Topic: We can breath now. - page 2. (Read 6254 times)

The fact that he fails to see how the main exchange going offline could actually help prevent a panic sell, in much the same way as closing the banks, prevents runs on banks etc, shows that his whole line of reasoning is based on fulfilling what he desires the case to be. Probably, he doesn't even realise that he is doing it. He may even through pure chance (certainly not through accurate market insight), execute his 'exit strategy', before this bubble pops. If that is the case both his wealth and ego will swell to unfathomable heights, rendering him even more unbearable than he has already shown himself to be.



If someone could tell me for sure that 10% of the total Bitcoin trade volume is due to real economic transactions, then I would be jumping into Bitcoin face first, even at these prices. However, I suspect that to determine the percentage of Bitcoin trade volume that actually constitutes real exchange, that you would have to be looking at a decimal figure.   If I am correct, then under no conditions, could Bitcoin be considered a safe haven investment suitable for masses of fleeing capital.  Alongside the myriad of heuristics, which have the conceivable potential to bring down Bitcoin within a single day (some of which you have mentioned), all that Bitcoin can be considered at the present time, is as an incredibly risky speculative venture, with the potential to net investors huge gains, providing they don't already believe that the top has blown too high already. With that in mind, Bitcoin couldnt be any less attractive a proposition to any sizable business that is run with a modicum of risk aversion in its company ethos.

Until this bubble pops, and some stability is found at massively decreased prices, real world transactions using Bitcoin cannot expand in any meaningful way. In between now and then, is a high risk guessing game, trying to gauge the level of fuel left in the speculative movement into Bitcoin, both in terms of the 'innocent' speculators and those entities who are very probably knowlingly manipulating what is still a miniscule, and thus still a very easily pushed around market.

What makes more sense? That they're telling the god's honest truth, or that they're covering their ass? Let's ask Dr. House:



Well, there you go.

As is your right.
Nor any reason to take it as fact, either. It should be noted, of course, that it doesn't contradict my proposed theory, nor does it back yours up.

It's only a new twist if you haven't actually been reading what I've been writing. I've used that at least twice. Which brings me to my second point. I'm not calling you names, I am making an observation of your perceived intelligence, based on your ability to accept new information, and your willingness to accept a PR statement as fact.

Let me sum up my theory that MTGox's instability prevented a deeper dip:
Panic sell starts. Instability prevents users from entering new sell orders, or altering their buy orders. Buy orders are executed automatically, panic sell hits wall, price stabilizes. Users get back on, see stable price, and cease panicking.

You'll note also, that this meshes well with the theory that the panic sell caused the instability... if a constant DDoS is on-going, and suddenly there's more legit activity, such as a panic sell, the servers may well be unable to handle it.

The funny thing is, I agree that MTGox's central position is absurd.
I agree that the price is bound to be higher in the future.
I agree that MTGox's stability can affect the market price... at least on MTGox.

But you refuse to countenance the idea that the instability might have saved us from a deeper dip, and that's funny. And a little sad, because your only evidence to the contrary amounts to "MTGox said so."

So, we'll agree to disagree, so long you're OK with me considering you a moron.

Quite clearly. My question remains, though: If your confidence is shaken so much that you feel you must get your money out of that service, why would you, instead of withdrawing bitcoins, and selling elsewhere, sell there, and hope they have the USD to cover it? Certainly you're not implying that Bitcoin's stability is dependent on MTGox's?

Still waiting on facts - and not opinions - to be presented. I'll let you know once you present some facts.

You're assuming that they would. They would need concrete proof that the DDoS is coming from that person. Not just a coincidence of timing.

By "evidence," you mean the statement you linked to earlier? I've yet to see any other evidence presented.

By the by, you are aware that all Gox's buy and sell orders are a matter of public record, and easily accessible? I can look just as well as you can, and the longer this continues with you not presenting any hard facts, the more likely it is that I go do that. What do you want to bet I find a nice large sale right at the start of the "crash"?

All of your claims are unprovable because they all just amount to your opinion and/or your personal will on the matters being discussed. Opinions cannot be quantified and proven. It may turn out that you are right in the long run, but for all the wrong reasons. In which case, you wouldnt be 'right', you would have just gotten lucky, which would make all the arrogance in your replies and condecension towards other peoples comments who have a different view from you, even more intolerable.

See, in my opinion, the fundamentals underpinning the Bitcoin boom are frighteningly weak. The transactions involving real goods and services have always accounted for a very small fraction of the total USD volume in Bitcoins, and that was before the price jumped 700% in 5 months. That means the vast majority of the money in Bitcoins is speculative capital chasing large profits. Now, as I understand it, your opinion differs in that you believe something more along the lines of the boom in Bitcoins being largely due to capital fleeing the collapsing petrodollar system, towards a safer, anonynmous, yet still highly convenient digital currency. However, the fact that you, despite being an early adopter, openly boast of your ever so ingenius 'exit strategy', suggests that your main motivation is, or has become, to seek maximum speculative USD profit.

Now, it is a well known human trait, that traders (that is what you and 99.95% of the other bitcoin participants are or have become as a result of this mega bubble) are much quicker to sell stocks that have gained in value, in order to lock in profit, than they are to sell stocks which have stagnated and/or declined in value. The big question is, when does the Bitcoin rocket run out of juice? That will be a matter of two things.
 
a) When the herd stampede organically peters out.

or perhaps more crucially.

b) When the powerful hands with the might to drive the market up or down, decide that it is time to let Bitcoin plummet back down to Earth.

As soon as enough of the specualtive herd get a whiff that the top is in. They will drop Bitcoins like a burning lump of dog shit.

Of course, with Bitcoins characteristic volatilty, the coin can drop in value by 40% in a few hours without it being cause for mass hysteria, which could both serve as the factor that prolongs the bubble and also the factor that causes the amateurs to fail to jump of the train as it goes over its final cliff edge.

This of course just my opinion and instead of pouring scorn and derision on it, why don't you try to 'prove' that I am wrong. Clutching at random cherry picked 'facts' that just so happen to support your own personal paradigm does not count as 'proving anything. Oh yes, and bare in mind, my opinion is based on market behviour that has repeated itself time and time again over hundreds of years. Your is based on, 'ah, but this time it is different'.

I see what you did there 

Let's assess the fact ok? because I believe your mind is in this state of "I must win this argument" when in fact, you should be thinking logically:

FACTS:

* There was an initial sell.

Big? Small? We do not know, but what do we know and can infer from this?: