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Topic: What will happen with Bitcoin if it never scales? - page 15. (Read 11417 times)

legendary
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Nothing negative will happen to Bitcoin if Bitcoin does not scale. Since the price of Bitcoin is only relevant to the amount of people that are purchasing it, the people that are holding Bitcoins will know that they will have to hold onto their Bitcoins even longer because the sending a Bitcoin transaction will be pretty slow.

Probably. If people see it as a long term store of value, rather than digital cash, then it would continue to be used even if it doesn't scale. The difference is that it won't be used for average every day payments, unlike altcoins

Somewhat delayed reply (much has changed since then) but still

If Bitcoin doesn't scale, it is unlikely that it will be used as a store of value. Strictly speaking, it hasn't been used as a store of value at all ever since its emergence. It has been used as a speculative asset, and let's remain honest here, people buying it were looking primarily for earning profits via it not saving their wealth with it. Bitcoin with its insane volatility is simply not suitable for that purpose. In this way, if Bitcoin doesn't scale, its use will shrink and once its price hits a certain threshold on its way down, Bitcoin will switch into an uncontrollable and fierce collapse mode
member
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If bitcoin gains so much value in time, it won't make any sense to use it for small transactions.

On the other hand, If we don't see a development about the problem, the price may not climb at all. It's a problematic situation in every way.

The US $ has gained so much value in time, yet everyone wants to use it for micro transactions.
sr. member
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If the bitcoin doesn't scale anymore maybe the bitcoin does not become famous and maybe we haven't forum now. Maybe bitcoin will more powerful in some day. If bitcoin doesn't scale maybe other money or coin will release and it being famous.

Exactly. At some point, if Bitcoin doesn't scale and fails, people will migrate into other cryptocurrencies which have better features and governance. The key for a cryptocurrency's success is mainstream adoption, and in order to achieve that it would need to scale, otherwise people would switch to another coin which is faster and could handle their daily transactions.

Recently, Bitcoin has shown support for SegWit2x, but since code hasn't been released and fully tested yet, it should only be a matter of time if it becomes successful or not. Also, there is a possibility of Bitcoin splitting into two distinct currencies which may cause chaos in the market if it happens.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next month, but before the move is done, you should secure your BTC investments just in case. Just my thoughts. Grin

No problem with different thought here, but the most important thing to do is wait for actual results of what will be happening next month. Securing your btc is the good choice to have for now and if btc will not scale and worst fails, there could be changes of peoples choices on currency and  bitcoin will not be recognized in different countries; yet it's current system is still developing and doing great as we seen the price of todays updates.
legendary
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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
If the bitcoin doesn't scale anymore maybe the bitcoin does not become famous and maybe we haven't forum now. Maybe bitcoin will more powerful in some day. If bitcoin doesn't scale maybe other money or coin will release and it being famous.

Exactly. At some point, if Bitcoin doesn't scale and fails, people will migrate into other cryptocurrencies which have better features and governance. The key for a cryptocurrency's success is mainstream adoption, and in order to achieve that it would need to scale, otherwise people would switch to another coin which is faster and could handle their daily transactions.

Recently, Bitcoin has shown support for SegWit2x, but since code hasn't been released and fully tested yet, it should only be a matter of time if it becomes successful or not. Also, there is a possibility of Bitcoin splitting into two distinct currencies which may cause chaos in the market if it happens.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next month, but before the move is done, you should secure your BTC investments just in case. Just my thoughts. Grin
sr. member
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If the bitcoin doesn't scale anymore maybe the bitcoin does not become famous and maybe we haven't forum now. Maybe bitcoin will more powerful in some day. If bitcoin doesn't scale maybe other money or coin will release and it being famous.
legendary
Activity: 3220
Merit: 1363
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
Nothing negative will happen to Bitcoin if Bitcoin does not scale. Since the price of Bitcoin is only relevant to the amount of people that are purchasing it, the people that are holding Bitcoins will know that they will have to hold onto their Bitcoins even longer because the sending a Bitcoin transaction will be pretty slow.

Probably. If people see it as a long term store of value, rather than digital cash, then it would continue to be used even if it doesn't scale. The difference is that it won't be used for average every day payments, unlike altcoins.

I believe that the more people migrate to altcoins, the more Bitcoin's network load would be reduced, making it less slower with a diminished amount of unconfirmed transactions.

