Pages:
Author

Topic: When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations? (Read 603 times)

legendary
Activity: 3500
Merit: 6320
Crypto Swap Exchange
And just when you thought everything is fine..
https://mempool.space/address/bc1quhruqrghgcca950rvhtrg7cpd7u8k6svpzgzmrjy8xyukacl5lkq0r8l2d

Bitfinex comes and tries to consolidate its dust with 20 blocks worth of tx paying even 50-60sat/b, because obviously, their script is detecting their won transactions in the mempool so they were trying to compete with their own so from 2sat/b in just a few hours we're at 40. When you think that there are still a ton of other exchanges waiting for this then probably it will take more than three weekends for everything to normalize.

The most recent difficulty adjustment was a few days ago but less transactions volume has led to declining hashrate and as a result the average block time has gone up slightly so it might still take a while to fully clear the mempool.

The number of transactions in the mempool has no effect on the hash rate and the block time pace is almost normal:

Quote
Latest Block:   810879  (28 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6911%  (448 / 444.93 expected, 3.07 ahead)





Makes you wonder if it was supposed to be be 5 - 6 sats /vb and someone munged it.
The mempool was at spot that those TX would have slowly cleared over a bit of time.

I know I have said it before but never think it's people doing something wrong deliberately when incompetence is just as likely.

As we see from the hacks and other issues just about all the exchanges out there have crap programming.
This could just be another case of that.

-Dave
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
And just when you thought everything is fine..
https://mempool.space/address/bc1quhruqrghgcca950rvhtrg7cpd7u8k6svpzgzmrjy8xyukacl5lkq0r8l2d

Bitfinex comes and tries to consolidate its dust with 20 blocks worth of tx paying even 50-60sat/b, because obviously, their script is detecting their won transactions in the mempool so they were trying to compete with their own so from 2sat/b in just a few hours we're at 40. When you think that there are still a ton of other exchanges waiting for this then probably it will take more than three weekends for everything to normalize.

The most recent difficulty adjustment was a few days ago but less transactions volume has led to declining hashrate and as a result the average block time has gone up slightly so it might still take a while to fully clear the mempool.

The number of transactions in the mempool has no effect on the hash rate and the block time pace is almost normal:

Quote
Latest Block:   810879  (28 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6911%  (448 / 444.93 expected, 3.07 ahead)



sr. member
Activity: 1680
Merit: 379
Top Crypto Casino
I've had a pending 1 sat/vByte transaction for several months. After the Ordinals and BRC-20 spam started clearing I was hoping it would receive confirmation over the weekend. The most recent difficulty adjustment was a few days ago but less transactions volume has led to declining hashrate and as a result the average block time has gone up slightly so it might still take a while to fully clear the mempool.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1230
Privacy Servers. Since 2009.
As many of you are aware, the mempool is full and overflowing and has been like that for a long, long period, when it comes to Bitcoin time. The last time it went near zero was back in April, and from then we haven't seen any sign of it finally going back to  "normal" times of cheap tx and gaps in which you can consolidate your dust.


Now betting on more acceptance, another bull run, are we going to see an empty mempool again or is this a thing of the past?

I would love to see your opinions but also, more importantly, your reasoning for this!
With enough tx for 3 days worth in the mempool, with hashrate going down because of decreasing revenue so fewer blocks each period which add to this, and not even a tiny sign of ordinal fomo dying down, my bet is on the next year or the holiday season at the end of the year.

I didn't vote because I don't know whether it will happen in 3 days or 3 months or 3 years. I just know that it will happen when Ordinals, NFT or whatever else they're called will die out. As soon as it will happen, we will get back to normal mempool of legitimate transactions and low fees.  Cool
hero member
Activity: 3220
Merit: 636
DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook
We're breathing fresh air once again. It seems the mempool is now free of dead monkeys, or perhaps only a few are left. I don't know if it hit 1 sat/vB for high priority transactions ever since the ordinals took over the mempool, but yesterday it went as low as 2 sat/vB. Right now, it's still low at 4 sat/vB.
I missed that.

Was it a high priority when it's got down to 2 sats/vB and 4 sats/vB? High priority is at 30 sats/vB and low is at 11 sats/vB.

