What if this pandemic persists till the end of the year? - page 5.

YOSHIE

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives.

"If this pandemic continues at the end of the year. The worst factor is: (economic) growth is being held hostage for a long time.

If this happens, there is no other way that can be done, except: by avoiding people not depressed during the Covid-19 pandemic, the government firmly to support businesses, companies in their respective countries, don't mess with one fiscal & monetary decision on the world economy, what the government really needs to do is: find an accurate cure for (covid-19) sufferers, in order to cure the world economy today.

If the government cannot cope, a troubled stock market, a devastated exchange rate, foreign loans swell, oil falls, unemployment, etc.
The biggest threat to the world 'Economy' will deteriorate and destruction is in sight.

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Quote from: el kaka22 on June 24, 2020, 02:27:00 PM

There is nothing we can do to stop it, it looks like it will "persist" until the year ends however there is a big difference between how it started and how it is right now. Remember how Italy got all this many people sick? Because, there was thousands of people on the north side who believed heat helps and they moved to south side to recover and didn't cared about infecting others as well and that raised to a national threat level.

Now that is just one example, there was ton of other stuff that got affected as well in every nation, which means people are smarter now compared to back when it first started. We wear masks, even gloves to make sure and have been trying to avoid each other and stay away from each other etc etc. Even doctors know how to treat you well much better. So, I think even if it continues, it will not be as bad as it used to be.

Of course things will not be the same just like how ut started. People have already learned lessons from the past so now they are more aware on following precautionary measures for their own safety. When it comes to our country's economy, the government is starting to uplift the income of the country encouraging all the workers to work again so that people can sustain their own needs already without continue asking for financial help in the government.

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The vaccine wont propagate any sooner then the end of the year and it wont reach millions of people this year at all. So you have a variable restriction on some businesses depending on how reliant they are for close personal contact to perform business. Apparently something as simple as a hairdresser have assembled a plan to reduce contact and slow the spread and shutdown of their sector by becoming hot spots but I think many mistakes will be made and lessons will have to be learnt. People will naturally spread this virus and 1% or more will die is the impact for all of this year.
The best or most optimistic news I heard was a breakthrough in vaccine development that could lead to some high risk receiving treatment by around December. But mass production even in this ideal scenario is not occurring this year. The neutral or worst case scenario is 2022 or 2023 for most people to be able to receive a vaccine. So its pretty long lasting in how society will require to change and adapt to use greater distance or suffer fatal losses and health impact lasting months or years in some cases.

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

If there's one thing I've learnt, Its the fact that humans can adapt to any situation they find themselves. Although most businesses have stopped on-site activities and moved to a remote setup. At this point, Its clear that the pandemic is going to be around for much longer than expected – say till the end of the year as no effective vaccine has been released yet. Until then, We have to look for ways to adapt and move forward until a workaround cure for COVID-19 becomes available.

No matter how we tried, several sectors of economics will not function at full capacity. The goal should be to survive the pandemic for as long as possible.

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Quote from: abhiseshakana on June 24, 2020, 06:18:50 AM

Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives. it has been accompanied by widescale job loss, a rise in the unemployment rate, a reduced standard of living, and intense hardship. From the economic perspective, what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

Goldman Sach was able to provide information that even until the end of 2022, Corona will still exist and remain a pandemic in many countries

Amazingly, investment banks don't seem to care though. According to a UBS analyst, they are banking on (and will continue to bank on) central bank stimulus and the ultimate success of vaccines and treatments. They don't care that COVID-19 seems to be worsening around the world and are assuming that health care systems are capable of handling the load.

Major bank turns bullish on global stocks despite a resurgence in coronavirus cases

In other words, stock prices at this point have very little do with actual fundamental company valuations. It's a very sick and twisted situation. I fear regular people are being fooled into believing the narrative that rising markets can be equated to a real economic recovery.

el kaka22

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There is nothing we can do to stop it, it looks like it will "persist" until the year ends however there is a big difference between how it started and how it is right now. Remember how Italy got all this many people sick? Because, there was thousands of people on the north side who believed heat helps and they moved to south side to recover and didn't cared about infecting others as well and that raised to a national threat level.

Now that is just one example, there was ton of other stuff that got affected as well in every nation, which means people are smarter now compared to back when it first started. We wear masks, even gloves to make sure and have been trying to avoid each other and stay away from each other etc etc. Even doctors know how to treat you well much better. So, I think even if it continues, it will not be as bad as it used to be.

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives. it has been accompanied by widescale job loss, a rise in the unemployment rate, a reduced standard of living, and intense hardship. From the economic perspective, what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

The pandemic is not going to disappear, it is still going to be with us probably until the end of the next year in which a vaccine would have been developed and distributed by then, but the economic effects are going to last probably even longer than that, how many business have closed down and are never going to open their doors again? And if anything else happens during the next year and a half then even more business that are struggling will declare bankruptcy, this could create a banking crisis and with governments as indebted as they are they will most likely fail to protect the economy this time around and things could get really ugly in a hurry.

