Topic: When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations? - page 2. (Read 588 times)

the sudden drop is a obvious sign that it was not a large community of lots of random people.. but instead just a couple of people working together and collectively they got bored/didnt make profit and so realised they wasted their time

if it was more random of lots of people the drop would not be sudden nor to any large extent because different people making choices at different times would have varied the production.. so its obviously just a couple scam spammers and not a large community

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another thing i have to keep reminding people is that we dont have to actually measure transactions in minimum of 1sat/byte which increment by a sat per competitive bidding

imagine if we done it instead as:  1sat/kb
where by a lean 226byte tx is more prefered than a 408byte tx because although both tx only pay 1 sat. the leaner tx uses less space meaning a pool can fit more than 2 lean tx's in the space of a single bloated tx, thus gets more income over all by fitting in more transactions

think about it if a user pay 1sat/kb meaning both transactions are 1sat. the mining pools would prefer 2x 226byte tx's rather than 1 tx of 408bytes. because the 408byte tx only pays 1sat. but 2x tx of 226byte pay a total of 2sat.. meaning mining pools prefer leaner transactions. and it makes users want to make their tx leaner to have more of a better position

EG if you had
p2pkh 1in2out (226) = 4.42 priority
p2pkh 1in3out (260) = 3.84 priority
p2pkh 2in2out (374) = 2.67 priority
p2pkh 2in3out (408) = 2.45 priority

because the leaner a tx is the more priority it gets because the pool can then fit in more tx's paying 1sat/kb

i know some will now reply to argue that no one will want to bid in sat/kb measure as its a huge leap from sat/byte.. but we can always do sat per decabyte

meaning a 226byte tx is 23sat instead of todays minimum of 226sat

It's as if someone flipped a switch. I didn't have time in the last days to take a look at the Mempool misery that lasted for some months since this Ordinals and BRC-20 shit hit the fan. Now that such a "sudden" drainage started, I'm a bit surprised and pleased. Me too, I have to ask: wtf happened for such an abrupt change? I can't quite believe that other people came back to sanity and dropped Ordinals and all the other blockchain spam.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to see a more "normal" Mempool and less bloat written into Bitcoin's blockchain.

Well, it finally happened... Let's see if my theory holds true or not. For the moment it seems like it may not. Is the Ordinals rush finally over?


Seems like as good a theory as any.

One of the more popular BRC-20 tokens, SATS, was "minted out" on Sept 24th... all 21 quadrillion of them, lol.



Now maybe people are starting to discover that nobody wants these tokens and are moving on to the next thing  

Here's a tweet that just about sums it up & potentially explains the lull in Ordinals activity:



https://coinranking.com/coin/mROMqPxZd+sats-sats

Bit of a loop, people who were not making TX because of the high fees have walked away a bit. Once they notice that they have dropped fees will go back up.
How many TXs have been put off till 'later' since someone did not want to pay the ordinals tax?

Give it a while for people to find out that 2-3-4 sats will get you in the next block or so and pool will fill a bit.

-Dave

As long as we keep trying to push for adoption, I honestly don't see this happening anytime soon as demand will keep tx fees high...

And to top it off, our exchanges that are very much vital in the crypto ecosystems do put pressure on tx fees as they always want to get tx in the next block by using higher transaction fees which makes this a continuous process that won't allow fees to drop...

But checking mempool we seem to be close to 1sat/b as I have seen this to have dropped from the high fees we used to seeing...which is only possible because  of the weekend, Monday this will go up .

Transaction count incoming to mempool ended on 19th september abruptly. Like from 7000 to let's say "normal" 1800 transaction vBytes per second (vB/s).  Does anyone know what happened?

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/10/01/Pji5l.png

And nobody said less than one month which might look like a winner right now
The mempool is drying up at an insane pace:



In just 6 days we went from 200vMB to barely 60vMB and the weekend is not finished so it might go till 30 or even less by Monday evening.
Same as fees from 10-20 on average now 3sat/vb are getting confirmed.