Yeah, those were the fees for high priority transactions. I didn't take a screenshot when I checked the mempool. But I think OP has posted some pics. The plunging fees and draining mempool were also the talk even outside this forum. Anyway, you can check on the chart below how things were much lower yesterday and the other day. But changes were fast. Of course, that's expected. Many were waiting for the fee to go down and when it did they quickly took advantage of it. That's always the cycle.

~img~

Anyway, below is the screenshot of the situation right now. It has gone down again. It's always best to check the mempool first before broadcasting transactions to take advantage of the transaction fee fluctuations.

~img~
Ahh, that was just a quick clean up and then went up again. As I have posted that response yesterday, it was higher than this time so there's an improvement that we're seeing from the mempool and fees have gotten lower and hopefully will continue to do so.

Perhaps. I hope it wasn't because we already resigned to the thought that the monkeys have already taken over the network.
I guess that changes now because we're starting to see that fees changed positively and crossing fingers that these spams/ordinals will just be there and won't impact anymore the fees.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1860
We're breathing fresh air once again. It seems the mempool is now free of dead monkeys, or perhaps only a few are left. I don't know if it hit 1 sat/vB for high priority transactions ever since the ordinals took over the mempool, but yesterday it went as low as 2 sat/vB. Right now, it's still low at 4 sat/vB.
I missed that.

Was it a high priority when it's got down to 2 sats/vB and 4 sats/vB? High priority is at 30 sats/vB and low is at 11 sats/vB.

Yeah, those were the fees for high priority transactions. I didn't take a screenshot when I checked the mempool. But I think OP has posted some pics. The plunging fees and draining mempool were also the talk even outside this forum. Anyway, you can check on the chart below how things were much lower yesterday and the other day. But changes were fast. Of course, that's expected. Many were waiting for the fee to go down and when it did they quickly took advantage of it. That's always the cycle.



Anyway, below is the screenshot of the situation right now. It has gone down again. It's always best to check the mempool first before broadcasting transactions to take advantage of the transaction fee fluctuations.



There wasn't much who participated in the poll but it's funny how the majority thought this will not subside ever again. Many also thought this will only subside next year. Little did they know it would only take even less than a month for it to clear out. Perhaps even OP wasn't expecting this since the shortest option in the poll was 1 month.

Just like any hype, those monkeys couldn't live long.
It probably because we're getting used to the higher fees and that's why most of us likely did just let it go and thought that it will take any longer.

Perhaps. I hope it wasn't because we already resigned to the thought that the monkeys have already taken over the network.
hero member
Activity: 3220
Merit: 636
DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook
We're breathing fresh air once again. It seems the mempool is now free of dead monkeys, or perhaps only a few are left. I don't know if it hit 1 sat/vB for high priority transactions ever since the ordinals took over the mempool, but yesterday it went as low as 2 sat/vB. Right now, it's still low at 4 sat/vB.
I missed that.

Was it a high priority when it's got down to 2 sats/vB and 4 sats/vB? High priority is at 30 sats/vB and low is at 11 sats/vB.

There wasn't much who participated in the poll but it's funny how the majority thought this will not subside ever again. Many also thought this will only subside next year. Little did they know it would only take even less than a month for it to clear out. Perhaps even OP wasn't expecting this since the shortest option in the poll was 1 month.

Just like any hype, those monkeys couldn't live long.
It probably because we're getting used to the higher fees and that's why most of us likely did just let it go and thought that it will take any longer.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
funny part is doomad  and is dozen soldiers promote crap that has less userbase then things not even advertised.
funny part is he thinks because he has 12 people that kiss his ass that must mean everyone prefers his minset..
funny part is doomad and chums try to kiss a certain dev/mods ass and hope to earn merits as pats on the back for ass kissing
its funny because i criticise that same dev/mod and i dont care about merit or pats on the back.. yet that dev/mod gives me merit more regularly than doomad

its funny that doomad and his kiss ass army of 12 have not realised their ass kissing doesnt work. their campaigns fail and they just make themselves look stupid


i understand that doomad loves to recruit idiots into his schemes and defends those cult recruits idiocies with compliments and tell them them to ignore and block anyone that goes against the doomad cult mantra.. but cult leader is gonna be cult leader. and he will never change

but atleast the wider community can learn from others mistakes
and yes correcting mistakes is helpful, not ass kissing idiots

if people dont like to be corrected, they will never learn

anyway back to the point yet again (after the distractions of the cult group defending each others sensibilities)

the easiest ways to start seeing transactions bid as low as 1sat/byte again is to start using 1sat/decabyte so bidding starts lower than 1sat/byte to allow wiggle room for competition before even getting to 1sat/byte... instead of expecting the minimum being 1sat/byte where they then expect bids to go to that min in a competing market(facepalm)
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 3191
Leave no FUD unchallenged
if everyone started (...)