Perhaps, we will see the day where Bitcoin's market share would be greatly reduced, as a result of other alts rising. Just my thoughts.  Grin
hero member
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ETH price will go up and more people will use it. No reason to use btc right now. 1.66 usd fee to transfer. Yikes. People sell stuff on forums here for 10 and 20 bucks. Paying 1.66 usd is insane fee for nothing. That is 5 to 10percent fee...
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The same thing will happen to bitcoin that happens to other industries that dont improve if it doesn't scale. There are too many others waiting to take its place.

But all of this is moot because it will scale.
hero member
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Nothing negative will happen to Bitcoin if Bitcoin does not scale. Since the price of Bitcoin is only relevant to the amount of people that are purchasing it, the people that are holding Bitcoins will know that they will have to hold onto their Bitcoins even longer because the sending a Bitcoin transaction will be pretty slow.
legendary
Activity: 3220
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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
It is not a question of if the issue is never resolved. It is a matter of how much pain the community has to go through until it gets handled. Will the price plummet? Will it cause bitcoin to be passed by another coin? St some point it will get fixed. Lets hope it is before too much damage is done.

Exactly. One way or the other, miners will recognize that a consensus would be needed for Bitcoin to scale, otherwise their profits would become reduced when people shift to other cryptocurrencies and prices start to decline. I believe that Bitcoin should've had a different consensus mechanism than PoW in the first place, because it may lead to mining centralization where it is happening right now.

Big mining manufacturers like Bitmain, have the most hashrate, making it more difficult for Bitcojn to reach full consensus for SegWit approval. It is said that Bitcoin is China's coin due to the fact that it is the country where most of the hashrate resides.

Only time will tell what Bitcoin's future would be like if it continues as is. Just my opinion.  Smiley
hero member
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Funny you should mention Greece... you do realize that their entire collapse was caused by a combination of criminals who retired from the Greek government, the ECB, and Goldman Sachs? And you do realize that the "Troika" was nothing short of a coup? Not much economics to discuss there - it was outright fraud and theft.

I think it is much more complicated than that, but the essential problem of Greece is that an economy that was used to an inflationary currency and a state that was used to cover its ill-controlled finances with extra loans in an easily obtained own currency (which was at the root of the inflationary currency), suddenly got propelled into a much stricter financial system, with a very low inflation currency (the Euro), where loans weren't tempered by inflation "on command".   In fact, Greece was simply economically not ready to join the Euro zone, but this was done for essentially geopolitical reasons.  Goldman Sachs accepted the mission to falsify the Greek books so that the political goal could be met.

In the beginning, the state and the economy continued to live like before, but with a much stronger currency, which lead them to believe in an apparent sudden wealth.   Moreover, the Greek state borrowing money like crazy, was the feast of German banks !  Everything seemed to go for the best.  Do you know that Greece, at a certain point, was the highest importer of Porsche sports cars per capita ?  They spend themselves to ruins with the Olympic Games in 2004.

However, when pay day came, things became more difficult.  The Greek state and the Greek economy were used to push debts away with inflation - this was not possible any more with the Euro.   Their way of handling money was simply adapted to a highly inflationary currency, and their fast integration into a strong currency system made them live a lot above their means for a while, and put them into debt beyond what was reasonable.

Put the international banking crisis on top of that, and the story is complete.

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  Or maybe you just listened to the mainstream account and stroked your beard? How about Cyprus? Did you know that 50% of private citizen's bank deposits were simply stolen by the government to pay private bond holders (Goldman again, I believe)?

I agree, but this could have been solved in exactly the same way without doing that: putting a tax of 50% on all possession.

I'm always amazed at how people seem to think that the financial system is "stealing" them, while they pay 10 times more taxes than what they lose in the financial system.   If inflation is a form of theft, then it is of the order of 2%.  Nobody pays 2% of taxes.  I pay around 60% or so if I count everything (social security, income tax, VAT, propriety tax, local tax....).  I couldn't care less about those 2% or so.

hero member
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Straw man argument. I'm not replacing economic theory with "gobbledegook", I'm simply pointing out to you that mainstream theory just supports the current system, which is neither stable, normal, or rational (surely you don't you believe that, right?).

