Why technical analysis is not reliable - page 3.

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Quote from: Barikui1 on April 07, 2024, 01:13:42 AM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Are you f**king kidding me? Or do you really know what technical analysis entails? If you where talking of technical indicators, that would have been understandable because I have also gotten a fare share of my own experience with technical indicators, which only shows you what has happened in the market in the past, but not what's going to happen in the future, so if you really want to be successful in trading, using only the analysis of technical indicators to trade is a total failure.

So as a trader , it's very important you to know what technical analysis entails, because technical analysis is the overall forecasting of the market, and what is expected next of it, if forecasting is the right word to use, so if you are very good at doing technical analysis in trading, their is a very high possibilities of you being profitable, if you can manage your risk properly.

I doubt TA is the overall forecast of the market, its only a bais showing how traders should react to the market, Fundamentals are needed and Fundamentals have more impact on the market especially in FX market, but in crypto Fundamentals have less impact.
I agree with you that a good Technical Analyst have very high possibility being a profitable trader as far he knows and have an edge.

I don't buy the idea of using Technical indicators, as its misleading and doesn't show the knowledge or idea of a trader at all. Some Traders can't trade, they don't know anything about structure, or how the market react but know all types of MA, MACD, to mention but a few because I don't use indicators. Though we have leading and lagging indicators.

In essence do what works for you, we only react based on whatever our strategy is, as far we are getting paid leverage on what is working for you.

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Quote from: Catenaccio on April 01, 2024, 09:50:46 PM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.

Trading is risky itself.

Technical analysis can not help traders to exclude risk from trading.

Technical indicators can be manipulated by whales and they can set up their games by bending indicators to make most of market participants to believe that a next market movements will be like what is written in books.

At the end, they turn it around and the market will move oppositely against what is thought and believed by the crowd. Traders will be killed and liquidated if they use leverage with strong belief on technical indicators and analysis.

There is no risk in trading itself because we will just trade one thing to the other but the risk depends on us or on how we make actions because you know, many traders are greedy to put more money and pick up a more risky asset, thinking they can earn more from it. Another one is on what strategy we will use to initiate the trade.

For those types of traders, TA's might help but it wont eliminate the risks because there are many factors that can make the coin move in the direction as opposed to what we expected it will go. You already gave one factor there which is called manipulation. We can still avoid it if we won't rely on the analysis of others and then choose a much better coin.

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Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

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Quote from: shield132 on April 06, 2024, 12:24:35 PM

Technical analysis is reliable, I am 100% sure about that because I have been looking at charts for years and you can frequently correctly predict whether charts will go up or down but there are moments when technical analysis can lie to you and that moment happens when there is a dramatic change on the market. When there is a news like China bans Bitcoin mining or Elon Musk's Tesla decided to not accept Bitcoin payments, this kind of news always dramatically affects Bitcoin's price and the predicted price that you built on technical analysis, goes wrong. Also, there are moments when whales sell or buy too many Bitcoins and price goes in an unexpected way.
You have to be always updated if you trade Bitcoins daily. If you aren't updated and solely build your success on technical analysis, you'll fail hard.

Technical analysis is reliable but that doesn't mean we have to trust them completely. In the market there are not only retail investors like us but also market makers, developers, whales, sharks...And people with a lot of money will never want to make money the same way as us, they will find every way to manipulate the market. Furthermore, we can analyze the market, why can't they? And the financial market is no different than a battlefield, if everyone can use fundamental and technical analysis and can see the movement of bitcoin, who will lose? So for me, everything is only relative, used for reference, but cannot completely trust TA or FA.

Have you ever thought: TA and FA are both things that market makers create and want us to use them? And that's the best way to manipulate us?

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Quote from: Natsuu on April 06, 2024, 01:23:50 PM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

Some of its limitations includes...
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I know before that there is someone who is making money trading financial market and what she was using was trading the Lunar Timing which creates a pattern trading depends on size of moon whether it is full moon today, halfmoon, or cloudy. Sound crazy as it is but it does work for her. She's basically trading her guesses and "analysis" with correct risk management yet she make money compare to other people who are over-analyzing the market.

