It will come back but I don't know when. Usually in bear market, we will have more chances to see low fee rate like 1 or 2 sat/byte.
Weeks ago, before latest attacks from BRC-20 tokens, mempools dropped to about 5 or 6 sat/byte that gives hope for cheaper fee rates. Historically Bitcoin does not perform well in September and late months of year so without intentional attacks from BRC20 usages, I believe we will see cheaper fee rates.
Next year will be hot so I don't expect 1-2 sat/byte fee rate in most of next year.
Topic: When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations? - page 3. (Read 588 times)
September 08, 2023, 06:35:29 AM
September 08, 2023, 05:46:03 AM
As many of you are aware, the mempool is full and overflowing and has been like that for a long, long period, when it comes to Bitcoin time. The last time it went near zero was back in April, and from then we haven't seen any sign of it finally going back to "normal" times of cheap
That's true because i still don't understand the mathematics that has been behind the mempool not going back to the usual 1sat/vbyte again, if it has ever been high then this should have been a thing of the past, by now we are not expected to still keep battling with that, thou i can see that from previous weeks, the fee rate has come down as low as 4sat/vbyte, but in few days back now, i can see a little small increase to about 10 to 16sats/vbyte, nevertheless all the fee rates are not what is beyond affordability since it's lesser than one dollar unlike when it uses more than 10 dollars fee rate when the mempool was very congested, i still insist in that we can still go back to where we are coming from with 1sat/vbyte.
September 08, 2023, 01:41:52 AM
As long as Ordinals and other related shit abuse isn't somehow technically fenced out, I doubt this will happen, I have little faith that we will see "normal" mempool times again. I'm sure miners are happy with the congestion of the past months, though. Blockchain spammers are likely proud of themselves. For the latter all I have is: fuck you!
If BRC20 did not cause any congestion, you people will not talk bad about it this way, but because it is not helping but making you to pay high fee make you to frown at it. That is bitcoin, you can also see that the lightning payment can be used for other things and has been linked to how fiat payment can be made in cross border payment with lower fees if compared with fiat payment. The bitcoin blockchain become more useful and miners are gsinning more money from that while people that have no option than to pay higher fee do not like it. 
September 07, 2023, 02:59:16 PM
As long as Ordinals and other related shit abuse isn't somehow technically fenced out, I doubt this will happen, I have little faith that we will see "normal" mempool times again. I'm sure miners are happy with the congestion of the past months, though. Blockchain spammers are likely proud of themselves. For the latter all I have is: fuck you!
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September 07, 2023, 02:19:20 PM
Well, I voted that never again are we going to see an empty mempool and neither are we ever going to see that 1sat/byte transaction confirmation fees anymore again, and I choose this because, bitcoins growing, both in popularity and usage, so it is expected that transaction will continue to grow.
Put in consideration the developments coming up like all the Bitcoin ETFs and so on, all this things are promoting Bitcoin to a wider range of people, and it should be expected that if SEC signs those ETFs, alot of people that have previously doubted the legitimacy of Bitcoin will come to believe in Bitcoin, and possibly want to invest in it, and when this begins to happen, I means more people using Bitcoin, more people buying and selling Bitcoin, popularity grows, adoption grows and so will sat/byte also grow due high traffic in the Bitcoin network ..
This is what I think concerning this matter, I hope to be corrected just incase there be some misconceptions.
Put in consideration the developments coming up like all the Bitcoin ETFs and so on, all this things are promoting Bitcoin to a wider range of people, and it should be expected that if SEC signs those ETFs, alot of people that have previously doubted the legitimacy of Bitcoin will come to believe in Bitcoin, and possibly want to invest in it, and when this begins to happen, I means more people using Bitcoin, more people buying and selling Bitcoin, popularity grows, adoption grows and so will sat/byte also grow due high traffic in the Bitcoin network ..
This is what I think concerning this matter, I hope to be corrected just incase there be some misconceptions.
September 07, 2023, 01:26:20 PM
I have been also waiting for those transactions to go down as well. I used to pass transactions at night, but it is not worth it anymore as used to be.
To be honest, it would take for people to move off Bitcoin ordinals for things going back to normal and being able to send Bitcoin at 1 sat/byte on weekends.
I thought since the price of Pepe went downhill, people would move from ordinals, as investors did with Non fungible tokens, but Bitcoin is such a popular network and with such a volume that it is unlikely people will completely forget about ordinals and the main network will continue to be used to try to scam people with useless tokens.
Even though things look grim and those living in developing countries (like me) certainly miss the low fees rates, it is not impossible for us to see them again.
To be honest, it would take for people to move off Bitcoin ordinals for things going back to normal and being able to send Bitcoin at 1 sat/byte on weekends.
I thought since the price of Pepe went downhill, people would move from ordinals, as investors did with Non fungible tokens, but Bitcoin is such a popular network and with such a volume that it is unlikely people will completely forget about ordinals and the main network will continue to be used to try to scam people with useless tokens.
Even though things look grim and those living in developing countries (like me) certainly miss the low fees rates, it is not impossible for us to see them again.
