Halving will not have any effect on price. There will be 3/4 of all coins in rotation already. It will only have effect on difficulty...
a maximum of 1800 coins will be dumped only per day in comparison with 3600 of today, which is 500k+ less to absorb, how is this not significant?
1800 coins per day out of 100's of thousands of coins traded per day is insignificant, but the inflation rate is reduced from 8% to 4%, and that should have a small long term effect -- perhaps 4%.
as i see it a reduction of 50%(from 8 to 4) is equal to an increase(of the price in the long term) of 100% so 4% is not right, unless you think that right now we have a 2% effect on the market....
Does you logic also work when there are nearly 21 million bitcoins and the halving goes from 2 satoshis down to 1 satoshi? When the halving goes from 1 satoshi to 0 satoshis, would the 100% decrease cause a 200% increase or an infinite increase in the price?
this is math, man... it's not my logic, you can't say 4% based on a subtraction of the inflation rate from 8 to 4, that's not correct
if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day
if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%
this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360