I simply think that economist's understanding of things like money improved over the years.  A bit like medical knowledge improved over the years, and that medical theories from beginning the 20th century are maybe less accurate than those of end of the 20th century.

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Imagine what the "economists" said about the spending and lending of the king and his court... I'm sure it was favorable. Many of these so-called scientists are just rationalizing the current system. Friedman is precisely such an ass-licker - do you know that he advocated "shock therapy" for people starving in third-world countries?

This is what I count under "conspiracy": that bogus scientists are just ass-licking power, and that all academics in the whole world nicely repeat that, and even though they could perfectly understand why it is wrong, they conspire in continuing to tell bullshit for their master's sake.

My simple point was that the Austrian vision, namely that a collectible is perfect money, has serious problems of stability.  I don't even think the Austrians deny this.  What the Austrians do, is to prefer this monetary stability over having central power that regulates its value, because they consider this regulatory aspect as a source of corruption.   They are right of course that it is a source of corruption.  But that doesn't mean that collectibles are good money: they simply revert to collectibles because they hate so much central control, that they couldn't think of anything else.  

However, people have been thinking more about the ideal functions of money, what money should do and not do, if it were to accomplish its function better, and most probably Nash's definition comes closest to what ideal money's behaviour is.  The reason is that if money behaves differently, it has undesirable consequences, essentially by replacing value in a non-ideal allocative way.  Seigniorage is such an example.  There is no "economic merit" in acquiring value from others, simply because one is printing money, or simply because one is sitting on a stash of money.  This doesn't allocate means in any efficient way, and doesn't solve economic problems for anybody.  

Money as an economic lubricant works best when it has a stable value on which one can count, that's essentially the conclusion of economists.  However, it is not because an abstract model of money is like that, that one knows how to make an asset that works like this.  The Austrians couldn't think of anything else but a collectible, but a collectible doesn't behave, by far, as ideal money, simply because it is an inelastic offer that confronts a variable demand.

If one could make a monetary system that has stable value, that would always be better money than a collectible.  Fiat money tries to implement that.  The problem with fiat money is when the regulator of the money supply also has political goals, and if one of these goals is to give seigniorage to the state, the compromise is to make a slightly inflationary money: that gives enough seigniorage to the political caste, while at the same time providing an asset to the market that approaches ideal money: its value is not entirely stable, but is predictable.
 
What crypto currrencies pretend to do, it to take the corruption of central control out of the system.  However, bitcoin and most alt coins revert back to Austrian visions of collectibles, which are not stable.  What crypto currencies should have done, was to take more advanced visions of money from modern economy, and implement that in a non-centrally controlled way.  I've indicated a way to do that.

It is ironic that bitcoin, which wants to "fight" the "corruption" of central control (which comes down essentially to seigniorage, that is, giving loans to the state), has itself a HUGE seigniorage effect because of its instability.  The seigniorage is not "during its life time" but "at its beginning", and is far worse than any central bank has ever done.  If ever bitcoin achieves its goal of "replacing fiat", it will have made a few early adopters more rich due to early-printer seigniorage than the entire US government over many years !

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If you've read Austrian economists or any libertarian arguments you should know that there are many theories that aren't in concert with your line of thinking.

I know rather well Austrian economy, I'm actually quite favourable to many of their arguments.  However, it is an OLD school.  Understanding has evolved since. On the monetary issues, they only had embrionic understanding, and economists evolved since then.   Austrian's vision on how money came about is simply wrong, and historically invalidated.  Nowhere, ever, a rare commodity evolved into a currency all by itself and market forces.  I know very well Rothbard's work, and it is appreciable as a critique of central control, but it is not a good theory of money.  It is a theory of how we could do without central banks, and they could only think of collectibles.
You should also read David Graebers' Debt, the first 5000 years.  It has a much better historical account of money than the Austrians.
In any case, bitcoin solved the issue of central control, but put in the wrong issuing function, to turn it into a rare collectible, with huge initial seigniorage, instead of turning it into a stable currency without seigniorage, even though all the technical elements were on the table.  As such, it does behave as a rare collectible, and not as a stable currency, because that's how it was designed.