You do realise the odds of everyone suddenly thinking the same way you and your special brain do is pretty remote, right? 

If you insist on always having such a "unique" perspective about everything, then you can't expect people to agree with many of your views. 

It's as though you're perfectly cognisant of that fact that you're out of step with everyone else, yet you still get pissy about how everyone else is out of step with you.  Make it make sense, plz.


funny part is im not the one trying to get an ass kisser army

No, the funny part is you wouldn't be calling us an ass kisser army if we happened to agree with you all the time.  You and your ego would fucking love that, even though in such a scenario that would make us ass kissers towards you.  Again, you insist on having batshit mental stances on everything, so it's only natural that the number of people agreeing with you is going to be minuscule.  Please cry more.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
funny part is im not the one trying to get an ass kisser army of idiots to start using crap you lot promote
i dont promote things nor try to incite people to join me in any campaign or promotion of crap things
(you loved seeing the meme crap on the network causing a fee war, you promoted it too)

anyways
it is VERY EASY for users to start measuring transactions in decabytes meaning a lean tx of 226byte can start from 23sat total meaning a ~0.1sat/byte average. and if everyone started measuring transactions from a starting point of 1sat/decabyte then we can see the whole community then compete for priority at a better cost average start point (later measure tx from 1sat/kb)

but hey i understand that you lot dont want to think outside of the box of certain software defaults or think about maths properly
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1860
We're breathing fresh air once again. It seems the mempool is now free of dead monkeys, or perhaps only a few are left. I don't know if it hit 1 sat/vB for high priority transactions ever since the ordinals took over the mempool, but yesterday it went as low as 2 sat/vB. Right now, it's still low at 4 sat/vB.

There wasn't much who participated in the poll but it's funny how the majority thought this will not subside ever again. Many also thought this will only subside next year. Little did they know it would only take even less than a month for it to clear out. Perhaps even OP wasn't expecting this since the shortest option in the poll was 1 month.

Just like any hype, those monkeys couldn't live long.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
He was tired of being ignored so he decided to take personal shots at the OP to get attention, how classy.

nah. unlike you ass kissers who love attention and wanna get famous. i just prefer to correct idiots.. not my fault certain people show how foolish they are soo easily

if a OP makes a topic about sat per BYTE and makes examples of 20sats per BYTE=<$1 but then real math does not come confirm his calculations.. and when corrected he pretends he was always talking about Vbyte(a cludge misrepresented and undercounted bad math form) it just easily shows he cant do basic math of basic byte counting and sat counting

but ill leave you guys to ass kiss each other and stroke each others egos to feel better. seems its all you ever do on this forum, back up each other stupidity and junk trash promotions of cludgy code

so a repeat of the lesson:
minimal real byte TX of notmal transaction of expected lean tx of 1in 2 out legacy is 226bytes
20sat/byte=4520sats      4520sats = $1.24 today
and thats for a lean tx.. an average tx is nearly double the bytes so average tx is over $2
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
As is often the case, things happen when you least expect them, and given the poll, this was a case in point. It looks like we will soon be able to consolidate on weekends at 1 sat/Vbyte in a few blocks. I remember sending a couple of transactions at that rate last year that were confirmed in the next block.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
It went on longer than I thought it would.  But it seems 'greater fools' are a finite resource and they will run out eventually.  This silliness was never going to be economically viable on a permanent basis.  It was only going to last as long as people were buying the pictures and not enough people are doing that anymore.

