.
so you're saying there is a new status quo and ethereum will adjust its price to be low permanently? i think ethereum buyers are irrational people in the sense that they are willing to pay for it when it is way overpriced. but that's just my opinion.
greedy people are irrational. but if your willing to buy high sell low. you will lose and there is only so many times you can lose before your out of the game and not participating in the pump.. there are only so many idiot traders. and once they are out they are out.
then the pumps end and corrections begin. where only the smart traders are left
..
they wish they could do that, the sellers that is. more likely they will be selling for a big loss. nft market tanked lately i heard. so anyone that thinking they gonna get back their investment in some junky nft maybe they be unpleasantly surprised.
the NFT market is fake.. a huge majority of NFT are not true trades..
they are the creator selling to himself for a high price to fake high price to try to set precedent of expectation. so that when true buyers come along the true buy is suppose to also pay high/higher..
but remember if you create art. and put it into auction. and then you, wearing a different hat buy your own art.. that money as a buyer, returns to you. so it cost you nothing.. yet you manage to set a fake price..
so when a true buyer comes along to buy the art from you(wearing the hat) you are not losing anything from selling at a lower price that your fake trade before
but its this lower price that is actually the price discovery phase.. not the fake ones the creators are trying to promote
and thats the phase NFT are in . creators losing nothing because they are only selling to themselves...
then their next trade that appears to be a loss is the actual first true transaction of profit
its the 3rd transaction.. the duped buyer trying to sell.. that would be the true first losers.
this game used to happen alot in ebay when a new collectable british legal tender metal 50p piece was released. collectors buying them from the mint at 50p:50p would go to ebay and then sell it to themselves for £20(40x) to try to set precedent that these collectible 50p coins were actually worth 40x.. no one fell for that either.. apart from a couple idiots. so the trader again sells to himself for £10(20x) and then £5(10x) trying to fake price discovery until he can convince a true buyer of a price point they are willing to buy
i always felt eth was a bit overpriced when it hit into the 3k range and then you had people saying eth would go up to $20,000 soon and stuff like that. some people even said it will overtake bitcoin price.
how could anyone ever believe that?
those shouting "it will got to $20k, it will overtake BTC" are not wanna be buyers .. they are people already bought into ETH and wanting to pump it so they can exit at profit.. yes everyone wants a 5x but not willing to wait years for actual value(in deflationary currencies)..
so those buying in at $3.5k of a non deflationary. are just greedy and wanting quick pumps and dumps to exit ASAP, so they will shout out numbers like $20k. because thats their exit price the price they want other people to pump it to so the screamer can exit
yep.. in bitcoin those shouting $100k, $250k. are not shouting out the prices they are willing to buy in at.. they are shouting the Xx factor amount they personally want to exit at where they want to try to push others to buy in excessively too.. but as we seen.. it never reached $100k+ because yep there are real underlying cost windows involved that topped out at $70k last year
but again. if you look at the total users as a whole. there is a limit to any market where the overall top limit reaches a peak that even the dumbest yet-to-be buyer just gives up and says 'no, thats too high'
meaning the pumper loses..
not meaning to go off topic about ethereum prices but it does tie into our discussion about price and why is price important. to ethereum users i dont think it is. they would buy it if it was $20,000 or $20. to them they don't care. i'm not even sure some of them understands the inflationary model of ethereum how it was never a fixed supply and there's already like over 100 million eth in circulation, way more than bitcoin. how could it ever go higher than bitcoin in price if that's the case? because it has more use cases? well it better have alot of them or alot of gullible people.
wrong
even the dumbest yet to be buyer has his limits. and there are not an infinite amount of dumb buyers.. so there is always a market top. where dumb users dilute out until there are none left
there is always a point where the speculative bubble bursts
yes when something is new and misunderstood this bubble can be as much as 100x. but once those dumb people and pumpers lose, they dont play so risky next cycle/time.
you can see how that played out in bitcoin
first pump was .$0.30-$30 (100x) but that then corrected down to reasonable closer to value of $2.50
(that period was trigger of first GPU mining where people screamed 'costs and difficulty going to 100x') which sparked the speculative price jump in days. the actual difficulty didnt jump 100x in days so ofcourse the bubble diddt last that month..
it took another 12+ months for the actual cost/diff to jump to the 100x
which is why $30 did hit again until 2013
next cycle seen a jump of far less than 100x.
and latest one was less than 10x
it takes time to weed out the weak treaders that emotional trade. where only logical traders are left and then new traders follow the logical path as they learn from their peers bad experiences
.....
because as you say eth has no supply limit. it will take time for traders to realise the new cost change and then get hurt by speculative bubble pumps.. until they get into rational/logical value:price trading range
but long story short.. dont expect ethereum to remain in the bubble speculative price range its in now of 20x+. it will shrink over time
...
i have to admit before the merge.. i personally thought traders were smarter and prepared before the merge for the impending cost reduction.. but it seems they will learn the hard slow way, and i didnt realise how many greedy idiots there were in ethereum.. oh well their loss. they will learn.. the signs and data and indicators were there..
they will an d have learned the hard way