Why technical analysis is not reliable

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Quote from: Yamifoud on April 11, 2024, 06:34:31 PM

Technical Analysis is just a tool that could help the trader but of course, it doesn't mean this will be the only reason why they succeed. But those who think this is useless or not reliable, I couldn't think how they become a trader when all traders are using this market analysis.
-in fact, TA has a huge impact in making decisions and this is the way to determine if we have to sell/buy. Maybe some people don't think it was useful because they don't even trade in real life or never know how to use it.

Technical Analysis helpful for a trader, an experienced trader knows very well how much TA helps him while doing market analysis. Nothing is perfect, sometimes even the best things can fail, if trading was so easy, everyone could profit from trading. TA is widely used in the trading world for market analysis, and many successful traders have used TA to get into these positions. I think it is most important how a trader can see the market and predict the next movement of the market, and trading is all based on guesswork, no one or any system can predict the next movement of the market with 100% certainty.

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Quote from: Maslate on April 11, 2024, 06:11:05 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Because majority of the traders are certainly relying on using technical analysis with its high advantage, and thus make them successful traders. But I do believe that they are well knowledgeable and skillful as well, and not just totally dependent on technical analysis. However, it’s actually doing a big part on them, the fact that they are also knowledgeable and skillful on how to use its technical analysis that becomes an essential aspect in the trading market.

Technical Analysis is just a tool that could help the trader but of course, it doesn't mean this will be the only reason why they succeed. But those who think this is useless or not reliable, I couldn't think how they become a trader when all traders are using this market analysis.
-in fact, TA has a huge impact in making decisions and this is the way to determine if we have to sell/buy. Maybe some people don't think it was useful because they don't even trade in real life or never know how to use it.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Because majority of the traders are certainly relying on using technical analysis with its high advantage, and thus make them successful traders. But I do believe that they are well knowledgeable and skillful as well, and not just totally dependent on technical analysis. However, it’s actually doing a big part on them, the fact that they are also knowledgeable and skillful on how to use its technical analysis that becomes an essential aspect in the trading market.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

What analysis do you use in trading so that you can make more money, trading has big risks and even experienced people cannot guarantee big profits every time they trade because it is speculative, but they understand how to recover previous losses by making subsequent trades. Trading also requires mental and decision making because when the market is not suitable, we can make quick steps so as not to suffer big losses.

Sometimes combined strategies are not appropriate because we have to adjust the market to the course of the coin we are trading. If we don't have the decision-making ability, it will actually be difficult to decide. Technical analysis is only valid for comparison and I think we need another analyst to strengthen it.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Technical analysis certainly has its place in a trader’s toolkit, acting a bit like a weather vane, showing where the market winds have blown. But just like the weather, markets are subject to sudden changes. The charts might show us patterns, but they can’t capture the mood of the world, the news breaking the airwaves, or the decisions made in boardrooms.

You’ve nailed it in pointing out its main limitations. It’s like driving using only the rearview mirror — you know what’s behind you, but it’s the road ahead that matters most. The assumption that history might repeat itself can sometimes have traders marching in a parade that’s already passed by. The interpretation of charts and patterns can be as varied as coffee orders — what’s a double-shot espresso to one might be a mocha latte to another.

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

indeed, technical analysis is not a crystal ball. It won’t account for a sudden political event, an unexpected earnings report, or even a viral social media post that sends markets into a frenzy. It’s a tool, but not the whole toolbox. Smart traders dance with technical analysis but also keep an ear to the ground for the fundamental beats of the market. It’s the mixtape of methods that often plays the sweetest tune for investment decisions.

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Quote from: freedomgo on April 10, 2024, 06:56:03 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Using technical analysis has proven its usefulness in trading, but using it solely will not guarantee positive trading results. The best solution is to incorporate it with other trading methods and strategies so that there will be bigger chances of winning such trades. However, not using technical analysis in trading and just stick to other methods might also create an unsuccessful trade, that’s best from my own personal experience.

That's right, actually technical or fundamental analysis
it is indeed useful and useful to help us in terms of making profits, this helps us in terms of analyzing the market before we finally decide to draw a conclusion that leads to a decision, but as you said, even if you use technical or fundamental analysis to help make it easier for you in terms of looking for profits, but overall it will not be able to guarantee that you will actually make a profit at the end of the session because after all the risk will continue to lurk.

Technical or fundamental analysis is only something that can help us increase the chances of possible profits, meaning that if you don't combine strategy with technical or fundamental analysis then the possibility of turning a decision into a profit is quite difficult, so I admit that your experience is true. and this is what you have to pay attention to when you become a trader.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

You cant rely technical analysis?

