Topic: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? - page 18. (Read 5468 times)

Russia does not want to stop supplying gas to Europe because this is considered its main source of income. If the gas contract is terminated, both sides will suffer heavy losses the victory belongs to no one. No other country can substitute a good supply like Russia for Europe. All are just temporary solutions and there is no other choice.

If it is true that Russia wants to stop gas supplies to Europe, Iran will most likely take over temporarily, although we know other countries do not have the same power as Russia, but at least they can help other European countries a little, if other countries do not impose excessive sanctions on Russia. In my opinion, Putin will not stop gas supplies to Europe, I hope the Russo-Ukrainian war can end soon, because I really miss peace.

I am not residing in Iran or Venezuela. I am a resident of India. And here, we have seen oil and gas imports from Russia skyrocketing. This month, around half a million barrels of Russian crude is arriving at the Indian ports every day (more than 12% of the Indian net imports). Some of this crude is refined in to diesel or gasoline and re-exported to the European Union. I have heard about similar stories from countries such as Indonesia as well.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-jumps-4th-position-oil-supplier-india-tanker-data-2022-05-17/

Indian imports of crude from Russia (barrels per day):

March 2022: 66,000
April 2022: 277,000
May 2022: 487,500

I do not understand the question, what is surprising for you that long-term contracts are usually concluded at a discount to the market price? Your desire to count the money in someone else's pocket is also strange to me.

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

People keep suggesting Iran in this topic but they just focus on the capacity Iran has and some random statements published in the media. I don't think it is going to happen for a single reason: lack of incentive.

Iran simply has no reason to replace Russian gas in Europe because years ago the plan to export gas to EU was on the table and the incentive was also there for Iran since the economy was a lot smaller than today but EU didn't agree with it for reasons that are off-topic here.
Today Iran's exports are at an all time high and the cost of energy is rapidly rising which means the energy parts of exports Iran already has are generating a lot more money already.

However, I think it will eventually happen. Maybe in a year from now when the incentive is massive and energy prices have reached the highest they can.
It's basically like JCPOA, when US abandoned it in 2018 Iran already had the upper hand shortly after but the come back was prolonged to gain even a higher upper hand (From 3.67% enrichment to 60% with a massive stockpile). The agreement still won't be reached since Iran's position keeps getting stronger so an even bigger incentive is required!

Not to mention that Iran's strategy was changed in 2019 from Maximum Resistance to Maximum Pressure. The shoe is on the other foot

Its not possible. Same with Saudi Arabia who is not cooperative right now to US. These are countries oppressed for several years, they are not coming to rescue anyone.  After Biden bad mouthed Saudi prince, these are proud people its not easy to tamed him anymore.

These countries realized energy is the most needed to keep an economy of their own. It maybe possible that Iran or Saudi will also demand to buy oil from them using their currency like Russia did.

Are you serious?

Iran is one of Russia's strategic partners with many joint projects, including in the field of oil production and oil refining. Even if you factor out the sanctions generously imposed by the West on Iran, by buying oil from Iran you are also indirectly buying oil from Russia. Venezuela has a similar story.

Russia's oil embargo has failed, Europe cannot agree on and accept the sixth package of sanctions. Europe has already reached its sanctions limit, further escalation of sanctions against Russia harms Europe itself more than Russia. And Europe will also have to pay for gas in rubles, European companies hastily open accounts with Gazprombank.

The issue of replacing an inadequate supplier will be resolved fairly quickly in terms of gas as well. For example, oil, which will soon fall under the embargo, may be replaced in the near future by Iran.
"Iran is preparing to launch the country's largest oil field and could double its exports of 'black gold' to meet global demand," Moshen Hojastehmer, managing director of NOC (National Oil Company), said.
According to him, in the coming months, NOC plans to sign agreements with banks to finance the project to develop the second phase of the Azadegan field, which has reserves of 32 billion barrels and is one of the five largest on the planet.
For comparison: all of Russia's reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels, while the Ministry of Energy considers only a third of them profitable.

I don't understand these Green wankers and the losers who vote for them. They call themselves as the "Green Party" and in realty they have banned one of the most environmentally friendly source of energy (nuclear). Then they ruin the natural beauty by installing wind power turbines and solar panels stretching across thousands of acres of pristine land. And in case of Biden and the Democrats, it is another issue altogether. They want higher prices, so that their friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar can benefit out of it.

