Topic: Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? - page 2. (Read 4643 times)
August 18, 2013, 03:44:47 PM
If everyone stop mining and start buying BTC instead of investing in mining, price will skyrocket. Maybe this is one of the reasons for the late spike.
August 18, 2013, 03:26:19 PM
Simple version:
you always have the option of simply buying Bitcoins so for a miner to be more profitable it has to return MORE bitcoins than it purchase price.
you always have the option of simply buying Bitcoins so for a miner to be more profitable it has to return MORE bitcoins than it purchase price.
Correct. It was not the most optimal decision for the best ROI. I'm chalking up the difference in returns to the value of the fun of having the unit, tinkering with it and it being a conversational piece. There's definitely a luxury non-investment component to my decision.
It's sort of like people who raise their own coop of chickens for eggs. They'll never be able to produce eggs as cheaply as efficient factory-farms or even big cage-free organic farms, but they do it anyway because it's kind of fun to make your own.
August 17, 2013, 03:21:35 PM
I paid cash for a BFL 60 gh/s unit at a pretty heavy markup in USD. While I don't think the unit will ever generate the number of bitcoins I could have bought by investing that money directly in bitcoins instead of the unit, I do expect the USD value of my BTC will eventually exceed what I paid.
So you will lose funds. You could have bought BTC instead.
If you buy a miner (a device which produces BTC) it doesn't matter what currency you spend it has an equivelent price in BTC.
If the price if 1 BTC and over the life of the miner (becomes becoming obsolete and going dark) it produces 0.99 BTC net (after electrical cost) then you lost. You could have instead just held or bought 1 BTC and had 1 BTC. The future exchange rate can't improve your return.
Simple version:
you always have the option of simply buying Bitcoins so for a miner to be more profitable it has to return MORE bitcoins than it purchase price.
August 17, 2013, 03:16:31 PM
I paid cash for a BFL 60 gh/s unit at a pretty heavy markup in USD. While I don't think the unit will ever generate the number of bitcoins I could have bought by investing that money directly in bitcoins instead of the unit, I do expect the USD value of my BTC will eventually exceed what I paid.
August 17, 2013, 09:34:28 AM
Thanks to networkgeek24 for his reply to my PM, regarding this Mining Calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/#. Here is a great description regarding the depreciation field I asked about above.
So, when you look at what people are saying regarding difficulty increasing, getting into mining (outside of maybe large group buys delivered ON TIME), will rarely return the initial value.
Next level here (60 million) http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate or here (67 million) http://dot-bit.org/tools/difficulty_bitcoin.txt
Some nice links on calculated difficulty predictions, and it seems like most predictions are between 200 & 500 million for December:
Google Spreadsheet (200-300 million difficulty). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c#gid=8
Google Spreadsheet thread (400-500 million difficulty) - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050
BFL Forum https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bitcoin-discussion/3964-tracking-bitcoin-difficulty-changes.html
IAS
Quote from: networkgeek24
The considering reduction part means that if you consider the "Diff. increase per day" calculation into the mix you earnings will be reduced. So it may say break even is 200 days, but consider reduction (taking difficulty increases into account) you may never break even.
So basically the fields are:
Break-even - calculates break even amount if the difficulty figure were to stay static
... considering reduction - calculates break even amount if difficulty figure increases
Income/planned time - calculates your assumed income if the difficulty figure were to stay static
... considering reduction - calculates break even amount if difficulty figure increases
Basically you always want to take difficulty increases into account, and for most products ROI is never achievable.
So basically the fields are:
Break-even - calculates break even amount if the difficulty figure were to stay static
... considering reduction - calculates break even amount if difficulty figure increases
Income/planned time - calculates your assumed income if the difficulty figure were to stay static
... considering reduction - calculates break even amount if difficulty figure increases
Basically you always want to take difficulty increases into account, and for most products ROI is never achievable.
So, when you look at what people are saying regarding difficulty increasing, getting into mining (outside of maybe large group buys delivered ON TIME), will rarely return the initial value.
