Topic: Why putin choose winter? - page 3. (Read 589 times)

This is an interesting concept and maybe there’s some truth to it, but I’m not sure this is the case. I mean hasn’t this been an issue for some time and haven’t they already moved some there troops on the Ukraine border already (I could be wrong here). I just hope this is as far as things go, we don’t need WWIII.

More than 47% of Chinese goods by value are exported to its neighbor country in the Asian region. 20% to North America and the other 20% in the EU means the USA can not single handily crash chinas economy if they made any sanction to china. The USA is the biggest importer of china but they are not the only one so there is no way the USA can stop chinas economical growth. Also, the USA can not replace China as one of the biggest exporters of the world because of China's cheap labor and manpower it could generate.


What you are saying is true but we have to understand Putin has one of the largest militaries in the world and this gangster leader could cause serious destruction to the EU and to his own people. This power show-off could escalate a full-scale war at any time.

I'm not sure where you got this sort of a theory. I haven't been closely monitoring this news lately either. So I cannot tell whether the winter has indeed this vital role to play in the massive troop buildup in the border. However, the winter will be done by March, right? The negotiations, especially because it involves the very delicate matter of regional security and stability, would probably take more than half a year.

Of course, going into the negotiation table during this particular season gives Russia an additional leverage. However, I doubt it will become the pivot point so to speak. I don't even think the development thus far would force Ukraine to cease participating in various NATO programs and deals.

The moment the EU crashes a market of 1/3 of their GDP in exports is gone.
This is the same thing for China, China doesn't want the US economy to go down, just imagine if the US can't afford to import and consume all that stuff that comes from China, what are millions of Chinese going to do for work?

Putin needs to flex his muscles to show the people in the country something because he has nothing!
A country with vast resources and a minimum wage of 180$, on pair with the poorest region of China, lower than Mexic, Brazil, or even Albania, and before anyone brings the PPP into the discussion, a BTC is worth $37k both in the US and in Zimbabwe, hiding behind PPP means acknowledging you're living on bread and water. He simply has nothing to show poeple, not wealth, not healthcare, not infrastructure, he can only play the nationalist and patriotism cards, and for that, he needs the "glory" of the USSR if not economically at least military, just like a hooligan with a baseball bat, he doesn't care about his own problems but must impose his views on his neighbors and frighten them every single day.


30 years old infrastructure and of no outstanding strategic importance for the western allies since they already have Poland and the Baltic countries which are actually closer to Moscow than all of Ukraine less 10% in the northern part.

The reason is pretty simple.
Russia doesn't want Ukraine to get into the western influence zone because if Ukraine gets a boost to its economy and surpass that of Russia per capita poeple will start questioning themselves why are they still against the EU and also seek a change of how the country is run.
He fears the power of an example, just when you want to make a comparison between communism and capitalism you look at South and North Korea, Putin doesn't want Russia and Ukraine to be used as such examples where he is part of how not to do it.

It's not only the fuel considerations, though I am surprised to learn that Russia supplies that much fuel, it's also the fact that Ukraine is close to joining NATO the US has failed leadership that will not do anything in the event of an invasion. Seeing the US's botched withdrawal in Afghanistan gives Putin the leeway for an invasion.

It is a good point you made on russia supplying europe with gas needed to generate heat during winter.

I think the summary of it is Putin did not choose the timing of this latest conflict. The crisis manifested itself on Putin's doorstep and he is merely reacting to it the best he can.

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

Putin will know this well, having lived through the crash of the USSR and seeing firsthand effects economic crisis have in the modern world.

Economic instability and crisis in modern times can have a far more devastating impact on nations, than war or military conflict.

If he choose winter because of the winter gas demand, he got it all wrong. The talks are unlikely to end before spring and by then the demand will drop vastly. Nope, that is not likely to be the issue. If Putin intended to invade Ukraine and get to Kiev, believe me he would already be there by now. This is about getting the upper hand on a negotiation that otherwise would put him on the short end of the stick.

Not exactly I do think he was just waiting for an opportunity for ages, their economy is collapsing as well therefore I do think that it might not be a good time to actually get involved in a war and that as well to fight against NATO plus uk and us as well. At the same time US already told that they would supply the gas to Germany as well therefore I do think that the tensions were on the top ground since 2014 and they are just struck because of the NATO soilders making a move and they are scared that they would loose their dominance on Ukraine as well. They have already occupied a part and that too they can expand, now they are trying to attack the capital which is worse but right now both of them has a cease fire therefore let's see what's gonna happen.

If he is not a master planner, then perhaps he should no longer be in power right?

So he knows that he is doing, maybe everything is carefully crafted by himself alone. So the timing itself is perfect. But in any case though, I think EU is hell bent on stopping Putin so for sure they will make their move and have a Plan B here. So right now, Putin and UE are playing a chess match and let's see who is going to win.

Tension has been high ever since they've invaded and annexed Crimea. I watched a video showing that Ukraine has cut off the water from its river that is being diverted into Crimea so that could be another "justification" for invasion.

Gas has always been a big bargaining chip for Russia in negotiations with the EU so I think it really follows that if ever they are going to make an action that the EU would be against, they'd time it with winter when demand for gas is high. The threat of cutting supply when it is most needed could somewhat make up for the logistical difficulties of wagin a winter war if doing so could throw the EU countries into disarray.