And now that the ordinals are gone, one could ask...where has the actual usage gone?

Of course we won't, spam gets better treatment than normal transactions, because of the pools subsidizing it.
It was no placebo, until Feb you could perfectly do it as i used to do after mid 2018 until the start of 2023 before the spam invasion.
1 sat/b tx could take from about 1 or 2 hours to maybe 1 or 2 days. This was perfectly fine for many types of transactions that needed no urgency.
And then came the spam subsidized by pools as an "alternative" source of income to them...
In the past, some pools allowed you to pay to "unstuck" transactions, now the new fashion is pay to spam the blockchain.
It is fine spam a marked crashed, but there is spam b, c, d... or should i say spam r, g, b now? whatever, spam is spam.
Maybe Bitcoin should be renamed Spamcoin, since that clearly has priority now...

This is exactly what happened the last time, it seems like the ordinals were dying, that fees would go down, and just as everyone was relieved here came Binance dumping 40vMB of consolidating transactions and sending my next 4 block tx to the next day 
I'm pretty sure there are a lot of users there who see a few satoshis worth of dust in their wallets and are saying that next time if there will be one at all they will consolidate all their inputs even at 3-4sat or otherwise just delete that damn wallet.


I opened that topic about jpg monkeys kicking our asses more out of frustration and boredom but...
https://ordinals.com/block/806896
Like wtf, the last mined block has 3 f*** monkeys in it! Wow!

As for the economic part of this, it seems one of the money was this one:
https://mempool.space/tx/35fb1c78dac16f55e924596746adf6186aa56c33d612e2341cec2e6177c6990c
 25$, would this be "prohibitively expensive"? I have no clue about the profit expectation part, but at 4sat/b it would cost 5$ so everyone would afford to inscribe a picture of whatever he wishes there, which would mean there will never be a 1sat/b time ever gain.

The thing is once fees get low enough, I think you'll see more giant inscriptions taking place... There's probably at least a hundred people waiting for the opportunity to upload a jpeg of a monkey when fees get low enough again. Right now its prohibitively expensive. Inscriptions for the current fad, BRC-20, are tiny in comparison, and they account for the vast majority of all inscriptions.

https://dune.com/jellyz/brc20-track

If the ordinals keeps being hyped then it will be a while before we see 1 satbyte. However if the fad passes and the bitcoin and crypto markets are still trading sideways then we might see those low fees. I think last month we got fees as low as 3 sats. But then the markets started to be more active and then the ordinals came back in play.

I also have a lot of inputs I should of combined during those 1 sat byte days however I was lazy and now I will also have to wait or start to pay the higher prices to get those small inputs combined to 1 larger input.

1sat/vb is sometimes results in a placebo effect.

We are at a time when thinking about 1 sat/vb is a thing of the "past," then, in the comparison of the use that we give it a lot, except for the stupid "pepe" effect, things are still advantageous in the comparison with a Swift.

The point is that many continue to move in comparison with other rates in the crypto ecosystem, we must learn to move as situations arise, in the near future making Txs with small amounts in bitcoin network, will not make much sense.

So, that romantic scenario of 1 sat/vb is at least latent, but it subsists in a temporal reality that tends to have in many that mental Praxis in its equivalent of wanting to get rich by buying some Satoshi.

On top of all the other crap getting dumped into the mempool the other issue is lurkers.
How many people / businesses have UTXO they want to consolidate and they are waiting for a drop in the mempool to take care of it.

The longer it takes to clear, the more they have to consolidate. It drops to an acceptable level for them, and then they start to do it. And then others do the same, and then the cycle starts again.

It will eventually clear itself, but it will probably be a while.

-Dave

Op as we know there are a few factors involved in it, Bitcoin Halving, Bitcoin adoption by price boost, Mining difficulty, and Adoption of L2 Solutions. Considering the current market as far it is concerned at least for a few very recent years we are not going to any changes in the meme pool even more congested mempool can be expected, due to the Bitcoin price shoot adoption because of a reasonable transaction count boost, Bitcoin Halving event directly impact the inner behavior and indirectly the memepool as well which means it can't be neglected as well.