Next level here (60 million) http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate or here (67 million) http://dot-bit.org/tools/difficulty_bitcoin.txt
Some nice links on calculated difficulty predictions, and it seems like most predictions are between 200 & 500 million for December:
Google Spreadsheet (200-300 million difficulty). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c#gid=8
Google Spreadsheet thread (400-500 million difficulty) - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050
BFL Forum https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bitcoin-discussion/3964-tracking-bitcoin-difficulty-changes.html
IAS
August 16, 2013, 07:07:26 PM
For me, it is the Hobby aspect... and an addiction to seeing my hashrate constantly increase. 
I bought 2 ASICMINER sticks just to have them while I wait for my 'bigger' hardware orders - I like the blinking lights and the hashing graph...
August 16, 2013, 07:02:02 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills.
August 14, 2013, 10:37:58 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills.
August 14, 2013, 10:21:43 AM
2 BEs@5watt give roughly the same amount of hashpower as an overclocked 7970 @ 250 watt. It's all about how much power you consume vs how much you can hash. For me it's just an intermediate reinvestment moving from GPU,
This.
I'm spending a few BTC replacing my GPUs with USB Erupters.
4 USB sticks using 10W are doing 1.2GH/s - they're plugged in to a USB hub that sits on top of my workstation (an i3-3220T machine) - the PC AND the USB sticks are using less than 90W in total. They're not deafeningly loud, and aren't adding a bucket load of heat to the house. They're replacing 2x7950 and a 6970. 90W vs nearly 1kW.
The BEs are cooled with a single 120mm fan (salvaged from a dead PSU) blowing past them, which is running off an old Netgear router PSU, all stuck to an old Moduvent from a Fractal Design case (plastic with foam backing).
I'll be selling the 7950 cards soon, and going by my previous GPU sales, I'm not going to lose any money on them as they were bought used off eBay. The 6970 I just sold not only mined me about £300 worth of BTC in it's life, but it sold for £10 more than I paid for it. The 7950 should break even, so again the BTC they produced have paid for the BEs, and anything the BEs make is pure profit from now on.
Then there's the boxes of fans, the piles of big PC tower cases, the 1kW PSU....all that will be going on eBay, hopefully again making back what I paid.
Nice story, but what about guys without that story and just buying erupters or blades, etc? I really think the miners need to be sold with some resemblance of a profit in mind. (The larger ones are but outside of GB's are prohibitively expensive for your average Joe.) With a high BTC price, yes they will be very profitable for a short while as then you can be sure more miners will suddenly be made.
I'm still wondering about what networksgeek24 said above. Anyone with an understanding?
Thanks for the replies,
Its about sharing
August 14, 2013, 07:33:41 AM
2 BEs@5watt give roughly the same amount of hashpower as an overclocked 7970 @ 250 watt. It's all about how much power you consume vs how much you can hash. For me it's just an intermediate reinvestment moving from GPU,
This.
I'm spending a few BTC replacing my GPUs with USB Erupters.
4 USB sticks using 10W are doing 1.2GH/s - they're plugged in to a USB hub that sits on top of my workstation (an i3-3220T machine) - the PC AND the USB sticks are using less than 90W in total. They're not deafeningly loud, and aren't adding a bucket load of heat to the house. They're replacing 2x7950 and a 6970. 90W vs nearly 1kW.
The BEs are cooled with a single 120mm fan (salvaged from a dead PSU) blowing past them, which is running off an old Netgear router PSU, all stuck to an old Moduvent from a Fractal Design case (plastic with foam backing).
I'll be selling the 7950 cards soon, and going by my previous GPU sales, I'm not going to lose any money on them as they were bought used off eBay. The 6970 I just sold not only mined me about £300 worth of BTC in it's life, but it sold for £10 more than I paid for it. The 7950 should break even, so again the BTC they produced have paid for the BEs, and anything the BEs make is pure profit from now on.
Then there's the boxes of fans, the piles of big PC tower cases, the 1kW PSU....all that will be going on eBay, hopefully again making back what I paid.
August 14, 2013, 02:56:23 AM
my blade is still at 1btc per 4 days so im happy 
August 13, 2013, 05:38:47 PM
It's possible, but even if they do this could take a very long time. Not great from an investment perspective.
Yeah, the 0% return for 1/2 a decade isn't very hot? August 13, 2013, 05:06:10 PM
This site is interesting for calculating profit with an increasing difficulty. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
I think you need to run these numbers again and read the "considering reduction" line items in the table.
Excuse my ignorance and I did look at the table, but I don't understand how to apply that value in the table. It does describe it when I hover above it.
