I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear. This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market. That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.
That means that the corresponding bull markets are:
$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160
In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back. That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out. We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology. They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money. Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born.
In other words, the price has to get close to $32. And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error. I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80.
I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.
Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined. When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
nah, i see why you think it will happen, but ure wrong imo.
Just take a look at litecoin, 50k $ each day for mined coins, and price is still the same, and the coin is useless, if ure in doubt just take a look at this corpse (litecoin.org)
but still some people buy it because theres alot of money around the crypto (mainy from bitcoin bubble), and that same money wont allow double digits to happen, 100-ish , maybe but 50$ not a chance.
cheers
