade something (doesn't have to be fiat, could be a Fiat car) for BTC, the higher the value of each BTC and the more the economy grows. It may get to the point where we can't assign a dollar figure to the market cap, but we would all agree that one BTC buys a Fiat...
The pitfalls of thinking of an economy only in terms of currency :-)
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.
well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices
I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.
Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.
I have not bought or sold any significant number of coins in several months, save for the person whose coins I mentioned I bought as a result of my ad. And I suppose in the process of selling Casascius Coins, I am effectively buying coins very slowly, since I am collecting my costs and markup and shipping charges in BTC, but paying for my supplies and shipping costs in USD.
I do not have any funds in any exchanges, no USD, no BTC.
I paid for my next two months of advertising in Bitcoin Magazine using a USD wire, so as to not smash the BTC piggybank. In fact, I've made my BTC very difficult to access (physically) so selling it is actually quite inconvenient for me. Forced savings strategy I guess. That should tell you how I feel about the long-term prospects of BTC.
If I have an ulterior motive, it's to cool off the chances of there being an unwarranted spike and then a crash. I would like the coins I am holding to see an increase in their fundamental market value over time, rather than to see a bubble, a brief spike, followed by a crash that scares off merchants. Stability in the bitcoin price favors growth in the community.
I agree rising is healthy, but I would prefer to see a slow rise, rather than a fast rise followed by wild oscillation. Now, if it suddenly rises to $30 and then oscillates between $10 and $20 and stays (and I'll eat my crow), I can't say I'll complain given my average BTC cost is under the current going rate. But what I don't want to see is a spike to $11 and then back down to $5.
I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.
I have not bought or sold any significant number of coins in several months, save for the person whose coins I mentioned I bought as a result of my ad. And I suppose in the process of selling Casascius Coins, I am effectively buying coins very slowly, since I am collecting my costs and markup and shipping charges in BTC, but paying for my supplies and shipping costs in USD.
I do not have any funds in any exchanges, no USD, no BTC.
I paid for my next two months of advertising in Bitcoin Magazine using a USD wire, so as to not smash the BTC piggybank. In fact, I've made my BTC very difficult to access (physically) so selling it is actually quite inconvenient for me. Forced savings strategy I guess.
If I have an ulterior motive, it's to cool off the chances of there being an unwarranted spike and then a crash. I would like the coins I am holding to see an increase in their fundamental market value over time, rather than to see a bubble, a brief spike, followed by a crash that scares off merchants. Stability in the bitcoin price favors growth in the community.
I agree rising is healthy, but I would prefer to see a slow rise, rather than a fast rise followed by wild oscillation. Now, if it suddenly rises to $30 and then oscillates between $10 and $20 and stays (and I'll eat my crow), I can't say I'll complain given my average BTC cost is under the current going rate. But what I don't want to see is a spike to $11 and then back down to $5.
This is free market, so i guess you don't need to worry.
People come in, rise, unsustainable, crash, survive? stable,
People come in, rise, unsustainable, crash, survive? stable ...
Eventually, everybody's in, so it can't be more stable.
I think there's one way you can help to stop this "unhealthy rising"
DUMP YOUR COINS. -- That'll help a lot.
But what if it's still rising ? NO, you can do nothing but waiting.
Maybe some hacking will help. Oh, did you hacked MtGox? That helped a lot.
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