I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear. This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market. That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.
That means that the corresponding bull markets are:
$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160
In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back. That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out. We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology. They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money. Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born.
In other words, the price has to get close to $32. And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error. I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80.
I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.
Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined. When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
$50 is possible, but the strong fundamentals could make Right Now a true once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to catch the first ever move towards $5,000. No one knows for certain, and that makes it more exciting.
Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?
that is actually a good point. Talking about big scheme of things, one usually did not mention granularity and such "quick" events may be filtered out.
So if we apply the analysis from the OP to the levels you mentioned, revisiting somewhere around $200 should theoretically end the correction.