Topic: When are you going to cash out? - page 4. (Read 11087 times)

They have paid thousands BTC for dividend: http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE

Maybe it's just a pump-and-dump trick. Not only the players are fake, they also pretend to be investors. They may just buy 90% of their IPO so the actual dividend they paid is minimal. By pumping the profits, they can sell their shares with very high premium. When they have sold most of their shares, those fake players will disappear.

Good luck with that  I admire your confidence.  

I'm following the advice given me by a long-time pro trader when he said 'never trade into a falling market'.  In common with many who have commented on this thread, I've switched paradigms and am not looking at my Bitcoin holding from a fiat investment perspective but looking at it as the currency with which I hope over time to be doing more and more of my daily dealings.

Therefore, from a long-term Bitcoin optimist perspective, it's the falling fiat market I'd be trading - which is too risky for me

I'm afraid to have to inform you that says more about your failure to do even the most basic fact checking than it does about what is going on with S.DICE

Again, one of the beauties of this business model with Bitcoin is that it is largely transparent.  The statistical analysis that is done on a daily basis by someone independent of evoorhees (and can be checked by anyone with the the requisite understandably of how it works) gives us figures that tell us what the monthly profit is.  From that it can be calculated approximately what the dividend will be.  So if the dividend is paid and it is what is expected I'm failing to see the potential you're claiming for skulduggery.

On the 'insider playing' point, technically you may have a point in that somebody with an interest in inflating the value of the business could be playing the game all the time and getting the losses back as part of their dividend.  However this is more likely to have been the case before any shares were made public.  The higher the proportion of existing stock is owned publicly, the higher the proportion of the profits made from 'insider playing' that doesn't go back to the player.  I'm not saying it's not possible but it is getting less likely.  Also, if the purpose of this whole underhand exercise was to maximise the demand for and the price of the stock why on earth would the Monday tranche of stocks have been put on the market without announcement at ~60% of what they were trading for at the time?

Please by all means keep up with the scepticism. I guess we're all vulnerable to some degree of getting carried away with excitement, confidence and trust to our own detriment so it is healthy for us all that some here are airing their doubts.  However you'd come over as more credible and be of better service to the rest of us if you'd do some fact checking and research first.

Edit:  Apologies all for being off-topic but bitcoinBull has been raising this point on a number of threads and I thought should be put right on the most blatantly incorrect aspects (so the casual reader is not misinformed).  Maybe bitcoinBull and EskimoBob should start their own thread to put forward the theory that SD is a scam.  Their intentions may be good but bringing the same points up repetitively in different threads I'm afraid makes it come across (to me at least) as conspiracy-theory FUD.

I do small cash outs occasionally but overall I'm in the camp of "never cashing out". Bitcoins are my primary long term savings and I plan on using them directly for goods and services as needed.

Obviously if something extremely negative happens my outlook could change entirely but as it stands I'm certainly in it for the long haul.

First off, to my knowledge so far they haven't sent any profits to any shareholders. And secondly, if they do start paying dividends, they could just be paying them from the principal/IPO cost of the shares. Then its in their interest to keep doing so, as long they issue and sell more shares.

The SatoshiDice operator(s) can use the house funds to simulate players and revenue, obviously at no risk. Whether there are investors or not has no effect on the possibility of inflating players and revenue by simply generating a bunch of transactions to the SatoshiDice addresses. However, if they are raising funds from investors or trying to sell the business (and they are), then to inflate revenues is clearly in seller's best short-term greedy interest. They don't care about the long-term viability because they're selling their stake.

I just dont get why SD is so popular. It seems like its  a game targeted at assburgers since you dont need to have any interaction with other people so its completely sanitised. But then I cant stand poker machines either.

Procreation of the most greedy, or "survival of the fittest", is a myth perpetuated by sociopaths who don't understand evolution. On both a biological level and a societal level, the rule of thumb is "survival of the most cooperative." Mutual aid and benefit is the only way organisms thrive in an environment. It starves and goes extinct if it eats the last bit of its food source, so for long-term success it must act in a way that is mutually beneficial to its food source.

Same with humans; acting greedy might be advantageous in the very short-term, but to thrive long-term requires acting in cooperative ways that are mutually beneficial to the social environment. If not, you'll be a societal outcast and have nobody to trade with, and you'll starve if you aren't jailed/killed.

They would need to actually send the 'fake' profits to the real owners of the shares so it seems like a terrible plan. Now if they didn't have other investors then making 'fake' wagers for publicity would be possible.

Greed is good...

I had to slip that line in


But on a serious note, ever since human existence there was greed. It is competition of who is the best. Look at human history how many times a person screwed over another person just to be the best. A lot of that times is in monetary value so you can see greed is what drives us most the time.

Greed is doing things in your own interest. In humans the only way to keep your genetic markup in the gene pool is by surviving an procreating therefore humans are inclined to do things which:

1) Increases their chance to survive
2) Increases their chance to procreate
3) Increases the chance of their descendants (the closer the better, so preferably children)  to survive
4) Increases the chance of their descendants (the closer the better, so preferably children)  to procreate
5) Same thing for other non-descendant family

This is what I define as greed. Gordon Gecko agrees

May I disagree with the bold part.. IMHO greed is a distortioned value, before the years 1900, most poeples where not greedy at all.  Gives everyone what they need to survive and be happy, (nice food, quality shelter, toys, leisure), greedy suddently become useless and more a burden than anything else.
Greed is a by-product of a capitalist oriented society !

Sorry for this "may seems" excessive tought

+1 THIS

very nice tought

For starters, SatoshiDICE could make an official statement about their profits. These estimates are nothing more than rumors running wild.

To discount the theory, MPOE (or whoever runs the stock exchange) could do an official audit, correctly using the blockchain (eg, mark a cluster of addresses as their proven reserves for payouts, so we know they aren't spinning their reserves to simulate players). Transparency (and common sense) is the best tool to combat fraud. What do you think it is that gives us trust in bitcoin? Its the transparency of the system, not some bullshit chart going skyhigh.



Is that google docs spreadsheet an official statement? Who released it?

Yeah you cashed out alright you sold 15% of your company, got all of your original investment back, and offloaded all of the risk onto the buyers of the floated equity while keeping a tidy revenue stream for yourself. Smart move!

But seriously, I don't plan on cashing out my Bitcoins until I have no gold, fiat savings, or salary left, and I need to buy essentials.

Why? You watch the blockchain and perform addition and subtraction. This is public and not "estimation".
S.DICE P&L statement.
Third party analysis

Your theory is that SatoshiDICE is playing itself in order to generate fake profits and sell more shares?

I can't really see any way to discount said theory.... anyone else?

Yet again I find myself agreeing with you...



But you can't have it.

People already use it.  And a growing market cap will lead to gradually smaller volatility, which will increase the possible uses for bitcoins. 

True, which is why bitcoin is currently trading at a very significant risk premium below its potential.

The free market is regulated..... by the members of the market. I want a new, stable, market regulated currency. Bitcoin can be forgotten just as fast as it was spawned. If people cant use it it has no value what so ever, if a better coin comes along bitcoin will just be a memory. You guys cant see the forest for the bitcoins IMO.

So its an estimate from the blockchain. At this point, those profits are as real as pirateat40 profits. Notice how SDICE is not confirming or reporting official numbers. They are just letting people run wild with their own imaginations so they can sell more "shares"...



Doesn't sound very realistic does it? More revenues from people willing to risk all-or-nothing dice, or from people trading day after day on mtgox? I don't think so

Didn't you buy it from somebody else (in a more basic look)?  I am assuming you are still a majority shareholder (not that it is any of my business).