Break even is at 156 days W/ (power cost at .3), 333Mh, investment 50. Difficulty at 50 mill, which I think is temporary - KNC Miner testing?
Thanks for mentioning it as I see the value for "considering reduction considering the reduction in mining results" is set to never. (It is set to days as you know. Setting recommendation?)
Trongersoll - Yes, there is a huge hobby factor, agreed. But the costs should be lower, we should be profiting, not just "hobbying" so to speak.
IAS
August 13, 2013, 04:24:08 PM
For me, it is the Hobby aspect... and an addiction to seeing my hashrate constantly increase.
August 13, 2013, 02:43:39 PM
This site is interesting for calculating profit with an increasing difficulty. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
I think you need to run these numbers again and read the "considering reduction" line items in the table.
August 13, 2013, 09:42:02 AM
This site is interesting for calculating profit with an increasing difficulty. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.
I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.
IAS
August 13, 2013, 06:22:21 AM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
So, an erupter USB stick at .5 BTC (333Mh) or so is probably not going to pay for itself with the difficulty going up as it is. And, a blade costing 10.5 BTC (10-13Gh) or so might not as well.
The reasons why people are so game to get in, might be:
Support the network (me)
It is a hobby, if you break even all the merrier. (me)
A more anonymous way of getting your hands on BTC's.
Expecting a much higher BTC price (but even then, buy them now).
Want to take part in the largest social experiment (outside of money itself) of all time. (me)
Personally, I got into a group buy for a 400Gh machine with an October delivery. That probably will be profitable if it arrives in October.
My Jalapeno that was ordered at the beginning of June probably won't break even if it comes later than late September.
My chips ordered through a GB and placed though Yifu, might never come.
A wash?
Lots of chances...
IAS
Quote
After tomorrow's difficulty jump, USB BE units will make ~0.1BTC/month assuming 0% difficulty increases thereafter.
After tomorrow's difficulty jump, blades will make ~3.25BTC/month assuming 0% difficulty increases thereafter.
(AnonBitcoinBuyer posted this on a group buy thread and it seems reasonable.) Can anyone with a better understanding of the difficulty, calculate something more detailed and farther out?After tomorrow's difficulty jump, blades will make ~3.25BTC/month assuming 0% difficulty increases thereafter.
So, an erupter USB stick at .5 BTC (333Mh) or so is probably not going to pay for itself with the difficulty going up as it is. And, a blade costing 10.5 BTC (10-13Gh) or so might not as well.
The reasons why people are so game to get in, might be:
Support the network (me)
It is a hobby, if you break even all the merrier. (me)
A more anonymous way of getting your hands on BTC's.
Expecting a much higher BTC price (but even then, buy them now).
Want to take part in the largest social experiment (outside of money itself) of all time. (me)
Personally, I got into a group buy for a 400Gh machine with an October delivery. That probably will be profitable if it arrives in October.
My Jalapeno that was ordered at the beginning of June probably won't break even if it comes later than late September.
My chips ordered through a GB and placed though Yifu, might never come.
A wash?
Lots of chances...
IAS
well, USB miner is so effective, it's profitable even with difficulty around 2 billion (electricity costs at 0.15USD/kWh, 1 BTC at 100 USD), which is 44 times tomorrow's difficulty. You will certainly make your money back (also, they cost 0.32 BTC, not 0.5)
It's possible, but even if they do this could take a very long time. Not great from an investment perspective.
August 12, 2013, 04:27:32 PM
2 BEs@5watt give roughly the same amount of hashpower as an overclocked 7970 @ 250 watt. It's all about how much power you consume vs how much you can hash. For me it's just an intermediate reinvestment moving from GPU, while waiting for a Saturn (which migh not or might be late, whereas those BEs are already hasing). Oh, and my power cost is $0.065 / Kwh 
August 12, 2013, 02:33:17 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills.
I was sort of leaning towards the combination of greed and excitement. (Can't discount the latter). And throw some hope in there.
But guys, regarding the Erupter's being profitable, how can you say that? (And then that would apply moreso to the blades as they are a better deal.)
After the difficulty goes high enough, they will be just like CPU's were a few months ago?
Let's see some numbers please.
Thx,
IAS
August 12, 2013, 02:09:31 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills.
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