Topic: What will the price of BTC be when 22M people want 1 BTC each? - page 2. (Read 4304 times)
October 25, 2013, 05:03:04 AM
316,000 and rapidly rising by 1-2k a day at coinbase
October 25, 2013, 01:25:45 AM
How many users do we currently have?
i really really wish we knew.
no way to be sure.
best guess is to look at downloaded and active clients. unless anyone has better ideas?
Maybe we already have 22M users.
October 25, 2013, 01:24:19 AM
How many users do we currently have?
best guess is to look at downloaded and active clients. unless anyone has better ideas?How much is this number?
In the other thread I referred to Silvervault customer data. There I have percentages of people who have had a position but sold out, and also people who have registered but never bought anything. Silvervault was opened 1.7.2010, which is eeriely similar to MtGox... Applying these percentages to the number of downloaded clients would be a fair estimate.
October 24, 2013, 11:40:36 PM
How many users do we currently have?
October 24, 2013, 09:36:22 AM
What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?
How far are we from this date?
Hmm...
How far are we from this date?
Hmm...
That will never happen.
I will always want more than 1 Bitcoin
October 24, 2013, 09:14:21 AM
Wealth distibution in a system tends to look like a Pareto distribution where a smaller portion of folks own a large amount of the resourcel, and an even smaller function of those individuals own the majority of that resource set. For example, 20% of people might control 80% of the wealth, and 20% of those folks (4% of the population) control 80% of that wealth (64%) total, and so forth.
There's no reason to believe bitcoin won't be similarly distibuted, it's just a matter of whether it's 80/20, 90/10, 70/30, etc. It's already that way in Bitcoin. Satoshi controls about 1 million coins, there's a few individuals/groups that have several 100K of coins, then a slightly larger group that is over 10K (Vladimir club), and so on.
There's no reason to believe bitcoin won't be similarly distibuted, it's just a matter of whether it's 80/20, 90/10, 70/30, etc. It's already that way in Bitcoin. Satoshi controls about 1 million coins, there's a few individuals/groups that have several 100K of coins, then a slightly larger group that is over 10K (Vladimir club), and so on.
October 24, 2013, 08:14:43 AM
You're looking at it one way only, you may consider the other side as well.
How many USD/EUR/CNY those 22M want to put in BTC?
How many USD/EUR/CNY those 22M want to put in BTC?
October 24, 2013, 07:55:11 AM
What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?
How far are we from this date?
Hmm...
How far are we from this date?
Hmm...
Oh there is plenty of coin for all people. Because there is also Litecoin, Megacoin, Novacoin, Feathercoin, etc.
October 24, 2013, 06:28:44 AM
I understand the question, and it does not have an easy answer.
This thread is imho a quality read, concerning the distribution of bitcoins.
A large percent of the most active forum members have very high bitcoin balances and no intention to sell them. This must be taken into account when considering the situation that 20 million people want in. A really large slice of the cake is taken by the big holders.
It is mathematically improbable, not only to have more than 21 million holders of BTC1, but actually to have even 2 million such holders! To have more than 5 million is flat out impossible if free market remains and the large holders are not coerced out of their holdings.
Goat, I know the proof of my findings is not yet there in an unrefutable form, but the fact remains.
What comes to the topic, an easy estimate is ofter better than a difficult one (extrapolate):
year end - users - price
2009 - 20
2010 - 200 - 0.5
2011 - 2000
2012 - 20k
2013 - 200k - 500
2014 - 2M
2015 - 20M - 50k.
It is not inconceivable that when 22 million people have some bitcoins, one goes for $50k.
This thread is imho a quality read, concerning the distribution of bitcoins.
A large percent of the most active forum members have very high bitcoin balances and no intention to sell them. This must be taken into account when considering the situation that 20 million people want in. A really large slice of the cake is taken by the big holders.
It is mathematically improbable, not only to have more than 21 million holders of BTC1, but actually to have even 2 million such holders! To have more than 5 million is flat out impossible if free market remains and the large holders are not coerced out of their holdings.
Goat, I know the proof of my findings is not yet there in an unrefutable form, but the fact remains.
What comes to the topic, an easy estimate is ofter better than a difficult one (extrapolate):
year end - users - price
2009 - 20
2010 - 200 - 0.5
2011 - 2000
2012 - 20k
2013 - 200k - 500
2014 - 2M
2015 - 20M - 50k.
It is not inconceivable that when 22 million people have some bitcoins, one goes for $50k.
October 23, 2013, 10:02:05 PM
I don't think you can predict this one easily or with any equation..
if that 21 milion people were gonna buy 1 bitcoin each today the price would rise with every next bitcoin bought.. i think the price depends on present buy and sell orders, the momentary demand and supply and also the price history is important indicator, cause people get suggested by it. (If the average price is 100$ and somebody just bought all the bitcoins up to 300$ one would you sell one of yours for 100$ knowing how much they just got sold for minute ago?
if that 21 milion people were gonna buy 1 bitcoin each today the price would rise with every next bitcoin bought.. i think the price depends on present buy and sell orders, the momentary demand and supply and also the price history is important indicator, cause people get suggested by it. (If the average price is 100$ and somebody just bought all the bitcoins up to 300$ one would you sell one of yours for 100$ knowing how much they just got sold for minute ago?
October 23, 2013, 09:54:58 PM
I was a bit depressed we had not gotten in "early" when the price was a buck or so each.
I feel like a damned idiot for worrying about fifty cent price changes when btc was at $10. It could drop $50 tomorrow and it wouldn't phase me now.
October 23, 2013, 09:45:17 PM
About $1,136,363 = 1 BTC @ 7000M
About $3,741 = 1 BTC @ 22M
Current exposure is at about 700k people
About $3,741 = 1 BTC @ 22M
Current exposure is at about 700k people
October 23, 2013, 09:43:02 PM
What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?
No idea. But at that point, having 100,000,000 satoshis will be considered a status symbol.
"Wow! You have a WHOLE bitcoin?"
"Yeah, but I'm not gonna spend any of it because I like seeing 1.00000000 in my wallet."
It is hard to believe now, isn't it? But it was a comment almost like this that my husband made that made me realize I wanted to invest. I was a bit depressed we had not gotten in "early" when the price was a buck or so each. But those days there was not much proof it was going to take off. Now it is almost less of a gamble, even at $200, that this is going to be something huge! One BTC could be worth quite a bit for sure.
October 23, 2013, 09:35:38 PM
What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?
No idea. But at that point, having 100,000,000 satoshis will be considered a status symbol.
"Wow! You have a WHOLE bitcoin?"
"Yeah, but I'm not gonna spend any of it because I like seeing 1.00000000 in my wallet."
October 23, 2013, 09:31:28 PM
21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
No, that's ridiculous.
Forgot to use your alt acct?
LOL
Busted!
October 23, 2013, 09:30:55 PM
22m people already want 1 BTC each. Just like 10,000 people on this forum want 2,200 bitcoins each. The only question is how much they want it.
Exactly. It's a unit of value after all. October 23, 2013, 09:29:23 PM
there will only be 21M btc. and lost / seized btc need to be taken into account.
21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
No, that's ridiculous.
Forgot to use your alt acct?
LOL
or 12 million people
21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
Right?
Right!!
Right??
Pretty obvious to me.
Right?
No, that's ridiculous.
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