Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 404. (Read 1811599 times)
always the same trick
Bitstamp bearish, expected price (midpoint between BTC300 bid/ask volume) in 1-2 hours: $81.
MtGox seems to be stuck at $79.
Despite the gloom setup, I expect a definitive all-time-high in 2 hours.
I am basing this prediction on my new 4-week trading data of six-hour intervals. Tuesday, 12-18 GMT has seen solid gains of 5.4% and 6.9% in the last two weeks. It is the 3rd best performing 6-hour slot of all the 28. The reason is probably the timing of incoming funds and traders online.
Since we started at $77.5, I can expect with confidence that we break through the "wall" at $80 and go to $80.5-$82 range before the sun sets here. There seems to be about equal probability (1/3) to end up in that range, or go above or stay below.
MtGox seems to be stuck at $79.
Despite the gloom setup, I expect a definitive all-time-high in 2 hours.
I am basing this prediction on my new 4-week trading data of six-hour intervals. Tuesday, 12-18 GMT has seen solid gains of 5.4% and 6.9% in the last two weeks. It is the 3rd best performing 6-hour slot of all the 28. The reason is probably the timing of incoming funds and traders online.
Since we started at $77.5, I can expect with confidence that we break through the "wall" at $80 and go to $80.5-$82 range before the sun sets here. There seems to be about equal probability (1/3) to end up in that range, or go above or stay below.
In my opinion, BitStamp has been more fun to watch than MtGox today.
800 before $80!
Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?
Because they think they are smarter than they really are? There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price. I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.
My guess is that these walls are erected by early adopters who want Bitcoin to succeed.
How many potential new investors dismiss Bitcoin because of all the articles warning that Bitcoin is a highly risky investment because of its extreme volatility? If we want the average citizen to become a long-term investor in Bitcoin, we need to show them a calm, steadily rising market, not a roller coaster ride.
These flash crashes are our worst enemy. How do we control them? Sell some coins to cool off the market when it starts to shoot up too quickly, and keep limit buy orders in place to eliminate the flash crashes.
Unfortunately, that means you miss some of the gains because you're always partly in fiat, but it seems a small price to pay to ensure the long-term success of the project.
Bitstamp bearish, expected price (midpoint between BTC300 bid/ask volume) in 1-2 hours: $81.
MtGox seems to be stuck at $79.
Despite the gloom setup, I expect a definitive all-time-high in 2 hours.
I am basing this prediction on my new 4-week trading data of six-hour intervals. Tuesday, 12-18 GMT has seen solid gains of 5.4% and 6.9% in the last two weeks. It is the 3rd best performing 6-hour slot of all the 28. The reason is probably the timing of incoming funds and traders online.
Since we started at $77.5, I can expect with confidence that we break through the "wall" at $80 and go to $80.5-$82 range before the sun sets here. There seems to be about equal probability (1/3) to end up in that range, or go above or stay below.
MtGox seems to be stuck at $79.
Despite the gloom setup, I expect a definitive all-time-high in 2 hours.
I am basing this prediction on my new 4-week trading data of six-hour intervals. Tuesday, 12-18 GMT has seen solid gains of 5.4% and 6.9% in the last two weeks. It is the 3rd best performing 6-hour slot of all the 28. The reason is probably the timing of incoming funds and traders online.
Since we started at $77.5, I can expect with confidence that we break through the "wall" at $80 and go to $80.5-$82 range before the sun sets here. There seems to be about equal probability (1/3) to end up in that range, or go above or stay below.
Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?
Because they think they are smarter than they really are? There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price. I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.
People can only buy when there are other people selling, that's the two sides of a market. You fly to the moon, you don't get teleported there.
I was thinking more along the lines of the people who just dump 100 btc in one go as opposed to putting up a sale order.
Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?
Because they think they are smarter than they really are? There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price. I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.
People can only buy when there are other people selling, that's the two sides of a market. You fly to the moon, you don't get teleported there.
Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?
Because they think they are smarter than they really are? There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price. I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.
In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.
Somebody is quickly acting on my advice (shame I cannot post a wall pic..)!
Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?
About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?
Correct
No, not the only issue. You transfer gets held up (in fiat) for weeks waiting paperwork and review. This market could double in that time.
Think about the labor, all the documents you need to keep all the time it takes to fill out the forms. It's a lot of trouble and should not be dismissed.
Well, I'm not at all sorry then that I'm not profiting from these arbitrage opportunities. I'm making enough money by simply holding anyway.
Will we see a rematch of the slugfest we say yesterday where bulls and bears are throwing jabs and uppercuts, but neither getting a leg up? So far, it looks like that may be possible.
The real truth lies in the fact that current bids have climbed over 9mil (close to 8mil if you don't count the huge by wall at $51) while asks are struggling to stay above 40k.
Translation: Rocket is fueled and this may be your last chance to buy under 80
The real truth lies in the fact that current bids have climbed over 9mil (close to 8mil if you don't count the huge by wall at $51) while asks are struggling to stay above 40k.
Translation: Rocket is fueled and this may be your last chance to buy under 80
In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.
Somebody is quickly acting on my advice (shame I cannot post a wall pic..)!
In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.
In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?
Correct
No, not the only issue. You transfer gets held up (in fiat) for weeks waiting paperwork and review. This market could double in that time.
Yes, but using the money for arbitrage opportunities is somewhat less risky. About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?
Think about the labor, all the documents you need to keep all the time it takes to fill out the forms. It's a lot of trouble and should not be dismissed.
Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.
How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?
For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.
Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.
When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.
you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).
Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).
In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.
Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.
Yes this you are exactly right. And remember fiat on an exchange has almost the same risk profile as BTC. Its not insured and an attacker could spend it to BTC and then get it off the exchange.
I did some arb and market making across a few exchanges through 2012. It was pretty good during the stability around 5-10. You certainly do keep fiat and BTC in all exchanges, but then you have to rebalance because like we are seeing with the european exchanges these past weeks, a particular exchange will lead or trail consistently over a several month period (exchanges can't be modeled like random walks). And everyone was hitting the transfer limits whenever the markets diverged, which actually was sort of nice b/c it let a lot of players into the game.
I did my last arb at 14.xx, and actually missed it -- lost point something % once exchange fees were added in. Now I'm just holding on for dear life!!! :-) (and buying the flash crashes) When you add in the massive reduction in risk (all BTC are in offline wallets) then you can really see why the markets are highly divergent right now.
About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?
Correct
Jump to: