Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 40. (Read 6939 times)

it is as what we have been hearing from news around the world that there is manipulation happening in campaigning and yes also there are chance that Donald  Trump will take part again and change the momentum of Biden.
but about interest in betting? of course I am because this is a worldwide event that gamblers need to take part 
have missed the recent election so maybe this time I will take the right bet.

The thing is that advertisers and politicians, etc, have always wanted to put people in a box and feed them information to change their minds into their advantage. It used to be very broad, but now it's starting to be targeted specifically to each person through their phones.

Every time an app in your phone suggests you something, a video, an article, a photo, whatever, if it comes from a company, it probably means that someone is pushing you slightly to whatever they want to think. That's advertisement, but on a fine grained level.

I would encourage people not to use these platforms if they want to have independent thought and full control of their minds.

As I am not a US citizen and I don't live in the US either, everything I know about US election campaigns comes from the news channels, and from what I read the US elections are fair, there is no fraud, so I know to what extent the campaigns would they be manipulated and how would they be manipulated, wouldn't that be a crime and wouldn't the courts stop that sort of thing? because from what I see in the press, the US justice system is neutral, they are not controlled by political parties and the government, so in the US democracy and elections work in a way that there is no fraud, so I don't understand why you are saying that campaigns are manipulated

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it's strange that trump is no longer president but since he stopped being president he manages to get more attention in the news channels in relation to biden, even if many of the things that make trump appear more in the news channels are not the type of things with a good reputation, but the guy doesn't go without attention, I wonder why biden is a president who doesn't get much attention in the news? the only news I see biden appear on is related to ukraine or nato or something that has to do with russia, but even in that, biden doesn't get much attention. I wonder what would happen if the elections were bides vs trump again

I mostly I agree. I think elections are getting more unpredictable as the politics in the United States are moving from the center to the opposite sides of the spectrum.

I would not be surprised if polls and surveys would be trying to use information gathered from the population through the use of social media and other technologies which the population is used to nowadays.

They may feel tempted because, it may be more effective for them pay Google for a package of personal information for them to analyze than actually invest hundreds of hours asking people about their political preferences in an explicit manner, not everyone feels comfortable talking about it or express what they truly feel.

From the Republicans group, my vote would go for Trump while for the democrats I think I will go for Biden because so far these two candidates are the hottest in the publics eye but if I were to choose if who will win between them I think I will go for Trump as I think many people are also in favor with Trump and he is more popular than in Biden.

Many people think that Bidens victory is not fair. This is one of the reasons why me and others dislike this guy. In spite of these analyses I made, I am still not betting on 2024 elections because it's not really my game and I am already playing a lot of gambling games lately. I don't want to add more and complicate things further.

Many candidates will run for the presidency in the US in the coming 2024. And I see only two groups that the candidates can come from and these are democrats and Republicans.

The Republicans who can run are Trump, Youngkin, Scott, Sununu, Ramaswamy, Rubio, Pence, Noem, Hutchinson, Laffy, Bolton, Cheney, and others. And for the Democrats, Sina Biden, Sanders, Warren, Polis, Pritzker, Klobuchar, Cortez, Harris, Kennedy Jr., and Williamson. It's hard to predict who will win out of those, let's see. But I'm pretty sure Trump and Biden will face again at the end of the games, just a thought of mine only.

while it is too early to talk about whom to choose(as candidate) still we are not sure who will be the candidate per party so  maybe talking about this is not to be tackled now(unless we are Biden supporter)

But talking about the topic , I am not interested in any form of political gambling as I once tried betting in our local politician that ends out being cheated and lose.

and also one thing is that there are so many place where to bet.

The odds will be very different by then when you place a bet just a day before the election. You will be missing potential profits when you could just learn what people are saying. Candidates are judged by the sentiments and what they did in the past and who they would believe whether the mainstream media or the youtube influencers who are constantly updated with what is going on not just in the DC.

There is a year and a half still and things could change after a year when Biden will start distributing stimi checks again and canceling loans. That will make him win the race. But of course, the consequences will follow. We'll just see what happens. The news halfway around the world can change the course though.

In politics, the wind can change easily and quickly. One false statement may turn the entire public sentiment around. One confidential file from a candidate leading in surveys leaked and it could upend everything. A dark horse candidate could end up winning the race. So if I am betting on US elections, I will have to place my bets as soon as the election day is near. It is when a surprise factor that could possibly change the potential results is no longer expected.

That's why they are a sample, and they are always biased.

For example a phone survey is probably biased towards older people, because younger people tend to not have landlines, etc.

Also it's a very small sample anyway. Although models are getting very sophisticated, all that matters is the actual election, because things can change dramatically in days.

Media manipulation, vote buying, propaganda; these are things which could make changes with regards to the poll. If you are just gambling things out and not really into the essence of the result, this would be a risky line to deal with. But most of the time, regardless of their image, the one who is more popular would be the winner than the other who is more of promoting the actual service.Indeed, aside from the fact that I'm not a citizen of U.S., I think this will just be hard to win somehow; politics is just way too complex and would be easier to win on sportsbetting. I actually percieve betting on elections quite "dark" because if you would look for an in depth aspect, it is a country's future which would be the bottomline and betting for it somehow adds up with the burden if the winner of election happened to be bad for a country.

Actually, surveys and polls are not always accurate, specially during these times of polarization, there is a silent majority of people who may choose not to openly talk about their political point of views.

Take for example the last mid-term elections in the United States, there was allegedly a "red wave" coming in and according to polls democrats would have lost both the senate and the the house of representatives. In the end, republican barely could win the house.  

So, I respect your point of view about political betting, but I don't give so much credit to pollsters.

Well, to be honest, the decision to phase out the US dollar doesn't really seem to be a collective decision but more like a rivalry from some of the countries with the United States, the main rivals are probably China and Russia which are currently in news for ditching the US dollar and using their own currencies or Chinese yuan for their trades.

Still, I do partly agree with your point that a good leader has to have good policies and abilities to make an economy become better and prosper over time instead of going downhill, and the age factor might play a role in this as people tend to have better decision taking abilities when they are a bit younger than those who are aged.

It would be quite risky to bet on the 2024 US election because we know that Trump and Biden both have forces and supporters who can change US political conditions and make this election more difficult to predict. Moreover, the US is known for its often manipulative campaigns and bribery which makes it not worth it to bet on this election.

I'm pretty sure that Bernie Sanders has zero chances, he will not run for president because the age.  Josh Hawley and Sarah Palin, they have even less chances than Bernie Sanders. Gambling sites don't even accept bets on them, as far as I know. Kevin McCarthy, on the other hand, worth a small bet, imo, because the odds right now, 101.00, are pretty good. And it's not like he has zero chances. I bet 10 cents on him, just in case.

That's a very good vital point you just stated above, and as such it's not right for a person who stands in the position of the president of a country to be an old individual who easily forgets, because Biden is an old man, of which by next year he will be 81yrs old, old enough to be at the "Home for the elderly" as a political godfather and not a contestant. And likewise "Donald Trump" the former U.S president who just announced his intention into running for President next year to just calm down and rest, because he was once in that office and he did quite a good job.
Who America needs now is a strong hand, and I think Corey Stapleton is the right man for the job (i.e a former Navy officer)

Its hard to guess outcome of American votings. We all know right wing is on raise in Europe. But not very far right. More like democrat Christian type of political movements. America is interesting case, it generally differs from Europe. American public can't heavily support when leader is obvious right. Trump won voting like with miniscule difference. Now he has more reputable name for right wing. But cases against him are terrible. I still feel like Biden or his follower won't be able to win next voting.

There is enough logic in your statement. Massive changes can happen over a long period of time. Moreover, those willing to bet on following Joe Biden or Donald Trump have considerable uncertainty as to whether they will be elected at that time. Betting odds among gamblers may also change around this election when that moment approaches. I think we should wait more before considering such matters. Because any change can happen. Moreover, since there is a long time for the election, gamblers should wait patiently.

I wonder if other countries are betting on this result as well.

Simply by publishing odds they might change some votes I guess. That would be some kind of international interference.

This is a bet I don't think I can involve my money in again, the election that was conducted in my country just a month ago was terribly rigged, we all knew our winner, infact, we had already placed him on sit in our minds and with our money but what happened, the imposed our greatest fear on us t say the least, the imposition was very clear.