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Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 405. (Read 1811599 times)

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.

you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).

Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).

In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.

Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.


Yes, but using the money for arbitrage opportunities is somewhat less risky. About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000


Browsing this thread on my phone.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.

No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them.

Yes, lol, you see my point. These people have all the above, except that they currently have no experience of bitcoin more than you (or even me).

In a sense, if you count minimum 1.5 years of actual bitcoin exposure as a qualifier (along with 24/7 free time and $1M+ worth), I estimate there are about 100 people in the world.

3 or more years of exposure, free time + assistants doing trading for you and $10M net worth, max 10 people.

Minimum 10 years experience on trading and crypto, an organisation of your own to do what ever you command and $250M+ net worth, perhaps only MP and the U.S. government qualify.

So which one is pumping up the value..  Grin

Well the number of years experience with Bitcoin doesn't really matter I think, any reasonably smart person can learn most there is to know about Bitcoin within a week and most talented traders are able to make money out of many different markets.

That's why it's only a matter of time before the large trading desks at Wall Street wake up and start pumping massive amounts of fiat in Bitcoin. I think the whole Bitcoin vs. banks discussion is a bit overblown, most guys working at the large banks are only concerned with making lots of money and if Bitcoin suits them, they will use it.

Actually, the first trading desk to go all-in will make an insane amount of money, so it's somewhat surprising me that it's taking them so long.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.

you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).

Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).

In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.

Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.

No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them.

Yes, lol, you see my point. These people have all the above, except that they currently have no experience of bitcoin more than you (or even me).

In a sense, if you count minimum 1.5 years of actual bitcoin exposure as a qualifier (along with 24/7 free time and $1M+ worth), I estimate there are about 100 people in the world.

3 or more years of exposure, free time + assistants doing trading for you and $10M net worth, max 10 people.

Minimum 10 years experience on trading and crypto, an organisation of your own to do what ever you command and $250M+ net worth, perhaps only MP and the U.S. government qualify.

So which one is pumping up the value..  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
So we've been hitting wall observer thread count parity...

soon, Bitcoin will overtake  Grin
Is there an upper limit on the counter? Tongue
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 564
"In Us We Trust"
So we've been hitting wall observer thread count parity...

soon, Bitcoin will overtake  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
I don't think we will see anything resembling stability until we are deep  3 maybe even 4 digits.
legendary
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.

No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
So if I deposit BTC from MTGox to Bitcoin 24 and withdraw there in Euro, transfering by wiretransfer the cash back to my Bank / MTGOX  i can practically make extra cash, especially when selling out my BTC?

Currently at Bitcoin24 EURO 64.33, thats $ 82.73, means about $ 4 profit / 1 BTC.

For my 500 BTC it makes a difference in profit of $ 2000 !!!   Is that real?

EDITED

So what happens when the price keeps rising and you've done a few trades like this and now all your money is in Euro on Bitcoin24 and you've ran out of BTC on MtGox ?

Then you need to start sending wires right ?

If you just wait a bit they will catch up in value anyway, unless there's some kind of reverse trend, correction or crash.

You shouldn't have to transfer fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox for the trade itself, you should do this with some extra fiat you'd otherwise wouldn't invest in Bitcoin. Selling at Bitcoin24 and buying at MtGox should be done within a few seconds, to minimize the risk the price moves within your trade. When the trade is done, you could send some or all of your excess fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox when you expect another situation where Bitcoin24 trades at a premium.

The risk is that if you're inexperienced, it's easy to make some stupid mistake which could cost you lots of money. For that reason I prefer a buy and hold strategy.

Same strategy for the same reason...

There are not so many people in the world, who can follow Bitcoin 24/7 and have the resources to understand what is going on. That is why it seems that the market is mispricing things. We are the market, and we don't have any more capacity to arbitrage, it is currently maxed out, since to do effective trading, you need:
- time
- skill
- money.