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Personally, I think that this pandemic process will extend until the next year, not the end of the year, and will continue for a very long time. Especially if it is necessary to think that this pandemic process damaged the world economy more than human health, we are likely to encounter much more serious problems in the coming period. Again, I think that the world economy will not be able to withstand a second wave shock, and that this virus may cause more serious economic collapses if the spread rate of this virus increases again. It is a fact that many countries unfortunately do not have enough economic power to handle a second wave.

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives. it has been accompanied by widescale job loss, a rise in the unemployment rate, a reduced standard of living, and intense hardship. From the economic perspective, what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

what is clear is that if it drags on until the end of the year, it is very predictable that another outbreak will occur. but there is already optimism from several countries that many drugs have been tried to reduce mortality and cure rates from those indicated severe. even though it has not yet been mass analyzed, there is no alternative because it must be used immediately. hopefully the drug that is starting to try can produce the latest news.

many countries have begun to loosen up by not doing lockdowns anymore for areas that are already green, but for areas that are still red it is still being done. easing with the aim of the recovery of economic movements in all sectors with of course still using strict health protocols. Physical distancing is very tightly implemented and the transportation sector is reduced by half that can be used with the addition of other transportation equipment, of course. then with the onset of moving the economy can at least reduce the burden borne by the state to provide assistance which would certainly seize foreign exchange reserves.

sunsilk

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Quote from: Barnabe on June 23, 2020, 07:14:11 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on June 23, 2020, 07:10:17 PM

The same as what we're experiencing today. But all of these are temporary because we'll be going back to normal as soon as possible whenever we've got to see the vaccine. It will end all of these bad things that are happening to us.

The adjustment has to be made so that it can ensure everyone's safety but the recoil of it to the economy is huge. There will be a slowmo recovery as for the economy because most countries are starting to allow businesses to get back again to their operations.

Where I am living, the government is almost pushing people to physically go to work (instead of working at home), some people say that leaders are afraid of the effects of a big portion of the population only working at home (less taxes from transportation/fuel, less employment in restaurants around workplaces, drop of real estate prices if companies decide to downscale their facilities, etc)

It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next months.

That's a crazy reason if your government leaders were pushing people to go back to work without even suggesting that those jobs that are flexible and the work at home scheme is applicable to them. Are you sure that your leaders were thinking like that?

Because if there is an option to work at home, that's the best for those workers. I understand taxation and fuel consumption which is basically one of the important needs for the economy to go back. But they must think of the health of their people first before taxes, oh well, if it's about taxes no argument regarding that against the government.

Ozero

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Now they really predict that coronavirus will periodically manifest itself both in winter and spring of next year. However, they believe that the consequences will no longer be so painful, because people and governments have already learned how to deal with the spread of coronavirus. However, the global economy will not recover quickly. Its effects will be felt for decades.
The problems that have already been posed by unprecedented measures to combat the spread of coronavirus can still grow into mass protests of people, because the standard of living in many states has fallen to a critical level.

The Sceptical Chymist

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What if? Hell, I'm expecting this to go on for the rest of the year at least. Even if businesses start to reopen and life starts slowly approaching "normal" again, people are still going to have a lasting sense of being freaked out by all of this. I don't think we're going to see physical distancing or mask-wearing stop at any time before the end of the year.

And who knows if we're going to see another round of infections, maybe by a mutated form of the virus. That certainly could happen, though I'm hopeful a vaccine will eventually get developed and released. We'll see. This question OP asked has actually been on my mind lately, as well as when we're going to see an end to the general social unrest that's going on around the world. It's pretty crazy out there these days.

cryptoboy007

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Quote from: hahay on June 24, 2020, 09:42:32 AM

I am also worried about the same thing because after the easing period is enacted and shifted to the new normal era, at least every day there is always an increase in patients affected by coronavirus and even there are large companies that precisely in this new normal era shut down production so that more and more people are losing their jobs. The government will always try to keep the economy under control, so even though this pandemic continues, with these efforts at least the crisis can be minimized, because with this new normal era some industrial sectors can operate with established health protocols. Hopefully the vaccine for this problem can be found soon

Hopefully, the vaccine is found. Normal life might never remain the same should this pandemic continues

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives. it has been accompanied by widescale job loss, a rise in the unemployment rate, a reduced standard of living, and intense hardship. From the economic perspective, what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

most of small and medium sized businesses are going to close and won't be open in next year at least, because rent payment is going to be higher for sure.
most of human population will have 0 saving and/or credit debt which is going to lower their purchasing power (dead small businesses once again).
unfortunately, criminal activity will increase everywhere.
If we're going to be kept like this for another 6 months I believe we will have to work this out for 2 years at least

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Quote from: exstasie on June 23, 2020, 08:11:48 PM

Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

It's almost 6 months since the coronavirus took its toll on every aspect of human lives. it has been accompanied by widescale job loss, a rise in the unemployment rate, a reduced standard of living, and intense hardship. From the economic perspective, what will be the fate of the global economic situation and normal day to day business if this pandemic doesn't go away by the end of this year?