Agreed, lasted longer than I thought it was going to as well. There will likely be resurgences, however they will be weaker and more brief with each passing one. The most hyped artwork was simply clones of pre-existing projects, for people who wanted to own their own Bored Ape or CryptoPunk... Most NFT manufacturers and promoters are largely out of incapable of forming original ideas.

and by the way vbyte is cludgy misrepresented math that doesnt even count real bytes.. but you do love bad math so i can understand why you prefer to say one thing and mean another

ITT:  Disreputable user takes a contrary stance because they think they're special.  No one else cares and continues to do things in the way normal people do them.

He was tired of being ignored so he decided to take personal shots at the OP to get attention, how classy.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 3191
Leave no FUD unchallenged
and by the way vbyte is cludgy misrepresented math that doesnt even count real bytes.. but you do love bad math so i can understand why you prefer to say one thing and mean another

ITT:  Disreputable user takes a contrary stance because they think they're special.  No one else cares and continues to do things in the way normal people do them.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.
dont quote 20sat/b and the pretend you meant vbyte

Of course franky, of course, you see, the only problem is that you know the ancient math, that one where we only had numbers from 1 to 2  Wink
https://mempool.space/tx/9ed475ae427fdc2862ef2fc556d59130883aeb98902799c8bcddc10639de662e

Quote
Fee   2,552 sat $0.69
Fee rate   23.3 sat/vB  

Not my problem you're stuck in the past and you're using furlongs and pints while everyone has moved away.

again you quoted "Assuming 20sat/b". and your exampled link is just 13sat/byte
thats why its only 69c because YOU cant tell the difference

now calculate what sat for byte is at a rate of 20sat per byte. as you first promoted

and by the way vbyte is cludgy misrepresented math that doesnt even count real bytes.. but you do love bad math so i can understand why you prefer to say one thing and mean another
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
And it's here:

The mempool having just leftovers

Only 21 blocks worth of tx left


The interesting thing, in the poll just one person out of 15 said 1 month which turned out to be true.

this means if you know maths(doubt you do)

Of course franky, of course, you see, the only problem is that you know the ancient math, that one where we only had numbers from 1 to 2  Wink
https://mempool.space/tx/9ed475ae427fdc2862ef2fc556d59130883aeb98902799c8bcddc10639de662e

Quote
Fee   2,552 sat $0.69
Fee rate   23.3 sat/vB   

Not my problem you're stuck in the past and you're using furlongs and pints while everyone has moved away.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.

$1 is 0.00003846 (at a whole btc rate of $26k)
a lean tx of 226byte means the sat/byte rate is 17sat/byte

this means if you know maths(doubt you do)
that if the same lean tx was 20sat/byte the total would be 0.00004520 which is $1.17
and thats for a LEAN tx. average tx are bigger meaning they pay more then $1.17
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 3191
Leave no FUD unchallenged
It went on longer than I thought it would.  But it seems 'greater fools' are a finite resource and they will run out eventually.  This silliness was never going to be economically viable on a permanent basis.  It was only going to last as long as people were buying the pictures and not enough people are doing that anymore.

It still saddens me that some people were ready and willing to sacrifice permissionless freedom to try and stamp it out sooner, though.  It would have failed and would only harm the network in the long run.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
As long as we keep trying to push for adoption, I honestly don't see this happening anytime soon as demand will keep tx fees high...

Look at the mempool prior to April this year!

How many TXs have been put off till 'later' since someone did not want to pay the ordinals tax?
Give it a while for people to find out that 2-3-4 sats will get you in the next block or so and pool will fill a bit.

I think the number is way smaller than we might have thought before, it would have been one thing if the fee would have hovered around 100sat/b but with it being for months in the 10-20sat/b and the biggest users (exchanges) already paying way above that I don't think there are that many users who have postponed their transactions and they have such a long batch of it to broadcast.
Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.

One of the more popular BRC-20 tokens, SATS, was "minted out" on Sept 24th... all 21 quadrillion of them, lol.
~
Here's a tweet that just about sums it up & potentially explains the lull in Ordinals activity:


Interesting so the dump from 44k to 8k (with a ton of zeros before that I'm not going to count) happened roughly 24 hours after the mempool started its decline and in the same timeframe with the stop in minting them, so it might be possible that the hype and usage was already dead and the congestion was because of the project still going out of inertia and long-missing periods?
Pages:
Jump to: