Why does it keep falling ? - page 3.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: Nagle on July 12, 2011, 10:17:29 PM

Quote from: grod on July 12, 2011, 10:05:11 PM

It is a little amusing how one of the adages of successful trading is "Never add to a losing position." In effect that's what miners do when hoarding instead of selling as prices decline.

Right. If you're mining and not selling, you're speculating.

You're speculating either way. If you sell immediately, you're speculating that the price won't go up. If you bought gear specifically for mining, you're speculating with your capital also. Even if you're mining with equipment you already owned, you're speculating with your time and your electricity.

You're speculating if you buy, hold or sell dollars. Nothing is without risk. You have to judge the risk/reward ratio, your risk tolerance, and your time window. It's all relative.

Jaime Frontero

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Quote from: Houdini on July 01, 2011, 05:19:12 AM

For the last two weeks every larger fall in value has been followed by an equivalent rise in value after it, only a bit slower (taking hours instead of minutes). I figured it was boomerang-like with a reasonable chance, and therefore safe to invest in.
Now the bitcoin has fallen from ~17 to about ~16.5 and it looks like it's slowly falling further instead of rising ? What do you figure is going on and why, and when will it be back to 17+ ? And should those who have BTC sell out in expectance of an even greater fall or wait for it to rise ?

i've emphasized your problem right there...

aside from the fact that nothing is ever safe to invest in, you're just looking at things in a far too short-sighted fashion. if you're not in Bitcoin for the long term, you're going to lose your shirt. and if you're not participating in the economy (i.e., buying stuff from merchants), that's what you've earned.

now... go to http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/ . set it to log scale, one year. look at the first couple weeks of june, this year. look at what happened before, and at what has happened since. got it?

now... take a look at the first couple weeks of november 2010. and at the befores and afters. see any similarities?

it's a long term play, Houdini. if you got no patience, get out.

Nagle

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Quote from: grod on July 12, 2011, 10:05:11 PM

It is a little amusing how one of the adages of successful trading is "Never add to a losing position." In effect that's what miners do when hoarding instead of selling as prices decline.

Right. If you're mining and not selling, you're speculating.

grod

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It is a little amusing how one of the adages of successful trading is "Never add to a losing position." In effect that's what miners do when hoarding instead of selling as prices decline.

Back to the OP: $30/btc caused lots and lots and lots of people to buy mining gear. 5 series ATI cards pretty much sold out world over and we're looking at over a tripling of difficulty over a month -- 2/3 of the current mining capacity is less than a month old.

Now the people with a 20% credit card loans for the hardware (judging from mining forum posts many of the new rigs were built very inefficiently) and power bills to pay are sweating blood and selling everything they mine at 15% of their original profit calculations. I am wagering a much higher portion of mined bitcoins is being sold rather than hoarded today vs a month ago.

Plus people with a large amount of bitcoins would be foolish not to sell a portion at these levels and diversify and/or reinvest.

Oh, and finally: everyone is still very bullish while prices decline. Many people expect a $100 price by end of year. We're nowhere near a capitulation/bottom/stability.

TraderTimm

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Quote from: Jalum on July 12, 2011, 04:52:21 PM

But hey, don't mind me.

Trust me when I say - I don't.

Got to keep your troll quota up, eh?

Jalum

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Quote from: TraderTimm on July 10, 2011, 05:21:17 PM

What if everyone ran to the haberdashery, what would happen to hat prices?!

If the only purpose of hats is to sell them for real money, then people would have lots of hats until they decided to sell them for money. At which point the bagholders (hatholders in your example) would subsidize the profits of everyone who got out before them. When the discussion is literally that you should invest more money into something so the value of it doesn't go down naturally, you're the sucker.

But hey, don't mind me. Go invest more dollars so your bitcoins don't lose dollar value. That always works in the real world.

TraderTimm

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Quote from: Jalum on July 10, 2011, 12:31:03 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 12:03:09 PM

We could easily maintain that even with little growth until the bitcoin/block reward is reduced, but it's highly unlikely to be necessary.

Oooo are we at the bargaining stage of grief now? So now the discussion is how if all the bitcoiners just spent a little money to prop up their "investments", everything would work out? Seriously?

What if everyone ran to the haberdashery, what would happen to hat prices?!

The problem with being a successful troll is you have to work at it. Really, you can come up with something better than that, you pedantic jackanape.

wareen

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 12:40:18 PM

Why are you even here if you think it's all going down? If you don't like the party, you can leave. You think you're ruining it, but you're actually just providing the entertainment. Thanks for that.

Yes! Finally it's Jalum time again Cheesy

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: Jalum on July 10, 2011, 12:31:03 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 12:03:09 PM

We could easily maintain that even with little growth until the bitcoin/block reward is reduced, but it's highly unlikely to be necessary.

Oooo are we at the bargaining stage of grief now? So now the discussion is how if all the bitcoiners just spent a little money to prop up their "investments", everything would work out? Seriously?

I could liquidate my entire holdings today and still book a considerable profit. Why would I have any grief? I'm crying all the way to the bank.

Why are you even here if you think it's all going down? If you don't like the party, you can leave. You think you're ruining it, but you're actually just providing the entertainment. Thanks for that.

Jalum

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 12:03:09 PM

We could easily maintain that even with little growth until the bitcoin/block reward is reduced, but it's highly unlikely to be necessary.

Oooo are we at the bargaining stage of grief now? So now the discussion is how if all the bitcoiners just spent a little money to prop up their "investments", everything would work out? Seriously?

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: zby on July 02, 2011, 08:19:02 AM

Quote from: hello_good_sir on July 02, 2011, 07:34:05 AM

This is really a decimal point issue. Right now mining produces 300 coins per hour. In order to keep the price stable new people need to buy that many per hour. Basically unless we increase the number of people inflation will eat our money. We can't get new people because $17 seems like too much. It is a psychological thing. If the decimal point were moved two places we could tap whole new markets. People with fancy phones would drop $10 to try it out. "Oh I can get 60 bitcoins for $10, I'll try that". "Oh I can get half of a bitcoin for $10, that doesn't sound fun"".

Yeah - 300 coins per hour - 7000 per day - that is about $100 000 in current prices. On one hand this is only about $2 daily for every mtgox user - I think most of us can afford that, but I am skeptical about the will to regularly put these $50 each month.

Many are investing 10X that amount and new accounts are being registered all the time. I don't thinkit's unreasonable to assume that there's at least 40,000 people either mining and not selling, selling goods/services on line and saving the proceeds or buying on other exchanges. That means ~1/day required.

We could easily maintain that even with little growth until the bitcoin/block reward is reduced, but it's highly unlikely to be necessary.

kiba

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Personally I'm getting out now while there is still a decent profit on it. The bubble is bursting.

After the crash people thought they were buying in low and that kept it at it's price, now it's dropping to it's real value. It would be stupid to pretend to know what the real value is, but it's certainly not $17.

You mention a bitcoin bubble? You get a bitcoin bubble comic!

zby

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Quote from: hello_good_sir on July 02, 2011, 07:34:05 AM

This is really a decimal point issue. Right now mining produces 300 coins per hour. In order to keep the price stable new people need to buy that many per hour. Basically unless we increase the number of people inflation will eat our money. We can't get new people because $17 seems like too much. It is a psychological thing. If the decimal point were moved two places we could tap whole new markets. People with fancy phones would drop $10 to try it out. "Oh I can get 60 bitcoins for $10, I'll try that". "Oh I can get half of a bitcoin for $10, that doesn't sound fun"".

