The ups/downs still seem to be a cross between random & speculation. Last year just before the fall I slid everything into bch, granted I still lost because I bought in at peak 16k. I'm only down 50%, but gaining ground trading it when its not stagnant.
I hope you still HODL your coins because at the height of the peak this year, we have breach $13k already but slid back just above $10k today. But no worries though, bitcoin is really recovering this year as compare to most altcoins in the market.
All influenced by demand, this is the difference between crypto and other commodities. Prices can change quickly even become worthless.
It should be understood before making any investment in crypto or trading crypto.
Of course it's based on supply and demand, however there is still the market sentiments that can play a huge role here. If there is good news around, demand is going to pick up and vice versa.