Shale oil producers in the US got a very painful disappointment a few years ago when oil was cheap and shale oil production became unprofitable. Now it's profitable again, but investment is in no hurry to return to the industry, because the "greens" in the US and Europe now have a very strong lobby. Their favorite mantra is renewable energy and they are full of contempt for fossil energy sources.

That "drop" is caused by two things and every nation could follow the same road as well. One of them is the fact that we have seen Germany decrease dependence by using less, they didn't need to use gas, but it was easy and available so they used it in some places, switch that to another method and you should drop it, not all the things you use gas for is a "must" gas usage thing.

Secondly they are getting it from other places now, not like Russia is the only nation, most famously Qatar has a ton as well. All of Europe, or even all of the world could end up doing this, and it would allow them to get better and depend a lot less on Russia.

The United States is a net exporter of LNG and it produces almost all the crude oil that is produced inside its borders. The United States is not actually weakening Russia. As a result of skyrocketing prices, Russia is witnessing an increase in profits and revenues although they are exporting less amount of oil and gas. And at the same time some of the shale gas producers in the United States have refrained from ramping up their production, for unknown reasons. For whatever reason, the Americans are playing a very negative role here.

World cannot shut doors to Russia - No other country can full fill the supply of oil. It is one of the largest oil producing country.
And America has done a great role to pull all the strings to weaken Russia. US has done so much damage to the world than Russia. I support peace - and Russia should stop all the brutality to the Ukraine.

1. The power of Siberia. In reality, the project can perform in comedy shows I won't tell you what the statements were and what the reality is, right?
Before the problems of 2021-2022, until Russia started having problems with gas supplies (and as you know, Russia has nowhere to store gas that is not redeemed), it began to look for ways to dispose of it. Otherwise, just either burn or conserve the deposits. This is where Siberia's potency came in handy. Why impotence - well, let's tell us what is the content of the declared 50 billion cubic meters, for which the contract was supposedly signed, but I won't say anything for now So, since Siberian impotence was essentially idle (no, no, some kind of gas was pumped through it, not 100% simple, but also far from the volumes under the "100% signed contract"), there was nowhere to put gas, a way out was quickly found - "fraternal China helped." I agreed to buy a certain amount of gas at the price of the market minus 30% That's all the deflated power of Siberia. Now, of course, the loading will go - it’s necessary to sell gas at a dumping price, which the EU refuses! But the payback period of the project flies to infinity

2. Of course, to the detriment of the domestic market, this has always been the case. I remember that in Krasnodar, my aunt lived almost in the very center of the city. Red Street. In 1982-1990, I personally remember how they suffered with bottled gas. Either it is not there, then it barely burns (diluted wildly). And I know that before she moved to a new apartment (about 2000+), there were problems with gas ... This is practice. And it's not deep...
Well, if almost half of the populated territories do not know what normal gasification is! Do you really want to say that now they will drop everything and pull pipelines through depressive, degrading regions?! I'm ready to be patient and watch this new "Santa Barbara", but I'm afraid that this will be the longest and really endless series

but finding alternative energy to replace energy such as oil or natural gas is not easy, there must be further research and of course it takes a long time and is expensive. Moreover the latest energy which will be an alternative does not necessarily have the same level of efficiency as the energy that exists today.

Well, I am a friend of renewable energy but I am also realistic. Europe, with its enormous hunger for energy, cannot supply itself alone. The only option would be nuclear energy, but it is neither renewable, nor does it produce radioactive waste, and it would continue to depend on uranium and plutonium from other countries. Only when hydrogen can be produced at an acceptable economic rate can Europe become energy independent, but I fear that will take a while.

Renewable energy should just be a better alternative other than stretching the African nations that don't have enough for their own sustainability. So far in terms of oil production, availability and supplies Russians cannot be replaced the only way to avoid direct deals with Russian oil is to source for alternative sources like Renewable energy or energy from waste products since electricity will be too expensive

I doubt there is somebody that can replace.
Russia is the main supplier of Gas worldwide and with what's happening, it seems that the price of oil will be higher that the usual. Africa doesn't have a lot of infrastructures only so maybe some countries might help them have some of it just to produce more gas but that isn't easy though.

I think the best solution for Europe is to find an alternative solution to it because right now, it seems that the Russia-Ukraine war will still go for months and it is affecting not only them but the whole world. I think Russia knows this already from the start that is why they aren't afraid to have a war against other countries like Ukraine. They know that sanctions will be imposed and that sanctions that imposed to them will have a negative to effect to the countries who imposed it.

To be precise, in Germany, the number of terminals for receiving liquefied natural gas is now zero. Currently, four terminals are being urgently built, the first should be commissioned at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023.