I personally bought $130k during the last 21 hours in Bitstamp, admittedly paying more than in Gox, but I did it anyway, cold-bloodedly sending my money to the less liquid exchange because I knew I would get it there sooner. I sent a smaller chunk to Mt.Gox at the same time, yet it is still not there yet. Gox is already higher than my average entry price (of the last 21 hours).

I anticipate we breach $100 tomorrow or Thursday with 40% probability, latest next Monday in 15% probability, later next week in 15% probability, and this spring in 15% probability. See, I think there is only about 15% chance that we will not break $100 (before the summer). Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future. I know of many, that is why I am maxing out.

We are in the process of making a killing. Just be careful with the "sell" button, it is red for a reason  Cool



Fast at 100$ and then sharp correction or big battle at 98-99$ and more stability after we hit 100$?
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 500
Crypto Somnium
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
So if I deposit BTC from MTGox to Bitcoin 24 and withdraw there in Euro, transfering by wiretransfer the cash back to my Bank / MTGOX  i can practically make extra cash, especially when selling out my BTC?

Currently at Bitcoin24 EURO 64.33, thats $ 82.73, means about $ 4 profit / 1 BTC.

For my 500 BTC it makes a difference in profit of $ 2000 !!!   Is that real?

EDITED

So what happens when the price keeps rising and you've done a few trades like this and now all your money is in Euro on Bitcoin24 and you've ran out of BTC on MtGox ?

Then you need to start sending wires right ?

If you just wait a bit they will catch up in value anyway, unless there's some kind of reverse trend, correction or crash.

You shouldn't have to transfer fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox for the trade itself, you should do this with some extra fiat you'd otherwise wouldn't invest in Bitcoin. Selling at Bitcoin24 and buying at MtGox should be done within a few seconds, to minimize the risk the price moves within your trade. When the trade is done, you could send some or all of your excess fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox when you expect another situation where Bitcoin24 trades at a premium.

The risk is that if you're inexperienced, it's easy to make some stupid mistake which could cost you lots of money. For that reason I prefer a buy and hold strategy.

Same strategy for the same reason...

There are not so many people in the world, who can follow Bitcoin 24/7 and have the resources to understand what is going on. That is why it seems that the market is mispricing things. We are the market, and we don't have any more capacity to arbitrage, it is currently maxed out, since to do effective trading, you need:
- time
- skill
- money.

I personally bought $130k during the last 21 hours in Bitstamp, admittedly paying more than in Gox, but I did it anyway, cold-bloodedly sending my money to the less liquid exchange because I knew I would get it there sooner. I sent a smaller chunk to Mt.Gox at the same time, yet it is still not there yet. Gox is already higher than my average entry price (of the last 21 hours).

I anticipate we breach $100 tomorrow or Thursday with 40% probability, latest next Monday in 15% probability, later next week in 15% probability, and this spring in 15% probability. See, I think there is only about 15% chance that we will not break $100 (before the summer). Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future. I know of many, that is why I am maxing out.

We are in the process of making a killing. Just be careful with the "sell" button, it is red for a reason  Cool


sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Almost at $80, fake wall removed.

legendary
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
In other news, if you want to buy some coins below $74 there are still some people at BTC-E willing to do business with you. Can't imagine why though, but these should be good times for arb traders.

Just try getting some USD on there and you will see why they are selling at lower prices.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
In other news, if you want to buy some coins below $74 there are still some people at BTC-E willing to do business with you. Can't imagine why though, but these should be good times for arb traders.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
I think the current fair price would be 83.5$ (65euros). Europeans lead this time because they are in real hard times so they simply don't trust fiat.

It has begun...

@Proudhon forget single digits we will have triple real soon!
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
Gone again!

3k to $80!
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
The wall at 80 seemed to disappear, but it's back again?? A jittery wall perhaps, with the price running up like that?
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
Aaaaand it's gone!

Edit: aaand it's back!?!?!?
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
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