September 07, 2023, 01:21:56 PM
it is already possible for people to gauge fees in kb/sat meaning starting fees can begin under 1sat/byte. meaning priority competition can start levels below sat/byte meaning if cheap/lowest was 4 sat per kb then a 250byte tx would cost 1sat total rather than 250sat for 250byte at a 1sat/byte rate minimum
meaning a 250x less starting point for costs..
thus competition can begin at 4sat/kb and go up by 24x to 96sat/kb* meaning a 250byte tx would be 24sat total for tx at the kb rate premium instead of 4250sat at the byte rate premium
the problem is.. not one wants to start measuring transactions below 1sat/byte, even if code makes it possible
*(24x) much like the priority upto 24sat/byte difference to the lowest 1sat/byte using stompixs fee estimate premium
meaning a 250x less starting point for costs..
thus competition can begin at 4sat/kb and go up by 24x to 96sat/kb* meaning a 250byte tx would be 24sat total for tx at the kb rate premium instead of 4250sat at the byte rate premium
the problem is.. not one wants to start measuring transactions below 1sat/byte, even if code makes it possible
*(24x) much like the priority upto 24sat/byte difference to the lowest 1sat/byte using stompixs fee estimate premium
September 07, 2023, 01:16:32 PM
For us to see those low levels of fees, we're going to need a combination of a deeper deeper more-depressing slow bear market, and a death of Bitcoin ordinals. I think it's a bit unlikely for us to reach that levels of market-"deadness", but it's definitely not outside the realm of possibility. What we only need is a longer 2020 version of market sentiment.
September 07, 2023, 01:10:17 PM
I really do hope we get a less congested mempool soon but I am not optimistic of the whole transactions being cleared up anytime soon with the current situation of things and future expectations.
For the network to have less transaction hold up we need either far higher hashrates it significantly less new transactions being made (particular ordinals) and I do not see either of this situation happening.
The next couple of months before the halving will be busy for the network and so will the months after it. Anyone looking to consolidate their small transactions should consider doing it now with the cheapest sat/vbyte they can find.
For the network to have less transaction hold up we need either far higher hashrates it significantly less new transactions being made (particular ordinals) and I do not see either of this situation happening.
The next couple of months before the halving will be busy for the network and so will the months after it. Anyone looking to consolidate their small transactions should consider doing it now with the cheapest sat/vbyte they can find.
September 07, 2023, 12:57:48 PM
We need to get our acts together guys. In one side we celebrate New adoptions and on the other hand we complain about network congestion. Network congestion will not go down, rather it will keep on increasing. We may see some periods are less busier than usual but that's not going to stay for long.
With adoption and new users, transaction volume increases. Then there's a madness called Ordinals which is becoming a real pain. Controlling Ordinals will bring temporary result but we need to think about a long term solution. Bitcoin network is just not capable of handling sudden spike in volume.
With adoption and new users, transaction volume increases. Then there's a madness called Ordinals which is becoming a real pain. Controlling Ordinals will bring temporary result but we need to think about a long term solution. Bitcoin network is just not capable of handling sudden spike in volume.
September 07, 2023, 12:17:16 PM
That would be when what is causing the mempool congestion is no more causing it. But, I doubt that, because people are going for Ordinals which surprisingly I have not known much about it, but it is what that is causing the congestion.
We do not know if there would be another invention that will lead to more use of the bitcoin blockchain, but this is very possible and their may be more congestion.
Halving is getting closer day by day. If more people will buy bitcoin at some point after halving which will result to a significant bull run period, I do not know how the mempool will be so much congested at that time. It will be much more congested.
But with the look of things, I do not think that mempool can be so less congested to the extent it will reach 1 sat/vbyte of high fee priority again.
We do not know if there would be another invention that will lead to more use of the bitcoin blockchain, but this is very possible and their may be more congestion.
Halving is getting closer day by day. If more people will buy bitcoin at some point after halving which will result to a significant bull run period, I do not know how the mempool will be so much congested at that time. It will be much more congested.
But with the look of things, I do not think that mempool can be so less congested to the extent it will reach 1 sat/vbyte of high fee priority again.
September 07, 2023, 12:02:22 PM
If the difficulty was reduced would that help?
No, the difficulty has little to do with the capacity of the blockchain except for small variations, during the adjustment periods.
And actually it's the opposite, difficulty going down because miners are turning off their gears leads to fewer blocks in the 14 day interval so lower capacity: https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Right now this is how it looks:
Quote
Latest Block: 806622 (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace: 96.3419% (223 / 231.47 expected, 8.47 behind)
Next Difficulty Change: between -3.5372% and -0.7605%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 5:24 AM (-2.6452%)
Current Pace: 96.3419% (223 / 231.47 expected, 8.47 behind)
Next Difficulty Change: between -3.5372% and -0.7605%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 5:24 AM (-2.6452%)
Just one day into this period we're down ~3.5%, meaning 8 blocks behind the target so around 20,000 fewer confirmed transactions than it should have been normally.
September 07, 2023, 11:35:43 AM
This way outside my wheelhouse but it's something I am starting to look into and learn more about. As I expand my horizons this is starting to become a concern, transactional time and cost.
If the difficulty was reduced would that help?
If the difficulty was reduced would that help?
September 07, 2023, 11:29:33 AM
As many of you are aware, the mempool is full and overflowing and has been like that for a long, long period, when it comes to Bitcoin time. The last time it went near zero was back in April, and from then we haven't seen any sign of it finally going back to "normal" times of cheap tx and gaps in which you can consolidate your dust.
Now betting on more acceptance, another bull run, are we going to see an empty mempool again or is this a thing of the past?
I would love to see your opinions but also, more importantly, your reasoning for this!
With enough tx for 3 days worth in the mempool, with hashrate going down because of decreasing revenue so fewer blocks each period which add to this, and not even a tiny sign of ordinal fomo dying down, my bet is on the next year or the holiday season at the end of the year.
Now betting on more acceptance, another bull run, are we going to see an empty mempool again or is this a thing of the past?
I would love to see your opinions but also, more importantly, your reasoning for this!
With enough tx for 3 days worth in the mempool, with hashrate going down because of decreasing revenue so fewer blocks each period which add to this, and not even a tiny sign of ordinal fomo dying down, my bet is on the next year or the holiday season at the end of the year.
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