The problem with many of these theories is that they are conspirational.  I also consider the state as the enemy of the people, but not as a conspiracy.  The state is simply a powerful entity, made of humans, and as all humans are enemies of other humans, of course the state is a powerful enemy.  There's nothing special about that.  However, the "new elite" that would emerge if ever bitcoin became world currency, that is, the profiteers of early adoption, are most probably just as bad as current states are.  Enemies are there were collectivity and community spirit is important.  Whether that's a state, a corporation, a wealthy group of people or just a large collection of friends doesn't matter.   The state is no exception to that.  But the state has nothing special apart from being the current winner of the law of the strongest.  Take it away, and another one will win the law of the strongest.   There's nothing special about that: we are social animals, which means that we want to dominate, or be dominated, we want to abuse, or be abused, we want to extort, or be extorted.  It is just our nature.  No conspiracy.  We're just like that.
As such, bitcoin, as it is designed, is only a palace revolution.  It replaces the powerful and corrupt (that is, humans) by other powerful and corrupt.  It is not a design of ideal money at all.

hero member
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I'm not familiar enough with the terminology and schools of thought to debate you on this. All I know is that you're backing your arguments with roughly conventional 21st century capitalist economic theory. I don't necessarily refute this theory, but I regard it with a healthy dose of skepticism, and I believe it's not necessarily applicable when analyzing bitcoin. So debates over bitcoin money supply, deflation/inflation, etc. are not necessarily covered by this theory.

Well, call me conservative, but I'm not buying the idea that whole international pans of economists are in a kind of conspiracy or group think erroneously putting aside a former correct theory of money to replace it with gobbledegook.  Economy is a complex science, because it combines different fields and sociological aspects, but I don't think that world-wide scolars are deluded to the point of defending totally erroneous views on things.  Our state of knowledge advances of course, and what was once thought to be more or less right, turns out to be more subtle than imagined, but I won't just say that most of late 20th century monetary theory is bogus, and that some ideas from the beginning of the century are "obviously" closer to the truth.  In fact, the "classical" story of how money came to be (namely, a generally used commodity that was more and more used as an intermediate good of exchange) is historically proven *entirely wrong*.  Nowhere, ever, a generally used commodity became money.  This is nevertheless on what older theories, such as sound money doctrine, are based on.

Straw man argument. I'm not replacing economic theory with "gobbledegook", I'm simply pointing out to you that mainstream theory just supports the current system, which is neither stable, normal, or rational (surely you don't you believe that, right?). Imagine what the "economists" said about the spending and lending of the king and his court... I'm sure it was favorable. Many of these so-called scientists are just rationalizing the current system. Friedman is precisely such an ass-licker - do you know that he advocated "shock therapy" for people starving in third-world countries? If you've read Austrian economists or any libertarian arguments you should know that there are many theories that aren't in concert with your line of thinking.


Well, I must disagree with you here: velocity is precisely what is interesting about the last 20 years of monetary, banking, and economic policy and law. The establishment is moving more and more toward systems which CAN control velocity and DO. Read up on the cashless society. The current vast majority of financial transactions use electronic fund transfers which may be FROZEN at any point. People don't even realize how quickly all of their bank deposits could evaporate or move into an inaccessible state.

Well, that's a very radical way of "regulating velocity".  You can hardly call that a monetary policy.  It is an emergency (panic) decision to do so, to try to block a run-away condition.  Things like what happened in Greece at a certain point, was just a measure to avoid Greek banks which were essentially bankrupt, to collapse, the time needed to bring the Greek government back to reason, or to have it decide to step out, so as not to have the whole of Europe pay for Greeks' jokes.

Funny you should mention Greece... you do realize that their entire collapse was caused by a combination of criminals who retired from the Greek government, the ECB, and Goldman Sachs? And you do realize that the "Troika" was nothing short of a coup? Not much economics to discuss there - it was outright fraud and theft.  Or maybe you just listened to the mainstream account and stroked your beard? How about Cyprus? Did you know that 50% of private citizen's bank deposits were simply stolen by the government to pay private bond holders (Goldman again, I believe)? This is precisely why the global system is highly unstable - confidence is likely at all-time lows, and the level of fraud is unprecedented.  When the "economic laws" are in the elites' favor, they invoke theory, when they're not, they quietly break all the rules and print money or just steal it.

The term "radical" is relative in this context.