Yeah - 300 coins per hour - 7000 per day - that is about $100 000 in current prices. On one hand this is only about $2 daily for every mtgox user - I think most of us can afford that, but I am skeptical about the will to regularly put these $50 each month.

hello_good_sir

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This is really a decimal point issue. Right now mining produces 300 coins per hour. In order to keep the price stable new people need to buy that many per hour. Basically unless we increase the number of people inflation will eat our money. We can't get new people because $17 seems like too much. It is a psychological thing. If the decimal point were moved two places we could tap whole new markets. People with fancy phones would drop $10 to try it out. "Oh I can get 60 bitcoins for $10, I'll try that". "Oh I can get half of a bitcoin for $10, that doesn't sound fun"".

Alex Beckenham

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Alex Beckenham on July 01, 2011, 09:23:37 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I didn't say anything about selling for $17/BTC...I sold all my coins for $16.1/BTC and I still think it's way overvalued.

Well, I should say thanks then... I bought a couple of those.

No...thank YOU.

Sold them to you 16.1, and bought back at 15.2 overnight.

Happy days Grin

Congratulations. Meanwhile I just keep buying.

PatrickHarnett

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Quote from: Nagle on July 01, 2011, 12:59:02 PM

At the current price and difficulty level, mining no longer really pays. Many complaints on the mining forums. Those with sunk costs in hardware may still be making some money, but it no longer pays to buy new hardware for mining. Most of the "miners" don't count the cost of floor space and staffing, but now, even as a marginal cost business, it's not that attractive. Miners are dropping out.

Miners are not dropping out - growth is still above 1% per day (in any other market, that is HUGE). http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ Growth has slowed - that is all you can say at the moment.

markm

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What "should" be happening, if the various "nations" I have been developing "national currencies" for have any useful insight in the ways they plan to try to get their "national currencies" up and running, is...

1) Make sure to have a truly significant portion of the total number of coins so far made at some point in time.

2) Try to obtain a truly significant portion of the other currencies that people use to buy your type of coins.

3) Once you have truly significant "reserves" of "other currencies", start trying to "support" your type of coins by buying back, at less than you sold them for, any that anyone wants to sell.

This assumes the "nation" creating the currency actually plans to stick around and actually support its currency, instead of being just a fly by night nth-world micronation established mostly for the purpose of trying to 'con' other nations into accepting its ponz^H^H^H^Hcurrency long enough to raise a pile of loot to fade into the sunset with.

-MarkM-

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

my guess is that this weeks flat trading scared a few speculators into selling, dropping the price into the low 16's yesterday...thats causing a ripple effect and now there is a panic sale that will prob drive it down to mid or low 15's

i actually wish i had more usd in dwolla or on the exchange to buy more today...i spent my reserve cash on the low prices yesterday......my guess is the price will settle at 14-15 and go back up to 16-17 in the next few days.

in any case, im keeping my money in....i could be wrong, but if i am, i haven't lost too much (never gamble what you cant afford to lose Wink

)

Nagle

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At the current price and difficulty level, mining no longer really pays. Many complaints on the mining forums. Those with sunk costs in hardware may still be making some money, but it no longer pays to buy new hardware for mining. Most of the "miners" don't count the cost of floor space and staffing, but now, even as a marginal cost business, it's not that attractive. Miners are dropping out. In this situation, the difficulty should creep back down, but that happens slowly. Right now, Bitcoins seem to be priced near the cost of producing them. That's the closest thing to a fundamental this market has.

The buy-side market depth on Mt. Gox is shrinking. They had around 40,000BTC of buy orders a few days ago, but now there are only 20,000. This may simply reflect people pulling cash out of Mt. Gox. Probably a wise move. Now that things have quieted down, the price is creeping back down into the $15 range on very thin trading.

Of course, there's no rational market for pricing Bitcoins. It's a pure speculation.

Jaagu

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Personally I'm getting out now while there is still a decent profit on it. The bubble is bursting.
After the crash people thought they were buying in low and that kept it at it's price, now it's dropping to it's real value. It would be stupid to pretend to know what the real value is, but it's certainly not $17.

Hey, lardycake, don't pretend you ever had any bitcoin! I've been watching you and other trolls here. You better shut up.

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