Topic: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? - page 10. (Read 20593 times)

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Ah, that probability would vary between some 6% and 93%!  Depending on how many marbles of each color are in the bag.  Need to have an idea of the distribution of each color in the population, also assuming each marble the same size, texture, physical placement of marbles within the bag, etc.

At the risk of beating a dead horse ...


Then the demand you are talking about must be the demand for newly mined bitcoins, right? Either way, new bitcoins are indistinguishable from old bitcoins, so it doesn't make sense to talk about only new bitcoins.


Basically, that is invalid because you are comparing the demand for all bitcoins to the supply of new bitcoins. The supply of new bitcoins is halved, but the supply of bitcoins continues to rise.


I have a bag containing 99 marbles. There are three colors of marbles in the bag: red, green, and blue. If I pick one at random, what is the probability of it not being red? The correct answer is not 2/3. I'll let you figure out why not.

i just made it simple without all the hassle about it, i know there are more variables in play(like miners efficiency)

well you can lock one and predict how the market will play, this how you do it with two variables

i was not talking about the total supply of course, but about the mined supply, which is the block reward...

they aren't wild guesses at all, they are all based about what will happen if the demand changes in only 3 possible ways, up, down, remain the same

up and remain the same are in our favor, because of the supply halving unless miners efficiency will be so big, that they will consume 1/2 of what they consume now to match the halving, which is impossible

and there is no guessing here, the efficiency doesn't double within a year, actually it is more slim than many think, around 10%


and anyway it is a matter of simple logic, we know what will happen with the supply, so the only real variable is the demand here, the other variable is the coins that are held by early adopters, but i will not take those into consideration because they are a big portion of demand too, so we can consider them neutral

fact 1 if the demand rise the price must rise, because the supply(mined supply, aka block reward) will be halved
fact 2 if the demand stay the same, the price must rise, because the reward will be halved
fact 3 if the demand decline the price will probably decline, it depend on how much it will decline, because if the decline will not be greater, than the less absorbtion that the market need to absorb, because there are less coins dumped from the miners, then the price will stay the same

so we have two cases where the price will go up and one where it will probably go down, now it is clear like the sun that there are more chances of an increase than a decrease, here no one was talking about a 100% increase scenario, only probability, like always it work

Your assumptions are questionable and the math doesn't work that way because:

1. Supply and demand include all bitcoins, not just newly minted ones.
2. Supply and demand are curves and their intersection determines the price.
3. The halving doesn't decrease the money supply, it decreases the growth of the money supply.
4. Those outcomes not the only possible outcomes and the probabilities are just wild guesses.

It would be very interesting to get an idea of where freshly mined coins go. I would guess very, very few hit an exchange. They're either hoarded or sold with pre existing OTC deals.

Either way, other than some sort of psychological boost, I think the effect on price will be borderline negligible unless demand goes through the roof. There are more than enough sellers of existing coins to satisfy everyone.

It's obvious that the price will increase when there is less supply, most people will agree. Especially when demand stays the same. 50% less supply doesn't mean we'll see the price increase to x2 from current price.

That's what most people hope for, but we still have to deal with a huge load of people who are ready to sell to benefit from the rise. I think a fair estimate would be at around $400 when halving is done.

well no there are some bases that tell you why it should skyrocket to x2, and 1k is only x2 that, you really think that it is so far stretched that bitcoin will reach 1k around the next halving? what i believe is that 1k is even a low amount for the next halving

if the demand stay the same(very likely) the price must rise to accomodate the fact that there will be less dumping, this is a fact

now let's give equal chances of a rise and a decline(because they are unknown)

if the demand rise you will get an amount that is above x2 of current price(because of the 12.5 reward)

if the demand decline you will get the same price as now(because of the 12.5 reward)

so we have in the end, 33% chance that it will double due to halving, 33% that it will increase above the doubling of the halving, and 33% that it will stay the same, now it's obvious that the probability is toward a rise...

I expected such a comment from a newbie, but certainly not from a high ranked hero member. You just seem to live in a fantasy world, like plenty of other people here are.

Lol. Funny troll post.

Or wait till it goes back up to $1,200 to buy then sell at $250 cuz you need the money. lol

There is a lot of wishful thinking, speculation, and random guesses in this thread. I can do that too.

It seems pretty straightforward: half the bitcoins, half the price. Sell now.

doubling seems the minimum that it should happen with the halving, i'm expecting far more than that to be honest, a good return to the 1k price, will be a better thing to reflect the halving

if we can correct the price by 5 usd every week(like we are doing with the last mini-pump) we have already a 250+ increase before the halving

Doubling seems topic, but bitcoin will go up a bit for sure - if will survive till that time

I'm hoping the halving in 2016 will double the price in Bitcoin. I'm hoping the value of bitcoin gets to $1000 by then. I have a security contract witgh cloudminr.io and I hope by then I will have profitied quite substantially through trading.

A bubble to 20k down to 8k then back up to 70k

The block halving wont simply double the bitcoin, it seems to send it into another price bubble. Consider we had a move from $10 - $266 and then a move from around $100 - $1200 all off the back of the previous block halving what do you think will happen this time now we are safely above $200 as a start point.

I share your opinion. Price will rise in advance to the halving. And the miners won't increase their hashpower, they are going to wait for the reduced block reward.

what i predict is that the price will rise after the tx limitation is increase, this will act as a sort of another little block halving, that will encourage many to adopt bitcoin and thus rising its price

so i'm expecting two bubble in 2016 or from late 2015 to the end of 2016

The price would increase in the run up to the halving... not necessarily immediately after halving.
So you would have no base to compare to.

If price doesn't double I'd say we have a serious problem.  It would basically mean adoption is decreaseing as less money needs to come in daily to maintain price.