My point about velocity is that the central banks are able to print trillions because of the very fact that they can and will cut velocity when needed. Remember daily withdrawal limits on bank accounts? Notice how long it takes an international wire to process, and how often they are frozen? Inflation would be massive if velocity couldn't be tightly controlled when needed.

Bitcoin is a whole different animal. Funny that Blockstream attempts to control the velocity of bitcoin in their own way...

full member
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It is not a question of if the issue is never resolved. It is a matter of how much pain the community has to go through until it gets handled. Will the price plummet? Will it cause bitcoin to be passed by another coin? St some point it will get fixed. Lets hope it is before too much damage is done.
legendary
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For me it's clear Bitcoin is no longer an cryptocurrency that can bring our requirements for the daily life. it's true that many altcoins can replace Bitcoin but to be clear we all are waiting for Bitcoin to reach its previous height again. I believed that solving only the transaction problem is not our exact solution we should think about future about how the block size is going to fulfill and how all the other blocks are going to mine because day by day the Bitcoin mining goes on the network will face another stress.
legendary
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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
It is possible other cryptocurrencies might want to take the lead. The thing is the fact that bitcoin got accepted today massively is as a result of the huge increase in value over time. Personally, I believe storing it for a long time would definitely make me a bigger boy later. A time will definitely come when we will stop seeing bitcoin as an asset instead of a means of transaction.
Nevertheless, the ease of transaction too is something but if another crypto currency decides to offer something better, people may want to give it a chance but I don't think that will stop bitcoin from still operating.

Yeah. Bitcoin has been established as a solid cryptocurrency for several years now, and it would make it extremely difficult for another cryptocurrency to take the lead. Due to Bitcoin's value proposition such as decentralization, deflation, and the highest network hashrate among other cryptocurrencies, it will stay as the top crypto for years to come.

However, that may be subject to change, if Bitcoin doesn't reach a resolution for its scalability controversy soon. It is up to this date, where Bitcoin hasn't increased in transaction capacity, while other altcoins have successfully done so. Dash for example, has managed to reach consensus among its community for an increase in block size up to 2mb. Even BitBean has higher transaction capacity than most altcoins nowadays with a block size of 20mb.

So the more transaction get unconfirmed in the Bitcoin network, the more it would be closer towards becoming less used by everyday people as they would want a cryptocurrency that it is highly efficient in processing transactions. They would shift to another cryptocurrency that could deliver high speeds in transaction confirmation time, and well as low fees (unlike Bitcoin which continues to increase in fees). Just my thoughts.  Grin
hero member
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I'm not familiar enough with the terminology and schools of thought to debate you on this. All I know is that you're backing your arguments with roughly conventional 21st century capitalist economic theory. I don't necessarily refute this theory, but I regard it with a healthy dose of skepticism, and I believe it's not necessarily applicable when analyzing bitcoin. So debates over bitcoin money supply, deflation/inflation, etc. are not necessarily covered by this theory.

Well, call me conservative, but I'm not buying the idea that whole international pans of economists are in a kind of conspiracy or group think erroneously putting aside a former correct theory of money to replace it with gobbledegook.  Economy is a complex science, because it combines different fields and sociological aspects, but I don't think that world-wide scolars are deluded to the point of defending totally erroneous views on things.  Our state of knowledge advances of course, and what was once thought to be more or less right, turns out to be more subtle than imagined, but I won't just say that most of late 20th century monetary theory is bogus, and that some ideas from the beginning of the century are "obviously" closer to the truth.  In fact, the "classical" story of how money came to be (namely, a generally used commodity that was more and more used as an intermediate good of exchange) is historically proven *entirely wrong*.  Nowhere, ever, a generally used commodity became money.  This is nevertheless on what older theories, such as sound money doctrine, are based on.

And the "this time it is different" story, I don't buy either.  Bitcoin is a monetary asset, just like any other monetary asset, that is, not of direct utility, but only of value to be exchanged for something of value.  It doesn't fall outside of the scope of any theory regarding monetary assets, not more than most other things of which the direct utility is small or non existent compared to its exchange value.  What sets bitcoin apart is its form.  Not its nature.

There is not much difference in principle between private money (as it has existed often in the 19th century) and bitcoin.  The issuers of the private money are the miner pools ; for the moment they stick to a pre-determined emission curve (the famous 21 million coins) - in principle they could change that any moment.  And there is a public auditing system of their ledger.  So the concept is quite well known ; the form is new.