I really doubt that Russia will agree upon returning Crimea to Ukraine without any military intervention which will never happen. If NATO and the EU really thought that Crimea is an important location and it must not fall to the Russian's hand then why didn't help Ukraine in 2014 with military forces when Russ army invade Crimea? EU knows how badly they needed Russia's natural resources to fuel their country.

Yes, now is indeed a convenient time for him to talk like he's the boss because many rely on Russia's supplies. But it might also be due to other factors. Putin got very angry with Ukraine for creating the Crimea Platform in August which brought G7, 29/30 NATO countries and all EU countries together to discuss returning Crimea gradually back to Ukraine and recognizing Crimea as a part of Ukraine. So he had autumn to plan a response, mobilizing the military, and by winter created enough of a threat for concerns.
I think that if he directly invades with his army, Russia is likely to face heavy sanctions, and personal sanctions are also possible. If he continues the hybrid war, sponsoring the war in Eastern Ukraine and other attacks (we have false notifications of schools and underground stations being filled with explosives very often now, and intelligence services claim it's done by Russia's intelligence agents), he might just get away with that.

Apart from geostrategic or economic value, Russia's interest in Ukraine is elsewhere.  Putin wants to restore some of Russia's old glory he lost during the Cold War.  Russian officials have denied any possible invasion in Ukraine, but the removal of US diplomats from Kyiv and the deployment of troops and S-400 along the Russian-Ukrainian border indicates a possible invasion.  

However, even if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, it is unlikely that the EU or the USA will be involved in the war. Germany denied helping Ukraine with weapons.

You figured that right. The civilization needs energy to operate and Europe takes their energy mostly from Russia. This is Putin's powerplay, showing who is the boss. We'll see if Europe will keep being a tough guy while they are buying energy from their "enemy".

If Putin cuts off gas supplies, Europeans will freeze to death and there will be lots of rebellion and shit.

It's indeed an interesting and probably valid point too.


Um... here you may have a point, but I'm not that much convinced. It's super outdated technology there and whatever "secrets" would be there, I'm almost sure that those were sold to all the interested nations long ago. And Russia knows that, so I don't see a real benefit there. And the actual devices... they may very well lay in rust...

Actually, Crimea was necessary for Russia not only for natural resources but also for its strategic naval value. Crimea had Russian naval base even when it was a part of Ukraine and Russia was operating its operations by leasing them. To get access to the black sea Russia needs that part of Ukraine So it was important for them to take control over that strategic important location and I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

There are 2 good reasons:
* he can play chess with Russia's gas
* he knows that the tanks can march on ice, but not on mud

I believe that he has thought on both these.


If they agree on NATO thing, then Russia will find something else, don't worry.
Also Europe on one hand don't want to upset Russia (gas & other reasons), while they want to appear strong (ha-ha) and want to look like they care about Ukraine's borders.
Many of Europe's actions are imho only a facade, sadly. Else, they could have helped liberating Crimea, and they didn't. Actually I don't know why Russia wants now more of Ukraine's lands (and which ones). Crimea may still have oil, Crimea has a lot of off-shore gas fields, it was a good business. The rest... I don't know.
There may be that this sad chess game is only to convince the "high powers" recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia?!

Actually, I am talking about Putin's tactical move on the Ukraine border. The tension was there for a long time but Putin didn't act on summer. Why he is taking action this winter? Because he knew EU doesn't have enough structure to import enough gas from other countries in a short time. So they must be dependent on Russias gas supply for this winter. If Putin has done this in the summer, then there won't be any problem for the EU because they would build infrastructure to import gas from other sources. Putin has done this so that the EU can not take any action to save their people from freezing to death.

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

Why winter? Because the Kremlin terrorists need an environment in which, by cutting off gas supplies to the EU, they can achieve the maximum effect, demoralizing the population. The freezing population in the country is a very strong challenge to the government of the country. This is a method of forcing the Kremlin, the EU countries, to coordinate the launch of NordStream-2 as quickly as possible (without it, they say, it is not possible to supply the necessary amount of gas to the EU), and also to cancel or not take new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Looking at EU gas reserves and supplies, alternative channels provide nearly all of the required gas for EU industry, but not enough to heat homes. The goal of the economic terrorists was precisely the inhabitants - the task was to "freeze" them in order to put pressure on the governments of the countries. But, in reality, it turned out that even the weather turned out to be on the side of the people, and somewhat spoiled the economic terrorist attack - there is no very cold winter in the EU this year, gas consumption has been reduced, which means that the available reserves should be enough not to kneel before the Kremlin terrorists .. .
And apparently the United States, the Saudis, Norway will now compensate for the shortfalls, thereby replacing and squeezing Russian gas out of the EU market. So Putin essentially "shot himself in the foot", which is typical of him

I guess the winter has nothing to do with this. This standoff has been going on for years, all seasons long. Even before the annexation of Russia of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries was already there. It wasn't as worse as now but it was already present. It mattered a lot that the leadership of Ukraine changed from pro-Russia to pro-Europe. But even prior to that, the two countries already have their history.

But still I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon, not within the winter at least, if at all. But things will depend on how negotiations will develop. I am still hopeful that despite the military buildup there won't be any war, though.