Again, you were assuming all this time, that there was an initial BIG SELL at first, and I'm telling you that that's not the case.
Now
that is a provable assertion. So prove it.
Again, I provided you supporting evidence (I'll have to be clear in my wording now) that it was the case. Yet, you misinterpret that evidence assuming things that are probably not true.
You kind of contradict yourself in the interpretations, you play the semantics game first talking about proof and supporting evidence, yet, you misinterpret or assume that by "sell" MTGox's statement meant "Big Sell"
I guess I rest my case here and again, I believe MTGox and their supporting evidence.
You're not even going to prove your assertion that there was not a BIG sell that started it all? Seems like that's a very easy assertion to prove... and your refusal implies that you can't.
To clarify: proof is data. Not somebody making a statement on their website. Thankfully, that data is available. Feel free to provide it.
I see what you did there
Let's assess the fact ok? because I believe your mind is in this state of "I must win this argument" when in fact, you should be thinking logically:
FACTS:
* There was an initial sell.
Big? Small? We do not know, but what do we know and can infer from this?:
Correction:
I do not know whether this sell was large or small. You, presumably, have looked at the charts, and thus determined where and when the selloff started, and should thereby know the value of the original sell. Right? Or are you basing all of this, your entire argument, on the statement from the guys at Gox?
* The initial sell was performed by the attacker
Presumably. Of course, we only have Gox's statement to that effect.
* The initial sell was to gain the most value for the coin at the highest price
Given that this is the motivation behind
all sell orders, large and small, malicious or virtuous, I think we can take that at face value.
If you agree to those two statements, we can proceed...
FACT:
* The attacker launches the DoS attack after a sell as stated by MTGox.
Presumably. But again, we only have Gox's statement to go by, for that. Unless, of course, they're willing to provide IP logs.
THE BIG QUESTION
Does the initial sell cause the sell-off or the destabilization of the trading engine does?
Yes, that is what we're discussing here.
Now, I have a question for you to answer:
People sell buy and sell ALL the time at MTGox. What makes THAT initial "sell" so special to cause a sell-off?
I believe this has been established. A large sell order can trigger a panic. Thus, the special feature of this sell is it's size.
The return question:
Websites (especially ones under near-constant DDoS attacks) experience outages all the time. What makes MTGox so special that being unable to log in, or make a trade, would cause someone to panic and sell all their coins
using that very system?
Please think logically before answering and let your biased obsession for winning this argument go.
And that's all I have to say about that.
You might be wise to take your own advice, here.
"believe this has been established. A large sell order can trigger a panic. Thus, the special feature of this sell is it's size."
Agreed, a large sell can trigger a panic, again, MTGox can detect that and pinpoint the original transaction and find WHO the attacker is.
You'd think MTGox can easily spot That first sell transaction and that's why my contention is that such large sell didn't take place! it'd be easily detected. Again, I don't expect at this point to agree with me. Its been proven that you don't. I don't really care about trying to convince you, I'm just pointing out the logical approach in why it is my contention that there wasn't a big sell that caused the panic and the DoS was responsible.
MTGox is the biggest exchange for bitcoins in terms of transactions and volume, although some people seem to disagree on this. They process more than 70% of the whole exchange market.
That being said, it's easy to see why a collapse, a DoS attack, a hack can cause people to panic and sell (Remember 2011?)
Honestly, after the facts presented, do you still believe that a big sell was the cause of the panic?
How do they hide the "big sell" transaction from MTGox so MtGox doesn't take action against that particular account?
We can go on and on with this, my contention won't change and I believe it's the most logical explanation. Can I be wrong? sure. But the evidence is enough for me to believe that I'm right.