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Well, I must disagree with you here: velocity is precisely what is interesting about the last 20 years of monetary, banking, and economic policy and law. The establishment is moving more and more toward systems which CAN control velocity and DO. Read up on the cashless society. The current vast majority of financial transactions use electronic fund transfers which may be FROZEN at any point. People don't even realize how quickly all of their bank deposits could evaporate or move into an inaccessible state.

Well, that's a very radical way of "regulating velocity".  You can hardly call that a monetary policy.  It is an emergency (panic) decision to do so, to try to block a run-away condition.  Things like what happened in Greece at a certain point, was just a measure to avoid Greek banks which were essentially bankrupt, to collapse, the time needed to bring the Greek government back to reason, or to have it decide to step out, so as not to have the whole of Europe pay for Greeks' jokes.

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Any future "Electronic bank runs" will end in seconds rather than days.

In the modern fiat system, a bank run doesn't exist any more, because there's no fractional reserve banking any more.  Banks are 1-1 covered in principle by non-monetary assets, which they can use to obtain as much central bank money as they want - the only thing is that it costs them interest, and hence they only keep a small reserve handy ; but normally banks can now obtain as much central bank money as their assets allow them.   It is because, exactly, this was locked for the Greek banks, that they had to restrict money movements at a certain point.  But a healthy bank cannot undergo a bank run any more in the modern system, because it is fully covered.

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So of course it's possible to control velocity - that's precisely what the USA Fed (for example) has been tasked with (control of supply and velocity meets their inflation targets)! They influence velocity by setting interest rates and printing more free money for banks.

Yes, but they don't control velocity directly.  By setting interest rates, they influence the desire to exchange non-monetary assets for new money, so essentially, indirectly the monetary mass, because they change the incentive for people to want to borrow (= exchanging non-monetary assets for freshly invented money) and of course, this also has an indirect effect on velocity.

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Cryptos represent a new challenge to this regime. Velocity is really only bounded by network capacity, and it's not decreasing at all, in fact it's increasing. This is not any deflationary spiral.

In fact, it is difficult to talk about velocity for a speculative asset, because it doesn't buy goods and services, but it exchanges in and out with other monetary assets, so there is no "Q" that has any meaning.  If I exchange 1 bitcoin once a day for fiat, and back to bitcoin, my contribution to Q is 2 x $1700, and my contribution to the number of coins exchanged is 2 (two trades).   If I exchange this coin 100 times a day, my contribution to the number of coins (velocity) is 200, but my contribution to Q is also 200 x $1700.  So this doesn't modify anything.  Fisher's formula had as an idea that Q was some genuine "irreversible" acquisition of goods and services.  It is still mathematically valid for exchanges, but as Q augments with V, it doesn't change anything.

The deflationary spiral resides rather in the fact that people hoard (even if they quickly trade in and out) coins for the rise of its value, and not because they use it as an intermediate between earning and spending value.  In other words, the deflationary spiral is the monetary equivalent of the speculative bubble run-away but seen from the other side.

Bitcoin's price is not pushed upward by the demand for bitcoin to be used as a currency.  It is mainly pushed by the desire to hold bitcoin when it rises, with the idea to make benefit over it, by "buying low and selling high".  Not by earning for goods and services (say, "salary") and by spending it on goods and services (say, buying stuff).  This happens, I don't deny this, but it is not the demand for salary that pushes the price of bitcoin.  It is the hope for higher prices that makes one buy bitcoins, not the need to use it as a currency. 
If there had been an upper cap on the value of a coin, then this speculative nature wouldn't be there, and bitcoin would *essentially* be used as a currency, because there's no hope for "rise".  Yes, there is volatility, and normal speculation as a side effect, but it wouldn't make its market cap.

sr. member
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bitcoin will never scale. no hard fork will happen and the fees will get higher and higher only the rich can use it. small users will go to litecoin and that is why there is a craze for LTC nowadays
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The issue will be solved its just a matter of if it will take a catastrophe to make it happen and what the aftermath will be.
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I am enjoying this thread even if we are a little off-topic. Apologies to OP.

Sounds like a fair summary of current mainstream neo-Keynesian monetary policy. I just wanted to point out to you that this system is by no means normal, stable, or rational, and it has no successful historical precedent. It's just been "the system" for the past 40+ years in G8 countries.

