Topic: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? - page 13. (Read 20593 times)

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure.

eehm not exactly the same because...

first the reward is different, litecoin is still at 25, and bitcoin will be 12.5, so it is better to compare this ltiecoin halving to the last halving of bitcoin, which is also pointless

second they have a different market cap, the result will be vastly different

third the network of litecoin is divivded in many other scrypt coin that are worth it, instead speaking about sha256, there is no competitor for bitcoin

Litecoin halving in 2 months and look what the price has done in the last few weeks.  That should give you an idea.

And yet over 7% of all bitcoins are owned by one person. Even with a massive upswing in demand the price can be tanked overnight.

...

I am not sure that halving the reward rate will make much difference in the BTC price.

Keep in mind that the stock:flow rate of BTC is getting higher all the time (more BTC around vs. less production).  But the stock is so large that the new production does not add much to the new supply.  What seems to me to be a larger component to future price moves in BTC is demand, as the supply numbers are known and so tiny.

Bitcoin is the only commodity in history that has a GUARANTEED REDUCTION in rewards by 50% every few years until returns drop to ZERO.Bitcoins value will skyrocket

if it will go up(and it will), expect a crash after that, because many holders are just waiting 1k target, for selling their stash, i presume we get rid of those, in the journey for the 10k target, but then expect another bigger crash, if we ever reach that sum with this halving

if we repeat the same pump of the last ath, we should increase x 10, this mean around 2k in price for the next halving

Wait until the end of this year, I agree if the price stable until end of this year, let say around $320 I'm sure will going up in 2016.

Imagine if the halving would happen tomorrow.. it's obvious what would happen, the price would go up insanely, but probably would not double.
The halving isnt a mistery when it comes to terms of price, its what will happen until then is whats unknown.
We could easily see a 100-150 USD prices until the halving and then the same range we have today; it all depends on the demand until that date.
imho it's safe to assume that what ever happens, people probably wont loose money if the invest today, and hold their coins until the halving, but nothing is guaranteed.

cheers

Higher fees to get a transaction processed.

To make a blanket statement that the reduction of inflation 50% had nothing to do with the 2 bubbles is pure head in the sand. The fact that the first bubble happened a couple of months after really is only a reflection of the culmulative/compound aspect of a reduction in inflation. Hence my 2.7% explanation.

The exchange markets control and set the price of BTC.  People who sell on the exchanges are A) traders - the largest and B) miners - the 2nd largest group. Very few long term holders sell on exchanges. At least at current prices.

When miners have many fewer coins to sell, the equilibrium will slowly swing upwards.

The last 2 bubbles were a combination of this fact, willy bot, and closed loop fomo.  Sans the willy bot, the same factors will be in play after the next halving.

A drop of 6.25 vs. 12.5 is arguably not as strong. However, I believe that most non-trader buyers are long term holders/investors so if the demand remains constant the supply will be in more and more jeopardy.

There is also the psychological aspect of scarcity. Yes, logically you know that there are only 21 million coins in future supply. But human emotions - the things that drive market prices - don't react logically. When scarcity is promoted or the idea seems more prevalent, the market will react emotionally. Its like global warming. Most people dont care until something happens to effect them personally that they think is related to global warming. Most humans have no foresight. They are driven by in-the-moment emotions and reactions. Financial market traders are some of the most notorious extremists of this type.

Hence I expect to see front running of the halving a good 6+ months prior to halving as bitcoin is now much more in the news, press and has a much larger base of investors and traders than in 2012.

We will probably see price rise into the halving and then possibly dip after (buy rumor, sell news).  That is why I said the effect may be more spread out this time. However, the supply/demand aspects will still be in effect even if it dips. I would fully expect it to rise again.

A wild moon appears

I believe that the halving will have an effect over a long period (reducing inflation from 8% to 4%), but no discernible effect in the short term. The change in supply is just too small to make a noticeable difference. If you believe differently, then please explain why the price remained completely flat for two months after the first halving.

The bubbles that began in March and October had nothing to do with the halving.


It doesn't make sense that 12.5-to-6.25 change will have a much bigger effect than the 25-to-12.5 change. I suppose you believe that when the block reward drops from 2 satoshis to 1 satoshi, the result will be out-of-this-world even though there will already be 2,000,000,000,000,000 satoshis in circulation.

What do you think will happen to the price when the reward goes to 0? By your logic, bitcoins will become priceless.

This is silly. Lets say for a minute that 135k coins actually get trade each day, even though its known that a lot of chinese volume is fake.

So for the price to stay the same it takes around 67.5k buys and 67.5k sells. Now lets subtract 1.8k from the sells. Now we have a 1.8k deficit or about a 2.7% daily deficit. Now over 365 days thats close to a 600k coin deficit. In other words a 985.5% coin deficit on the sell side. If you don't think 600k coins will move the exchange market, just watch.

Before the last halving the price was between $8-$12.  A few months later it was at $200+. A few months later it was at $1250. It was not a coincidence.

More people will front run it this time, so the effects could be spread out and not as intense. Then again, its 50% fewer coins than last time, so it could be more intense, depending on demand.

Quotes like this amuse me. How there is no obvious correlation in your mind is a real curiousity.

At any rate, the price will go up if exchange demand stays the same.

this next one is going to be REALLY interesting. Mining operations are already at a massive scale ASICs(ASICs) compared to what they were during the last halving

The price started going up right after the last halving

Price will go up or less people will mine. Or if those will stay same, price of electricity will halve, but that is quite unlikely to happen.

i think we have to keep in mind that block reward decreasing means that miners will earn less bitcoin. and since they are not dumping what they earned right after they got it, it doesn't necessarily mean that "supply" which is the "quantity supplied by producers" or being sold in the market is going to be decreased at the same rate.

Price will go up, media will go nuts, people will fomo then it will crash.