John, if these problems are as classic as you claim, then surely their solutions are also classic, and will be straightforward to implement.
What then is the issue here?
What then is the issue here?
That you may not like the solutions.
Topic: Watching amateur finance types flail - page 12. (Read 35339 times)
That you may not like the solutions.
Quote from: downside
We predicted the mortgage crisis in October 2004, again in 2006, again in 2007, and said it was here in March 2008.
Ok, you kept trying and got it. By the same logic I can predict oil to fall to 5 USD or less, as eventually people will find technological alternatives and will give it no more use. Just that I would be saying this every year for 20 years(?) until eventually get it right.
I'm not an economist bs-filled or an economist at all, sorry for that, however I'm connected to web developing and even not being a designer. Man! You're even using Comic Sans for your headers... I really don't know what can be more amateurish than that, except maybe one or two marquees rolling without any relevant information.
Maybe the thread title should read: "Watching finance types with amateur websites fail" 
I think people who predict failure can never see past that.
True because then it would mean that they have to admit that they're wrong. When I'm wrong I admit it, but man people outside of the IT world NEVER admit their wrong. And sometimes they don't even shut up knowing that their wrong lol. Look at the tea-baggers 
You do know that in order to be taken seriously outside of the geek circles, Bitcoin needs people like the OP, right?
Understanding the technology does not a viable currency make.
Yes, but we don't need people like the original poster who provide a chart with nothing to back it up. Oh, and an 'investment pro' that thinks currency has 'revenue'. You've got to be kidding me. Sounds more like someone got out of business school and is a junior analyst somewhere...
That just screams "bubble" to anyone who's seen one. Bear in mind that the Bitcoin system generates no revenue. All funds must come from new investors.
I felt like responding to thank you for making a thoughtful post, if for no other reason than you're predictably getting the broad dismissal from the bulls. I definitely agree with analysis of the fundamentals of the market, though one thing struck me as I visited your site:
It's amusing watching the Bitcoin community flail around. Most of the classic financial disasters are being re-enacted in miniature. We have pyramid schemes, tulipomania, bucket shops, pump and dump... This would be fun if it were an MMORPG.
I agree that this makes the entire phenomenon fascinating. The communities openness to such transparent hucksterisms like the pyramid schemes seems to speak volumes about the main interests in bitcoins. And while I'm not schooled in such things, this also seems to be a rather unique twist on the pump in dump where there appears to be no central actor with the pumping actually done by all the market participants themselves through some kind of ad hoc understanding. It really feels to me like it's been taken hold at least in part by penny or otc manipulators. Very interesting to watch, seldom do you get such a raw view of it because of the legal implications. I just hope nobody is risking their retirement of college fund.
Cheers,
John, if these problems are as classic as you claim, then surely their solutions are also classic, and will be straightforward to implement.
What then is the issue here?
What then is the issue here?
The most classic part is Human Nature: After an extreme boom (greed) there is always extreme bust (fear)
Bitcoin will be fine, but short to medium-term you can expect to eventually see BTC for ~$2.50 (give or take 100% in either direction)
I think people who predict failure can never see past that.
People are so stupid. No one cares about your pathetic analysis. You know nothing about this technology, and the reason for the speculation and market bumps is because people like YOU.AKA People who don't understand what this is, and will probably never will. Just keep "speculating", god knows that's what you do best. 
You do know that in order to be taken seriously outside of the geek circles, Bitcoin needs people like the OP, right?
Understanding the technology does not a viable currency make.
I'm not an economist bs-filled or an economist at all, sorry for that, however I'm connected to web developing and even not being a designer. Man! You're even using Comic Sans for your headers... I really don't know what can be more amateurish than that, except maybe one or two marquees rolling without any relevant information.
First, it looks like a bubble. Here's Bitcoin before the Mt. Gox debacle:
That just screams "bubble" to anyone who's seen one. Bear in mind that the Bitcoin system generates no revenue. All funds must come from new investors. This is not like a startup company. This is a zero-sum game. If you've been in the game for half an hour and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.
Fixed.
Third, the organizations in Bitcoin's ecology are very flaky. Mt. Gox is two guys in Tokyo who are in way over their heads. We don't know much about Tradehill, which is somewhere in Chile. Neither of these "exchanges" has a published business address, a Dun and Bradstreet rating, published audits, or regulation as a bank or money transfer firm. Yet they're acting as depository institutions for sizable funds belonging to others.
I've seen several posts that echo this sentiment. What the authors of such threads fail to recognize is that fringe ideas are not embraced by the mainstream. If we all waited for Dun and Bradstreet, Goldman Sachs, etc. to enter the fray, BC would not be a new, radical idea. It would be part of the establishment. Oh course it's going to start off with two guys in the basement on a shoestring budget. How do you think Kinko's got started? Was Linux backed by Microsoft?
I imagine that centuries ago people were saying stuff like "You put your money in a Swiss bank? Are you crazy? Those guys are flakes without any established reputation or credentials."
Is there risk with BC's? Yes! Is there risk with any new, unproven idea? Yes! IMO, the author of this thread misses the whole point of BC's.
Matt
But if you build a nice Bitcoin Company that will benefit from this trend, and go public, the public will flock to you (assuming you have a decent plan, and Bitcoins keep gaining in mindshare.)
I'm clipping your post but you make a lot of valid arguments. I think the biggest "infrastructure" Bitcoin needs right now is a reliable and secure exchange. Somewhere that will provide volume and liquidity while at the same time giving investors confidence that their funds (currency or BTC's) are safe.
The Mickey Mouse exchanges we have in operation right now are just not going to cut it. The first group to make a legitimate exchange will not only greatly increase Bitcoins chances of survival but likely make a nice profit as well.
Put your money where your mouth is OP - Short BTC if you think it's going to fail.
OP is jealous b/c he struggles against all the other add-no-value-types to beat the S&P, while some risk-taker punks have invented a whole new market right under his nose. Of course he has to come here and shit on it.
But if you build a nice Bitcoin Company that will benefit from this trend, and go public, the public will flock to you (assuming you have a decent plan, and Bitcoins keep gaining in mindshare.)
I'm clipping your post but you make a lot of valid arguments. I think the biggest "infrastructure" Bitcoin needs right now is a reliable and secure exchange. Somewhere that will provide volume and liquidity while at the same time giving investors confidence that their funds (currency or BTC's) are safe.
The Mickey Mouse exchanges we have in operation right now are just not going to cut it. The first group to make a legitimate exchange will not only greatly increase Bitcoins chances of survival but likely make a nice profit as well.
However, I think you fail to take into account the rabbid 'fanboy' nature of many people involved in bitcoin.
The "rabid fanboys" certainly do exist, as can be seen from the replies in this thread. To prop up Bitcoin, they have to back their rabid fanaticism with substantial amounts of hard cash. Perhaps we don't like some idiot telling us that we're a bunch of naive, know nothing, amateurs. It's insulting. Not only is it insulting but you're wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again. You've added nothing new to the debate. You've just offered up the same flimsy arguments that have been trotted out a thousand times already.
The great thing about all this is that one day we'll know what the truth is and we all have an opportunity to put our money where our mouth is. Bitcoin has good fundamentals. If you can understand why that is then buy some and see what happens. If you don't understand why it's unique then don't. Go away if you're not interested in learning.
Nobody is forcing anyone to invest in Bitcoin. What do you hope to achieve here?
Digicoin and Beenz failed because they were centralized, and had investments in the technologies and companies themselves. Bitcoin cannot fail, because the technologies were developed for free and they are decentralized and open source.
It may devalue to the point of buying pizzas with 10k BTC again, but it will never fail completely. Bitcoin can't file for bankruptcy.
It may devalue to the point of buying pizzas with 10k BTC again, but it will never fail completely. Bitcoin can't file for bankruptcy.
The OP is just trying to drum up traffic to his site. I'll save you the time ... there's nothing there but Amazon referral links.
However, I think you fail to take into account the rabbid 'fanboy' nature of many people involved in bitcoin.
The "rabid fanboys" certainly do exist, as can be seen from the replies in this thread. To prop up Bitcoin, they have to back their rabid fanaticism with substantial amounts of hard cash. And we are all working as a community to show our talents now that the currency is actually worth something. Go check the developers section. I bet all you finance types NEVER GO THERE.
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