When something is widely expected in the financial markets, it is unlikely to occur.
Could be an antibubble before or bubble afterwards or beforehand.
If some serious fund wanted to push bitcoin upward, it would already be at 10K, no need to wait for halving.
Bitcoin issuance is ~1mil/day currently when AAPL and GOOGL traded $10-20bil worth in one day recently.
$1mil/day is nothing for even a medium size fund.
Topic: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? - page 6. (Read 20573 times)
I expect exaggerated expectations.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.
It's not that bad to dream about unicorns every now and then, but hey! Maybe it would happen in the future, but next halving it will be highly unlikely. I expect just a 100% - 200% at most price rise if you would ask me. That is already a realistic guesstimate by me.
traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"
if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said
if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said
You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.
At some point this year all of the stability recently combined with the upcoming halving is going to likely work together to create quite a violent bull market.
The next bubble will be incredible.
The next bubble will be incredible.
Yes, a bull run is long overdue. It has been around 1.5 years since the crash from the ATH.
When it does happen, I hope I hold on tight.
bull market is good ... when gov. can not freeze the value (like in gold now ...).
because low value ... permit to peoples to buy (like me).
because low value ... permit to peoples to buy (like me).
At some point this year all of the stability recently combined with the upcoming halving is going to likely work together to create quite a violent bull market.
The next bubble will be incredible.
The next bubble will be incredible.
traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"
if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said
If you go to http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/, you can see daily exchange volumes for most exchanges. The total today is about 100k BTC, but it doesn't include all exchanges.
Actually, researchers should examine it and should predict whether halving has really got such an impact on price 
It's quite unlikely to happen I guess.
Halving will halve the steady supply. If demand stays the same, we will go up !!!
It's quite unlikely to happen I guess.
I expect exaggerated expectations.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.
I know it's a bold prediction. Predicting outcomes everyone thinks are likely is lame... We'll see...
Edit: Yes, From Current price. so 3000 USD/btc
Edit2: if my Prediction comes true, people will probably deny that it was an effect of the halfing. Like last time they will come up with explanations that make for a better sorry. Like cyprus, lol.
I am also hoping for a big price increase (lol aren't we all), but isn't 10x a little drastic? I think it'll maybe be around 2x to 5x.
We exactly 1 year before the Halving block reward , Price should rise but if miners give up on mining then it will go down and die like hell. but I guess if halving is done miners will ask for more as a price which will make price rise , so depends on what those Miner farms owners decide to do . they have our future
Maybe will go high but not for the halved fact. Was not verified when was the first half of amount (from 50 to 25). At least i don't remember this. So have no reason to be verified with this second halved.
Halving will halve the steady supply. If demand stays the same, we will go up !!!
It's quite unlikely to happen I guess.
I expect exaggerated expectations.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.
I know it's a bold prediction. Predicting outcomes everyone thinks are likely is lame... We'll see...
Edit: Yes, From Current price. so 3000 USD/btc
Edit2: if my Prediction comes true, people will probably deny that it was an effect of the halfing. Like last time they will come up with explanations that make for a better sorry. Like cyprus, lol.
this is math, man... it's not my logic, you can't say 4% based on a subtraction of the inflation rate from 8 to 4, that's not correct
if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day
if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%
this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360
if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day
if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%
this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360
I don't know what you mean by "total coins dumped per day". The total volume of coins traded per day is in the 100s of thousands, and a change by only 1800 per day is not going to have a noticeable daily effect, though it will have a long term effect.
traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"
if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said
He's talking about transaction volume and number of unique transactions per day. Both of those are available on blockchain.info if you trust their stats. Don't get too excited. I used to play at trading and would make 50-100 unique transactions a day shifting coins around. The exchanges shift around masses of coin and sometimes move 50k or more coins in a single transaction. Mining farms paying out their miners shares are making transactions. Miners may only generate 1,800 coins but those coins are split and paid out to thousands of people. Remember, if you simply transfer coins from a cold wallet to a hot wallet or vice versa without spending any coin that's a transaction. I would guess that transactions where someone is actually spending coin on something (not day trading or shifting around) is about 10% of the transaction volume.
The large rocket
What do you expect from the halving next year regarding price development of Bitcoin?
Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results by a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.
What do you think?
Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results by a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.
What do you think?
Maybe you are right but I don't think so. You think that the price will go high because of the halved production of bitcoins in a block? What make it special to be counted? I don't think that there is nothing special on it. Even if it will be few bitcoin produced in the same time. I don't think that the price of bitcoin it is fixed by the demand of it. To very few people use bitcoin. I think that the price of bitcoin depends for to many other factors one of the most important is speculation. And the speculation have nothing to do with the produced bitcoins.
That is a bod prediction in my opinion. i guess the price will not increase that much. it will double from the current price at most within the next year.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
I expect exaggerated expectations.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
I expect exaggerated expectations.
Zoom out!
I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.
a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.
this is math, man... it's not my logic, you can't say 4% based on a subtraction of the inflation rate from 8 to 4, that's not correct
if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day
if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%
this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360
if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day
if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%
this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360
I don't know what you mean by "total coins dumped per day". The total volume of coins traded per day is in the 100s of thousands, and a change by only 1800 per day is not going to have a noticeable daily effect, though it will have a long term effect.
traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"
if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said
If bitcoin won't be obsolete or worse by then, I expect the seller pressure to be halved soon after the block halving.
Several months after this, price should peak at 10 - 20 times the level at the moment of halving.
Several months after this, price should peak at 10 - 20 times the level at the moment of halving.
I hated you as a bear.
You were mostly right, though. I pretty much agree with your view about the effect of the halfing.Jump to: