Topic: Why does it keep falling ? - page 2. (Read 9431 times)

Almost there 

Imagine in the next few years , this question from 10 years ago will be happening ?

damn how lucky those who bought back from that same year as they have not only story to tell but also experience to share with their Grandchildren .

How True.   

I had to do a double check as i thought he was talking about ltc... lolz

You are freaking me out necro ing such an old thread ..I suppose the "stop falling" theme is appropriate :/ 

I wonder where evolve went to.

A lottery ticket is a poor analogy. We can accurately guess the odds - perhaps they are even published - and we know that the odds are against us. But unless collecting bitcoin for their utility, a rational holder must believe the (chance of loss times)(amount lost) < (chance of gains)(amount gained). A lotto investor throws rational risk tolerance to the wind but a bitcoin junkie is an existentialist who believes he knows better than the market. Because the odds are not published, we can not say whether he is right until after he sells.

I think you missed the real reason why they are falling.

The reason is!!!!



Satoshi Namamoto (AMD/ATI Marketing CEO) have announced a successful end to his marketing project with all the 5XXX and 6xxx cards sold out and new 7XXX ones that are different in design. and they are closing the bitcoin project!

You can't know whether the lottery ticket you're thinking of buying is going to be the winning one, in much the same way as you have no idea how much your bitcoins will be worth in a few months' time. Choosing to buy a lottery ticket is actually more analagous to leaving bitcoins from mining unconverted than to converting them to USD.

You'll be dead in a hundred years' time. More importantly, no-one just stuffs dollars under their mattress and just leaves them there for a century, and while the dollar may be losing value it's at a slow and consistent rate. If the dollar was losing its value at the rate bitcoins have been lately there'd be mass panic.

I don't disagree with your point; but it's not as bleak as you say.

A friend of mine was trying to organize an event in Las Vegas from the UK.  He (I personally think unwisely) used paypal for transferring money internationally.  Paypal suddenly decided to semi freeze the account, with the organisation money already transferred in.  There was no way to get it out (i.e. to return to the initial state) and no way to pay for the things they wanted to pay for.  Note: there was no scam going on, this was someone trying to pay for things with his own money.  Paypal wrecked a planned Las Vegas event because they happen to be the man in the middle.

While being told that story I couldn't help thinking that Bitcoin has already won; PayPal are hated, and they keep doing things that make them more hated.  Even if Bitcoin had nothing for sale other than national currencies it would be incredibly useful.

So.. in answer to your questions (1) I can transfer value anywhere in the world, close to instantaneously and reliably.  Regardless of the current exchange rate -- there just has to be enough volume.  (2) Easier than with a credit card?  Well, it's easier to perform these transfers without having 2.5% gouged from you.

(3) I admit, it's not quite everday, general-public types of use, but those will come in time.

I, and another friend are already using bitcoins to settle those minor between-friends debts that friends often have.  "Lend me 20 quid would you, I haven't been to a cash machine yet."  "No need to lend, here's a couple of BTC (tip, tap, tip tap on smartphone) and we're even."  "You get the cinema tickets", etc, etc.  If I can just persuade my friend the landlord at the local pub to take bitcoins that will be 99% of my weekly cash needs replaced with bitcoin.

I actually think that the bitcoin community obsesses a bit much about there not yet being lots of vendors that we can point at.  Bitcoin is already better than cash/card for a great many purposes that don't have anything to do with buying products.

As I write this, bitcoin's value is struggling to stay above US$13.  If you're wondering why bitcoin's value is slowly but surely deflating you only need to ask these questions:

1. What can I do with bitcoins?  What can I buy?
2. What can I buy that's easier with bitcoins than using a credit card?
3. How does the general public view bitcoins?  Do they see it as a get-rich-quick scheme?

The answer to all three questions does not bode well for bitcoin's short term value.

If I work at paid employment for dollars (mining), and save some of my net income to spend later (not selling), therefore I am speculating dollars following the above logic.  Better go and tell the savings industry they are rampant speculators  

Well, hells bells. Imagine how much they are missing out on by non buying the lottery ticket with the winning number. Opportunity cost is what you lose by not doing the next best thing. What makes you think you know what the next best thing is?

If you don't want to add to a losing position, then why the hell would you want dollars?  They've lost 96% value in the last hundred years.

Right. If you're mining, but not selling, you're speculating.

I think you might be suffering from a misconception. The amount miners are risking by holding onto their bitcoins isn't their electricity costs, it's how much they could make if they sold immediately because that's the amount they potentially lose out on. (This is a fairly common fallacy; from an economic perspective it's irrational and no-one should act this way, but people don't act the way economists think they should.)

We accept your apology.

The same way we're afraid of you?  Loser. 

Wow. Another stalwart among the Bitcoin die hards. You guys are a smart bunch. If I was the Fed, I'd be very afraid.

Oh? I like how you summarized it - since it was so elegant. I thought 'elegant' ideas would be easily expressed?

Oops, I see, you're just treading in someone's footsteps, like an annoying toy dog. Here rover, fetch!

So are you saying that trolls are folks who are able to shut your argument down completely and elegantly? That "troll" left a boot mark on your forehead when he stomped you.

it's not a losing position unless your electricity costs now more than you can get for your coins now.  There's a reason why we account for capital costs and expenses separately.

I (and many others) define speculation as exchanging an accepted currency for some commodity at some price hoping for a larger amount of the original (or equivalent) currency in the future.  The key point here being: miners are increasing their speculative position when they hoard.  Adding to a losing position.