Topic: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? - page 17. (Read 5468 times)

Looks like you are having problems with comprehension. This is what I said:


The $20 billion figure is including gas and coal. Gazprom on average exports 10 to 15 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe every month and right now the Dutch TTF price is $1.027 per cubic meter. Even if I take a very conservative 60% profit margin, the net inflow amounts to $6 to $9 billion per month. And adding in coal, this figure should be close to $20 billion. And this is not my calculation. The source is IEA (International Energy Agency). Here:

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-is-earning-20-billion-per-month-in-oil-sales-as-higher-crude-prices-lift-export-revenue-50-says-iea/articleshow/91525171.cms
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-earning-20-billion-per-164652399.html

And one more thing. I underestimated the oil exports from Russia. They export 5 million barrels of crude and 3 million barrels of refined products every day. So that is a net export of 8 million barrels per day. Source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-do-you-replace-millions-of-barrels-of-russian-oil-a-day/2022/03/02/24efb006-9a0c-11ec-9987-9dceee62a3f6_story.html

Revenue from oil: 8 million barrels x $50 x 30 = $12 billion
Revenue from gas: $6 to $9 billion

You snatched out a small part of the big picture. I explain. In the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2022, the price of Urals oil is set at about $45. It seems that at a price of 82 dollars a barrel, it turns out 1.82 times more. Cool, yeah ? But then the nuances begin.
Once again, I did not just say that about the federal budget, especially since it is in deficit, i.e. does not cover all planned costs that were considered in 2021.

At the same time, we recall that in the same budget the calculations of foreign exchange earnings, which are then transformed into the ruble budget, are based on the dollar rate - 72 rubles per dollar. In total, we have 1 barrel = 3240 rubles. The ruble exchange rate is being actively artificially increased, and today the dollar exchange rate has fallen to 58 rubles. Or 82 * 58 = 4756 rubles. And this gives not x1.82 increase in income, but only x1.46 times. Do you feel how the "surplus profit" is melting?
The decline in EU oil purchases will definitely affect the price of Urals. And not positively. I think the reduction + forced dumping of prices (at the request of China, because it will buy out the surplus), will reduce additional profit to 0, and possibly lead to the failure of this income item.
And now add to the budget the costs of the war. I am sure that in 2021 they already knew that they would unleash a new terrorist operation in Ukraine. But the calculation was carried out for 3-4 weeks, and miserable losses (well, after all, "the second army in the world" ). Bottom line: for almost 90 days, the Russian "invincible" has suffered heavy losses in equipment, manpower, and ... from new sanctions! And these are daily expenses from the budget. not 28 planned days, but already 3 times longer, and many times higher than planned, daily losses.

The question is - and what will the final picture of the federal budget look like in the end, even with such oil income? You, I'm sure, perfectly understand how the overall final picture will look, and it will not be as positive as it seems if you look only at the price of oil, and do not take into account all the factors!

I will add one more thing - according to official statistics, since the beginning of 2022, 4 million people have already emigrated from Russia. I’ll clarify - in 5 months as many emigrated as in the previous 8 years! And it is most likely that people who are quite a productive layer left. This means that there will still be hundreds of billions of rubles of taxes not received.

Yes Yes Yes ! I also sometimes watch the "Show for the Brainless" from Solovyov and the like, in order to understand how the Russian world lives There, for 10 years, they have been saying that Europe is in shit, the United States has a couple of months left, because they were outplayed by the Kremlin's miserable likeness of Hitler, the ruble is strong and secured, the dollar and the euro are not secured by anything, Russia will destroy everyone to ashes with its strongest army ... Well, and other, regular, feverish nonsense of Russian propaganda
What is there in essence? Well, seriously - rewriting nonsense from Russian propaganda is, of course, cool, probably, maybe it even strengthens someone's self-esteem or something else, but everyone already knows where such funny fabulous statements come from Or you can have your thoughts, honest numbers, real events ?

Tell me, only with arguments - what will Russia remain on the globe of the earth as such until winter?

Told ya!
I don't know if you remember this but in the USSR time there was this joke

At the agricultural meeting of the oblast, every kolkhoz director came and issued his report to the inspector sent from Moscow:
- This year we have planted 1 000 sq km more, said the first
- This year we have planted 2 000 sq km more, the second...so on
By the time they were only two left suddenly the inspector realized that's the entire agricultural area of the oblast and asked the remaining two what they've done
- Comrade, we have converted all roads, gardens, and house roofs for agriculture and managed to plant 10 000 sq km more said one
- Comrade, since all the land in the Oblast was taken, said the last one for them, we have invaded Poland and planted there 10 000 sq km of corn for the motherland! 

And look what we have here:


So if you make $300 million a day in a month you make 12 billion, because as we know the months in Russia have 40 days!
And adding to this "math" the fact that he already said gas revenues are 20 billion a year, which means 1.6 billion/mth it would mean Russia is going to make more profits from coal than from the entire gas and oil industry! How? Majic!!!!! 
Or maybe in Russia the year has 15 months?


Here is another great one for you, 300*30 is 9 000 not 12 000.
You're going to thank me later!

Let's not forget the fact that not all the oil and gas producing countries are rich. Russia itself is not rich, and a large part of the population is either lower middle class or poor. Then we have countries such as Venezuela, Iraq, Angola and Nigeria. These are some of the largest oil exporters, but the majority of the population lives in poverty. On the other hand, Japan imports close to 100% of the oil and gas they consume and still they are one of the richest countries in the world. So there is no guarantee that being oil rich improves the financial situation in your country.

Great calculations - that is one of the reasons that oil producing countries are always dominant.
i wish my country discovers oil reserves too and our nation becomes rich and progressive! Ameen

A profit of $60 per barrel still means a lot. Let's take a conservative figure of $50 per barrel, after taking in to account the profit margin for oil producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil. If they export 6 million barrels per day of crude oil or products such as diesel, then the net profit is $300 million, which amounts to around $12 billion per month. Add in the profits from gas and coal, and you will get a figure of around $20 billion per month, which is in line with the estimates from most of the experts around the world. And don't forget that a year ago, oil was trading at $40 per barrel.

Be so kind as to provide the original link where the value of RUSSIAN oil in transactions with China is indicated, as you indicate? I will say in advance - you will not provide it, because there will be the Market value of RUSSIAN oil (Urals), and it is noticeably lower than the figure you indicated. Oh yes, and minus what China orders. No, Russia will most likely announce no more than 5-10% to the public. What for ? Everything is very simple - another lie to form another fake image of "stability", because everyone should again be afraid that Russia will have a high income and sanctions are not afraid of it. Well, this is such a country - I didn’t lie, consider the day wasted in vain! In reality, it will be 25-30% if not more. and now we look at the market (I took today's data 20/05/2022):
Brent (Brent Crude Oil) 112.65 (USD/bbl)
WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) 112.70 (USD/bbl)
Urals Med 82.85 (USD/bbl)
That is, optimistically, it is about 60 dollars per barrel, while the cost of production is about 20-25. And 60 dollars is by no means 90-100 dollars In a word - there is no need to repeat the methodology of Russian propaganda and manipulate the numbers. Which are also easy to check!

The winter is coming.

Europe is in deep shit. She was unable to agree on the sixth package of sanctions and received an internal split. The packages with sanctions are over, there is nothing more to put pressure on Russia. And Europe has nothing to pay for the supplied gas, euros are immediately converted into rubles on the stock exchange and the euro exchange rate is already flying to hell. Russia no longer needs either dollars or euros - what to buy with them if there are sanctions everywhere? Burn your euros and warm yourself with them, and also eat them and fertilize the earth. This is a fiasco.

What are you?! There is no alternative? Seriously !? Seriously, don't laugh! Tip - google for the phrase "countries of oil suppliers" and then "countries of gas suppliers", you will be very surprised, believe me!
Regarding the "horror story" - if Russia stops selling oil and gas. I will now give an example, it will be a little rough, but it will convey the situation very accurately. Russia that will stop selling gas and oil = a person whose rectum and ureter were sealed How long do you think a person will live like this? So Russia will rot from the inside. For information - Russia does not have enough oil and gas storage facilities. The way out is either stupidly burning what was produced, essentially burning money, or mothballing active fields and losing the volume of oil / gas produced. Yes, the most important thing is to lose it for a very long time, because. without Western technologies, Russia will not be able to reactivate the deposits, because even in this critical industry, russia is technologically backward and has always used western technology to explore and extract these resources.

OK.. I analyzed the article again. The price of $100 includes elevated costs of insurance and freight. The Russian government is selling the oil for around $80 per barrel. A number of relatively unknown traders and shipping companies are making use of this situation and reaping huge profits for themselves. But the Russians are happy, since they are getting around $55 to $60 as net profit for every barrel they sell (the cost of production is estimated at $20 to $25 per barrel). And the $100 figure is not speculation. It is what the refineries in India and China are specifying as the actual price of imported crude for tax purposes.

Russia's budget for 2022 was drawn up based on the price of Ural oil of $44 per barrel, with the dollar exchange rate of 72 rubles. Even taking into account the discount and the significantly strengthened ruble, Russia is now receiving super profits from the oil trade.

Europe has never lived as badly as under Putin.

If only people would understand what they are reading, and it is so damn simple.
But of course, when you're rushing to post propaganda, you're omitting facts just like Russian have forgotten their armor before going to war.

From your own article:


The way things look, that's the only thing he can still hope, the end point seems to be eunuch slave.

China is ramping up their imports of energy and food by as much as they possibly can. They are not replacing one thing for another not to mention that since none of these countries use the Western payment systems and do not publicize their trades, nobody has any idea about their size or the changes. What you read in the media has been pure speculation that has been far off the mark, one small stats released by the Chinese a couple of months ago proved they are 10 times higher than what they were speculating.

Is it a discount if you are selling something at $100+ which you pushed up from $70 yourself? I don't think so.
Not to mention that even $100 is a speculation as I mentioned above.

As the world's most populous country and the world's factory, China is benefiting greatly from the wars of Russia and Europe. With this cooperation will help Russia reduce the burden if Europe enforces sanctions on Russian oil and gas but that won't happen anytime soon. Europe has decided to spend $220 billion to completely reduce its dependence on gas from Russia. Let's see what they do next.

Looks like Russia will be Chinas bitch before the year is out.

Putin bowing to China’s cash.

Even more good news for Russia:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-in-talks-with-russia-to-buy-oil-for-strategic-reserves/articleshow/91668799.cms
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19/more-russian-oil-going-east-squeezes-iranian-crude-sales-to-china

China is also stepping up it's purchases of Russian oil and gas. They don't make detailed numbers public (unlike the case with India), so it is very difficult to track how much Russian oil and gas is actually going to China. According to Al Jazeera, Iranian oil exports to China have decreased significantly as the refineries there are now preferring Russian crude. And more importantly, Russian crude is being purchased by China at a discount of around $9 per barrel (which means a price of ~$100 per barrel). At this price, the Russian treasury will earn a tax revenue of at least $20 billion per month.

At first place it is silly thought that someone else will fulfill supply of gas and oil. There is no alternative and world has to rethink on getting good terms with Russia.
Every country tried to put sanction on Russia. What if Russia halt the oil and gas supply to the world? Every nation has their agenda. I am not sure if this silly decision of cutting the terms with Russia would work.

Ok, let's assume that once again you do not slip a fake (although you will surprise me greatly if this is the case )
Then please refer to the information about the "long-term contract for the supply of gas, which the EU refused, between Russia, China and India"?
I remember what kind of hysteria it was when the "impotence of Siberia" was launched - and they say China invested tens of billions, and a contract for 100,500 years, and much more. In fact, it turned out that China did not invest, but lent Russia, at considerable interest and renting huge areas of the taiga to China for 49 years. Oh yes, and how it turned out later that China did not sign the supply agreement on the terms that the Russians habitually lied to, deceiving themselves
In total, it’s not an investment, but a loan + deforestation, and a contract, but a small amount of gas, at a price that Russia has classified, which means that China indicated a penny price for Russia, and Russia agreed. This is not a discount, this is a coercion of a strong player in relation to a weak one
And so - I'm waiting for links to information about long-term contracts Russia-China, Russia-India for gas supplies. Any source except Russian, of course

UPD Yes, and of course the contracts signed after the start of a new phase of the terrorist war in Ukraine, after which there were problems with the sale of gas to the EU. That is, there is no need to issue any old contracts, for contracts under which gas supplies to China and India began last month

China is a partner of Russia, I'm not sure if we could consider the country an "anti-Russia" but I do think China has its own motive also in supporting Putin's quest. Xi would not act if his country isn't also going to benefit.

Russia is much closer to China. Just like India I think its only logical to buy oil from Russia by train than shipping oil from elsewhere. India and China has tons of manufacturing companies that needs gas and oil. Pretty sure they couldn't afford to lose Russia's discounted price.