Then how you would really be considering on how to trade into this unpredictable space? Via news? Fundamentals? Not anytime we do see some news on which you can able to rely upon into.
We've seen that this market is unpredictable, and even technicals doesnt really give out that precise predictions on where these prices would be going but doesnt mean that they are useless.
You would really be able to feel out its relevance on the time that you would step your foot into this market. You cant really be able to handle up yourself well without
having these technicals on which means that it would really be something that you will really be needing up to have that serious approach.

You would really be able to tell up the difference on using up technical indicators in compared into making up trades without any basis or analysis that be applied.

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Quote from: dansus021 on April 05, 2024, 02:10:48 AM

Technical analysis is not 100% accurate I mean there is no analysis that always hit 100% win rate without a single loss or else maybe people are using the technique all the time.

To be honest, TA is reliable when much of people know the technique ex. EMA 100 and 200 is well know moving average to determine long term trend and the price usually reject at that level for 70% all the time I believe because a lot of people believe in it. or simple TA like basic supply and demand zone or support and resistance zone is has 80% accurate in my opinion

Technical analysis works if you also know how to deal with it effectively. It’s not that you will only resort into trading using technical analysis and you’re eventually making successful trades. It does not work like that. One should also learn how to read the chart and market pattens, should know how the price moves historically, and should be more inclined on making market analysis, that way you can highly utilize technical analysis and make it work effectively.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Using technical analysis has proven its usefulness in trading, but using it solely will not guarantee positive trading results. The best solution is to incorporate it with other trading methods and strategies so that there will be bigger chances of winning such trades. However, not using technical analysis in trading and just stick to other methods might also create an unsuccessful trade, that’s best from my own personal experience.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.

It's because sometimes it is working and reliable but not all strategies are like that. There are some that might be working but the majority of them cannot work at most times.

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.

That's okay if that's what they feel. On this market, whatever strategy that works for you, then you have to use them for your own sake because no one is there to save you from your strategy but only you.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 05:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Of course, you can't appreciate the usefulness of TA when you are not interested in it, and if you have not tried using this.
Of course, nobody is forced to use TA but have to remember that trading without analysis is just that we are gambling. But if you can take a look at why traders are using this tool is because they found out that this is very important in trading and they can prove the difference from someone who is not using this compared to the one who consistently uses TA.

In fact, even just looking at the market chart is just like simply analyzing the possible market trend.

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Your headline/subject is misleading, instead of saying reliable why not use "too much reliable". If it's not reliable, there wouldn't be the launch in the first place and many experts that has wrote many books about technical analysis wouldn't have bother but even today, their books are fast selling on Amazon and other retail book shops both online and offline.

Trading is a mixture of different things such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis, personal experience, emotions and also the choice of the platform you are using to trade. So, relying on just one particular one is will make you gain nothing in the market.

If you used one and forget to use the other one, you wouldn't make much. If you even use fundamental and technical and yet you lack experience in the game, you will not make much money like person or a trader that has been in the system for a very long.

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Quote from: Barikui1 on April 07, 2024, 02:13:42 AM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Are you f**king kidding me? Or do you really know what technical analysis entails? If you where talking of technical indicators, that would have been understandable because I have also gotten a fare share of my own experience with technical indicators, which only shows you what has happened in the market in the past, but not what's going to happen in the future, so if you really want to be successful in trading, using only the analysis of technical indicators to trade is a total failure.

So as a trader , it's very important you to know what technical analysis entails, because technical analysis is the overall forecasting of the market, and what is expected next of it, if forecasting is the right word to use, so if you are very good at doing technical analysis in trading, their is a very high possibilities of you being profitable, if you can manage your risk properly.

I doubt TA is the overall forecast of the market, its only a bais showing how traders should react to the market, Fundamentals are needed and Fundamentals have more impact on the market especially in FX market, but in crypto Fundamentals have less impact.
I agree with you that a good Technical Analyst have very high possibility being a profitable trader as far he knows and have an edge.

I don't buy the idea of using Technical indicators, as its misleading and doesn't show the knowledge or idea of a trader at all. Some Traders can't trade, they don't know anything about structure, or how the market react but know all types of MA, MACD, to mention but a few because I don't use indicators. Though we have leading and lagging indicators.

In essence do what works for you, we only react based on whatever our strategy is, as far we are getting paid leverage on what is working for you.

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Quote from: Catenaccio on April 01, 2024, 10:50:46 PM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.

Trading is risky itself.

Technical analysis can not help traders to exclude risk from trading.

Technical indicators can be manipulated by whales and they can set up their games by bending indicators to make most of market participants to believe that a next market movements will be like what is written in books.

At the end, they turn it around and the market will move oppositely against what is thought and believed by the crowd. Traders will be killed and liquidated if they use leverage with strong belief on technical indicators and analysis.