You can hardly think of Friedman as a neo-Keynesian.

I'm not familiar enough with the terminology and schools of thought to debate you on this. All I know is that you're backing your arguments with roughly conventional 21st century capitalist economic theory. I don't necessarily refute this theory, but I regard it with a healthy dose of skepticism, and I believe it's not necessarily applicable when analyzing bitcoin. So debates over bitcoin money supply, deflation/inflation, etc. are not necessarily covered by this theory.

Aren't you forgetting that inflation also arises from increased monetary velocity, not just increased supply? So the increased nominal exchange value is not necessarily "catastrophic deflation" at all.


That is true, but velocity is something that is hard to control, is a function of people's habits, mood and so on, and is especially a function of the perception of whether an asset is speculative or not.  When you look at monetary velocity, it is not something that has uniform behaviour, and remains grossly within some boundaries.  You cannot "regulate" velocity.  You cannot make people spend faster or hoard more.  In fact, velocity is at the origin of two instabilities: the deflationary spiral, and hyper inflation.   The deflationary spiral happens when people speculate on the strongly rising value of a monetary asset: they hoard it more and more, lowering as such, the velocity, and hence increasing even more the market value of those few coins on the market, confirming the speculation of rise.  This is bitcoin's behaviour.  
On the other hand, hyper inflation is when people speculate on a strongly falling value of a monetary asset: they try to get rid of it as quickly as possible, increasing as such the velocity to very high values, and hence, decreasing even more the market value of the mass of coins chasing goods in the market, confirming the speculation of drop.  This is what has happened to some famous hyper inflations like the Reichsmark.

The knowledge of a stabilizing mechanism avoids both instabilities, but one doesn't have any handle on people's spending decisions which determine velocity ; as such, the only thing one has a handle on, is the coin emission.


Well, I must disagree with you here: velocity is precisely what is interesting about the last 20 years of monetary, banking, and economic policy and law. The establishment is moving more and more toward systems which CAN control velocity and DO. Read up on the cashless society. The current vast majority of financial transactions use electronic fund transfers which may be FROZEN at any point. People don't even realize how quickly all of their bank deposits could evaporate or move into an inaccessible state. Any future "Electronic bank runs" will end in seconds rather than days. AML laws are becoming so tight that the cash economy is hugely curtailed and has high overhead. If you talk to an economist about controlling monetary velocity, they will even tell you that it's necessary in this age of rampant money-printing to prevent hyperinflation!

So of course it's possible to control velocity - that's precisely what the USA Fed (for example) has been tasked with (control of supply and velocity meets their inflation targets)! They influence velocity by setting interest rates and printing more free money for banks.

Cryptos represent a new challenge to this regime. Velocity is really only bounded by network capacity, and it's not decreasing at all, in fact it's increasing. This is not any deflationary spiral. Furthermore, the coin supply is increasing every day. Controlling the global movement of cryptos is already creating headaches for the financial elite. Imagine if cryptos grow 100-fold in the next ten years - they could fuel a vast Forex arbitrage market, even undermine the central banks' control of exchange rates. Many outcomes are possible.


But then it is not in a state to become a currency !  If the argument against why it is not behaving like a currency, is: "because it is not a currency yet", then that's not very convincing as an argument of why it is a good currency, no ?  In fact, the deflationary spiral is even worse for a non-essential asset, because in as much as the deflationary spiral of the principal currency is tempered because after all, you HAVE TO BUY FOOD, here, nothing stops one from hoarding all of bitcoin, because you don't have to spend it to get food.

Well I guess the conventional view of bitcoin is that it's an asset and a currency, right?

Furthermore, there is an increasing number of goods and services that can ONLY be purchased using bitcoin.

Apart from ransomware and dark markets, I wonder what ?
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Yes, these are the primary uses for bitcoin as a currency right now, but the utility of bitcoin applies to global commerce as a whole. With 3 countries outright legalizing bitcoin, I suspect the number available goods and services to skyrocket.


Pure speculation is.  And I think it has a monstrously bright future in that.

Pure speculation sounds like an oxymoron to me... and it's not why I'm here. But the space could degenerate to only speculation. And I think that would be the logical conclusion of the experiment...
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