As far as the mining difficulty/hash rate is concerned in the lower hash rate a slighter change in the Block Production and slower transaction confirmation can greatly affect the memepool in congested scenarios. FOMO at the very early stage of the Price movement to the ATH can boost the transaction count as well.

Coming to the point of empty Memepool, I think there are a lot of challenges to this expectation but with the support of a few points we can say eventually it might be possible as with the L2 solution adoption the pressure on the Bitcoin network memepool can be reduced and on the Peak of Bull journey and after halving revert due to bullish market sentiments the transaction count decreases by a reasonable number. Except for this I cant see any senerio lets see what other think about it.

On Twitter there are many NFT shill accounts that claim they are making big profits from NFTs based on ordinal protocols, one of which is onchainmonkey. since the ordinal protocol appeared, nothing good has happened to Bitcoin, instead The Bitcoin network has gotten heavier and there have even been a lot of congested transactions that have occurred due to heavy network loads.

ordinal protocol developers only care about profit from the shit NFT they sell. liberate the bitcoin network from the ordinals protocol, That's what we should be campaigning for, right?

If we could lean more towards incentivisation and away from any notions of "control", that would be more constructive.  This is all about permissionless freedom, after all.  Once we start trying to tell people what they can or can't do with their funds, we're no better than the traditional banking system.

Granted, people generally find the ordinals stuff annoying, but it's not our place to try to restrict or prevent it.  By all means look for ways to make it more efficient, but once one group starts looking for ways to stop another group from transacting, that's a damn slippery slope.  I'm sure you would be speaking in very different terms if someone was trying to prevent you from transacting the way you wanted to, for example.

It may never happen or repeat itself, that is making transactions with fees as low as 1sat/b. That time seems past to me as it is normal that fees and the cost of things even in life always tend to increase with time. And if you consider how more people are becoming interested in bitcoins and using it not just for investment but for transactions, you will agree that there will always be traffic and sometimes congestion on the network. If you wait for night to make transactions, your night is also someones day, so if you usually experience low fees at night where you are, know that it is just only a matter of time because as the number of users of the network increase at the other side where they are in the day, the fees for transactions will increase as well.

Well, I would have voted for a couple of years o so but I don't see the option, I would have to choose between 1 year and never again. The issue of ordinals will take time to disappear from the mempool, and a new trend of this kind could appear that fills it with spam and pushes up the fees. Also, the next bull market is not going to help low fees either, but I wouldn't mind if the price goes up a lot and these fees are maintained or even increased.

I stick to that old saying "never say never" so I won't even choose that option, and I also don't see how mempool would be cleaned of all those transactions in the next 3 months because there is no indication that the ordinal team will give up what they are doing. So I am left with the option that something positive will happen next year in this regard, although it does not quite fit in with the post effects of the halving and the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US.

When we look at the situation realistically, it is easy to conclude that miners have nothing against everything because they earn more from fees, and as far as I understand, although it is technically possible to remove ordinals from the BTC blockchain, there is no reaction even from the BTC developers.

If I were to refer to the other topic, then I can agree that we have to slowly start getting used to the fees, which will be higher than before - but if we look at the value in fiat, the current $0.5 or $1, which the fees currently amount to, have less purchasing power than 3-4 years ago, considering inflation.

1 sat after the bull run, so that's 2025 I don't have much reasoning to contribute to this. Other than the memory of 2017/18 and how crazy things were for the longest time.

Ordinals is dying... if volume and market cap suggest otherwise, it's only because of the sheer number of new entrants, propping up marketcap with hyped interest. The original tokens have never recaptured their May highs so it's just a wave that needs riding out. If BAYC took 2+ years to finally deflate, then that's 18 more months for ordinals to see out their death knell.