There is no risk in trading itself because we will just trade one thing to the other but the risk depends on us or on how we make actions because you know, many traders are greedy to put more money and pick up a more risky asset, thinking they can earn more from it. Another one is on what strategy we will use to initiate the trade.

For those types of traders, TA's might help but it wont eliminate the risks because there are many factors that can make the coin move in the direction as opposed to what we expected it will go. You already gave one factor there which is called manipulation. We can still avoid it if we won't rely on the analysis of others and then choose a much better coin.

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Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

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Quote from: shield132 on April 06, 2024, 01:24:35 PM

Technical analysis is reliable, I am 100% sure about that because I have been looking at charts for years and you can frequently correctly predict whether charts will go up or down but there are moments when technical analysis can lie to you and that moment happens when there is a dramatic change on the market. When there is a news like China bans Bitcoin mining or Elon Musk's Tesla decided to not accept Bitcoin payments, this kind of news always dramatically affects Bitcoin's price and the predicted price that you built on technical analysis, goes wrong. Also, there are moments when whales sell or buy too many Bitcoins and price goes in an unexpected way.
You have to be always updated if you trade Bitcoins daily. If you aren't updated and solely build your success on technical analysis, you'll fail hard.

Technical analysis is reliable but that doesn't mean we have to trust them completely. In the market there are not only retail investors like us but also market makers, developers, whales, sharks...And people with a lot of money will never want to make money the same way as us, they will find every way to manipulate the market. Furthermore, we can analyze the market, why can't they? And the financial market is no different than a battlefield, if everyone can use fundamental and technical analysis and can see the movement of bitcoin, who will lose? So for me, everything is only relative, used for reference, but cannot completely trust TA or FA.

Have you ever thought: TA and FA are both things that market makers create and want us to use them? And that's the best way to manipulate us?

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Quote from: Natsuu on April 06, 2024, 02:23:50 PM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

Some of its limitations includes...
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I know before that there is someone who is making money trading financial market and what she was using was trading the Lunar Timing which creates a pattern trading depends on size of moon whether it is full moon today, halfmoon, or cloudy. Sound crazy as it is but it does work for her. She's basically trading her guesses and "analysis" with correct risk management yet she make money compare to other people who are over-analyzing the market.

Which means, knowing where the market will go next won't make you money. The only thing that would make you money is to know when to click and when not to click the buy/sell button.

And you mean that there is a pattern in trading? Because if that is true and that story of yours is real, I can really imagine that person if not a millionaire, probably is a billionaire now in using that belief. But even it was published publicly, nobody would believe that because the market has never changed as it was still unpredictable in reality. Trading with just using a wild guess without a strong basis and market analysis, it just means that we are relying on luck and hope.

Having a TA doesn't mean we have to spend 24 hours a day or longer, it will just take a few hours to make it. Unless you are studying the entire market with thousands of different coins.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Are you f**king kidding me? Or do you really know what technical analysis entails? If you where talking of technical indicators, that would have been understandable because I have also gotten a fare share of my own experience with technical indicators, which only shows you what has happened in the market in the past, but not what's going to happen in the future, so if you really want to be successful in trading, using only the analysis of technical indicators to trade is a total failure.

So as a trader , it's very important you to know what technical analysis entails, because technical analysis is the overall forecasting of the market, and what is expected next of it, if forecasting is the right word to use, so if you are very good at doing technical analysis in trading, their is a very high possibilities of you being profitable, if you can manage your risk properly.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 06:18:26 PM

Some of its limitations includes...
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I know before that there is someone who is making money trading financial market and what she was using was trading the Lunar Timing which creates a pattern trading depends on size of moon whether it is full moon today, halfmoon, or cloudy. Sound crazy as it is but it does work for her. She's basically trading her guesses and "analysis" with correct risk management yet she make money compare to other people who are over-analyzing the market.

Which means, knowing where the market will go next won't make you money. The only thing that would make you money is to know when to click and when not to click the buy/sell button.

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Technical analysis is reliable, I am 100% sure about that because I have been looking at charts for years and you can frequently correctly predict whether charts will go up or down but there are moments when technical analysis can lie to you and that moment happens when there is a dramatic change on the market. When there is a news like China bans Bitcoin mining or Elon Musk's Tesla decided to not accept Bitcoin payments, this kind of news always dramatically affects Bitcoin's price and the predicted price that you built on technical analysis, goes wrong. Also, there are moments when whales sell or buy too many Bitcoins and price goes in an unexpected way.
You have to be always updated if you trade Bitcoins daily. If you aren't updated and solely build your success on technical analysis, you'll fail hard.

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