I agree that the price is bound to be higher in the future.
I agree that MTGox's stability can affect the market price... at least on MTGox.
But you refuse to countenance the idea that the instability might have saved us from a deeper dip, and that's funny. And a little sad, because your only evidence to the contrary amounts to "MTGox said so."
So, we'll agree to disagree, so long you're OK with me considering you a moron.
The fact that he fails to see how the main exchange going offline could actually help prevent a panic sell, in much the same way as closing the banks, prevents runs on banks etc, shows that his whole line of reasoning is based on fulfilling what he desires the case to be. Probably, he doesn't even realise that he is doing it. He may even through pure chance (certainly not through accurate market insight), execute his 'exit strategy', before this bubble pops. If that is the case both his wealth and ego will swell to unfathomable heights, rendering him even more unbearable than he has already shown himself to be.
I don't know the numbers, but if bitcoin is 90% speculation and 10% commerce/trading of merchandise the only tendency that I see here is that the volume in transactions related to trading/ecommerce/exchange of goods will only increase and the amount of speculative capital will decrease until they even out.
If someone could tell me for sure that 10% of the total Bitcoin trade volume is due to real economic transactions, then I would be jumping into Bitcoin face first, even at these prices. However, I suspect that to determine the percentage of Bitcoin trade volume that actually constitutes real exchange, that you would have to be looking at a decimal figure. If I am correct, then under no conditions, could Bitcoin be considered a safe haven investment suitable for masses of fleeing capital. Alongside the myriad of heuristics, which have the conceivable potential to bring down Bitcoin within a single day (some of which you have mentioned), all that Bitcoin can be considered at the present time, is as an incredibly risky speculative venture, with the potential to net investors huge gains, providing they don't already believe that the top has blown too high already. With that in mind, Bitcoin couldnt be any less attractive a proposition to any sizable business that is run with a modicum of risk aversion in its company ethos.
Until this bubble pops, and some stability is found at massively decreased prices, real world transactions using Bitcoin cannot expand in any meaningful way. In between now and then, is a high risk guessing game, trying to gauge the level of fuel left in the speculative movement into Bitcoin, both in terms of the 'innocent' speculators and those entities who are very probably knowlingly manipulating what is still a miniscule, and thus still a very easily pushed around market.