Call it speculation but if I'm dead by then my post would be here still
Topic: What is the maximum price in the next 12-18 mo? - page 2. (Read 1343 times)
Because of the rule 1 block every 10 minutes and the increasing difficulty plus more miners joining the pools and the average electricity cost of mining the estimation of price could only be at around $2800 by the end of 2017.
Call it speculation but if I'm dead by then my post would be here still
Call it speculation but if I'm dead by then my post would be here still
$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.
well, i am not saying that it will happen, if you read my post, just merely discussing the upper bound.
bitcoin is a new asset class. typically, asset classes (stocks, bonds, RE, major currencies) are measured in trillions.
gold is 7.4-7.5 trillions
bitcoin is NOT a company, especially not the one with mostly buggy products.
$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.
2. China would be my primary suspect because they keep trying to bring the price down repeatedly, which is typical when something is being slowly accumulated. If US would learn that China is in fact doing this, they would be silly not to engage in such buying as well.
Agree:
https://medium.com/@davidstrayhorn_33223/the-peoples-bank-of-china-may-be-secretly-accumulating-large-sums-of-bitcoin-be3de9c53f17#.3hcqm5hlj
A related question: assume that some central bank somewhere decides to accumulate bitcoin. What are the relative probabilities that they a) keep it a secret, vs b) announce it to the world? I'm thinking that they'd want to keep it a secret. The implication being that the absence of any news articles about accumulation by the PBOC or the Fed or maybe some smaller central bank somewhere doesn't really tell us much about whether it might actually be happening.
Which leads to the next question: what do you think are the odds that one or more of the many central banks in the world are secretly accumulating bitcoin?
Which leads to the next question: what do you think are the odds that one or more of the many central banks in the world are secretly accumulating bitcoin?
I would call these odds at least even (50%) based on at least two indirect observations:
1. I remember listening to either one of the panels or to one of Tapscott's presentation where he (or someone else) said that accumulation of bitcoin by Central banks is 10 years off, subtract 1-2 years because they already passed and subtract at least 5 years because they will not admit it officially for at least that long=they are either doing it or will be within 1-3 years, realistically. And why not? The whole value is currently tiny and would be just a margin of error on their sheets.
2. China would be my primary suspect because they keep trying to bring the price down repeatedly, which is typical when something is being slowly accumulated. If US would learn that China is in fact doing this, they would be silly not to engage in such buying as well.
3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.
A related question: assume that some central bank somewhere decides to accumulate bitcoin. What are the relative probabilities that they a) keep it a secret, vs b) announce it to the world? I'm thinking that they'd want to keep it a secret. The implication being that the absence of any news articles about accumulation by the PBOC or the Fed or maybe some smaller central bank somewhere doesn't really tell us much about whether it might actually be happening.
Which leads to the next question: what do you think are the odds that one or more of the many central banks in the world are secretly accumulating bitcoin?
My conservative estimate is $2000, with bitcache/mega 2.0 or something huge that can get the average joe involved.
The whales will keep moving in as the economy keeps going down the shitter and gold continues to downperform as a safe haven.
5 figures in the next 5 years are guaranteed tho.
The whales will keep moving in as the economy keeps going down the shitter and gold continues to downperform as a safe haven.
5 figures in the next 5 years are guaranteed tho.
I'll give it a shot:
Most people post conservative numbers of 1200-1500...meh.
I'll try to tackle this here.
In 2013 we started at $13 with maximum at $1165 (Bitstamp, and I will ignore the $1242 on MtGox because it was illiquid)
1165/13=89.615X
We started 2017 at $968.32 (index price), therefore I suggest that 89.615X968.32=$86775 is our upper bound (admittedly, a very unlikely one). What is a more realistic, yet probably maximum price?
I suggest to look at jl2012 exponential graph (BETI) thread.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453
To break local maximum value with respect to the exponential graph few days ago was $19510 and this will be rising as we progress in a 2017, but not sure what would be the number by the end of the year. I would guesstimate, at least $25000-26000 (by Dec 31, 2017)
Therefore, if bitcoin matches what it did before either by performing super-exponentially sometime this year or matching yearly maximum appreciation, the upper boundary would be 25-87K/bitcoin.
That said, I believe that several parameters have to be activated almost simultaneously:
1. ETF has to be approved. 30% chance, in my opinion.
2. Significant indication of a currency crisis somewhere. Probability unknown, maybe 10%. So 1+2 together =3% chance
3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.
So, there is a nonzero (single digits) chance of 25-87K/bitcoin in 12-18 mo.
It would be interesting to watch.
Most people post conservative numbers of 1200-1500...meh.
I'll try to tackle this here.
In 2013 we started at $13 with maximum at $1165 (Bitstamp, and I will ignore the $1242 on MtGox because it was illiquid)
1165/13=89.615X
We started 2017 at $968.32 (index price), therefore I suggest that 89.615X968.32=$86775 is our upper bound (admittedly, a very unlikely one). What is a more realistic, yet probably maximum price?
I suggest to look at jl2012 exponential graph (BETI) thread.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453
To break local maximum value with respect to the exponential graph few days ago was $19510 and this will be rising as we progress in a 2017, but not sure what would be the number by the end of the year. I would guesstimate, at least $25000-26000 (by Dec 31, 2017)
Therefore, if bitcoin matches what it did before either by performing super-exponentially sometime this year or matching yearly maximum appreciation, the upper boundary would be 25-87K/bitcoin.
That said, I believe that several parameters have to be activated almost simultaneously:
1. ETF has to be approved. 30% chance, in my opinion.
2. Significant indication of a currency crisis somewhere. Probability unknown, maybe 10%. So 1+2 together =3% chance
3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.
So, there is a nonzero (single digits) chance of 25-87K/bitcoin in 12-18 mo.
It would be interesting to watch.
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