There is almost no chance it will "go away" by year end. The virus mutates too slowly to burn itself out by then. Transmission data is now suggesting (at least in the US) that there will be no second or third wave, just a never-ending slow burn of cases. Even the most optimistic vaccine timelines (which themselves are not realistic) come with problems: inability to produce the vaccine at scale for billions of people, and strong anti-vaccine sentiment.

There are lots of clinical trials happening by now but it seems that the formula for vaccine is hard to find, we already gathered the doctors and scientists of our time yet we can't still have it. I guess there second wave that they are saying is a spike or increase in number of cases since we already see it flattening. Hence, as we don't have the vaccine yet expect this situation to prolong until 2021 or worst in 2022. crossed fingers*

Quote from: exstasie on June 23, 2020, 08:11:48 PM

All that to say we shouldn't speculate about the pandemic ending so soon. We should definitely be preparing for it to stay with us through the end of the year.

I thought of it too, instead of hoping to get back to our old routine just prepare for a new one for a new normal days ahead in presence of the pandemic virus.

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Quote from: Lucius on June 24, 2020, 09:34:03 AM

If people continue to behave like this, then we are definitely threatened by the second wave, although in some countries the first wave has not passed yet.

The general optimism and reduced fear factor would lead to lesser precautions being taken and increased risk a second wave in most places and a longer first wave in others.
In my country we are still battling with rising numbers and the government has opened some sectors while others have been told to prepare to open up. More bank branches as well as markets are opening up with schools looking to open soon.
It appears people would have to learn to live with the virus until we get an effective vaccine, but then some would die from the virus and more efforts should be taken to prevent this.

If we take notes from countries that were more pro active in handling the virus and are experiencing lesser economic crashes, it would seem that effectively fighting the virus would benefit the economy.

hahay

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I am also worried about the same thing because after the easing period is enacted and shifted to the new normal era, at least every day there is always an increase in patients affected by coronavirus and even there are large companies that precisely in this new normal era shut down production so that more and more people are losing their jobs. The government will always try to keep the economy under control, so even though this pandemic continues, with these efforts at least the crisis can be minimized, because with this new normal era some industrial sectors can operate with established health protocols. Hopefully the vaccine for this problem can be found soon

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if this pandemic continues until the end of the year, this is clearly news that is very unwanted by many countries that are directly affected, especially for developing countries and poor countries.

certainly something terrible will happen will become a new epidemic, hunger. developed countries and the IMF must immediately help them to be able to help their citizens who do not work and do not have income to make ends meet.

but there is already renewed news that can be a relief because in some countries there are alternative treatments to cure those who are in critical condition. and is being constantly updated and tried to be used for prevention. I hope this new news can break the pandemic chain until it is not until the end of the year. although maybe economically it will be stable for a long time.

Lucius

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I can agree that the virus will continue to spread after this year, unless a really effective vaccine is found. One such vaccine is in the final stages of testing and should be available as early as this autumn for all EU residents, and then for the rest of the world. But the big question is how effective it will be, and maybe it will just give a false sense of security that can have a counter effect and even greater spread of the virus.

Unfortunately, the easing of measures in the EU has obviously led some to the idea that they can return everything to normal, so they organized a football match in Serbia in front of some 20 000 people (some data say 16 000 - other 25 000), which has already been placed in the category of a new virus bomb.

But to make matters worse, the famous (but not very smart) first tennis player in the world organized an Adria Tour in Serbia, which later moved to Zadar (Croatia), and everything resulted in a big scandal because Novak Djokovic himself and several other tennis players proved to be positive on Covid-19.

If people continue to behave like this, then we are definitely threatened by the second wave, although in some countries the first wave has not passed yet.

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on June 23, 2020, 06:48:41 PM

snip..

I see that the panic has begun to decline (unlike 3 months ago).. the media has begun to no longer preach the corona and that is very good, the economy around the world will begin to return to normal but remain accompanied by fear, unproductive or just at home will not stop the corona from spreading, it only slows the spread. the corona will not cause people in the world to die of hunger and hardship, the world is currently adjusting to the corona and we have to support that by implementing "New Normal"..

Topic: What if this pandemic persists till the end of the year? - page 5. (Read 594 times)