Which means, knowing where the market will go next won't make you money. The only thing that would make you money is to know when to click and when not to click the buy/sell button.

And you mean that there is a pattern in trading? Because if that is true and that story of yours is real, I can really imagine that person if not a millionaire, probably is a billionaire now in using that belief. But even it was published publicly, nobody would believe that because the market has never changed as it was still unpredictable in reality. Trading with just using a wild guess without a strong basis and market analysis, it just means that we are relying on luck and hope.

Having a TA doesn't mean we have to spend 24 hours a day or longer, it will just take a few hours to make it. Unless you are studying the entire market with thousands of different coins.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Are you f**king kidding me? Or do you really know what technical analysis entails? If you where talking of technical indicators, that would have been understandable because I have also gotten a fare share of my own experience with technical indicators, which only shows you what has happened in the market in the past, but not what's going to happen in the future, so if you really want to be successful in trading, using only the analysis of technical indicators to trade is a total failure.

So as a trader , it's very important you to know what technical analysis entails, because technical analysis is the overall forecasting of the market, and what is expected next of it, if forecasting is the right word to use, so if you are very good at doing technical analysis in trading, their is a very high possibilities of you being profitable, if you can manage your risk properly.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

Some of its limitations includes...
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I know before that there is someone who is making money trading financial market and what she was using was trading the Lunar Timing which creates a pattern trading depends on size of moon whether it is full moon today, halfmoon, or cloudy. Sound crazy as it is but it does work for her. She's basically trading her guesses and "analysis" with correct risk management yet she make money compare to other people who are over-analyzing the market.

Which means, knowing where the market will go next won't make you money. The only thing that would make you money is to know when to click and when not to click the buy/sell button.

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Technical analysis is reliable, I am 100% sure about that because I have been looking at charts for years and you can frequently correctly predict whether charts will go up or down but there are moments when technical analysis can lie to you and that moment happens when there is a dramatic change on the market. When there is a news like China bans Bitcoin mining or Elon Musk's Tesla decided to not accept Bitcoin payments, this kind of news always dramatically affects Bitcoin's price and the predicted price that you built on technical analysis, goes wrong. Also, there are moments when whales sell or buy too many Bitcoins and price goes in an unexpected way.
You have to be always updated if you trade Bitcoins daily. If you aren't updated and solely build your success on technical analysis, you'll fail hard.

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Technical analysis is a very impressive tool to analyse a project and try to predict its future performance but there are some other factors as well to ponder. The marketing strategy is also very important as you can see some projects with not good fundamentals but due to very strong marketing they perform very well.

The other factor that can play an important role is those updates that are announced by the projects. Technical analysis analyses data on the basis of previous features so it misses the updates. As we know that when projects don't perform well updates are launched to make projects better so it's a very important factor.

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Quote from: Volimack on April 06, 2024, 12:00:52 AM

In trading you need to know the updated information of the market constantly it will depend on the correct analysis. Technical analysis in trading is a way to predict the most likely outcome, namely future price volatility, by using their past and future periods. Like weather forecasters the tools used in technical analysis and its results cannot provide 100% information about future price movements. It is wise to analyze the market yourself.

The point is that trading analysis helps us decide to what we gonna do next. With all the available data online - the price chart and the past market events, it was not hard for us to make a simple analysis and even if it was just a simple but yes, the results are at least at a bigger chance close to the actual trend. Those who think that TA is a waste of time and useless, are those people who are not actually in trading. Of course, these people don't see its importance because they are not trading in the first place.

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In trading you need to know the updated information of the market constantly it will depend on the correct analysis. Technical analysis in trading is a way to predict the most likely outcome, namely future price volatility, by using their past and future periods. Like weather forecasters the tools used in technical analysis and its results cannot provide 100% information about future price movements. It is wise to analyze the market yourself.

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Quote from: hd49728 on April 05, 2024, 10:28:16 PM

Quote from: AmoreJaz on April 05, 2024, 06:42:18 PM

The reason why most TAs don't work with alts or crypto is due to the fact that the behaviour of these alts are hard to determine esp if the team is playing the wash trading technique. Or they are about to exit the market and they are dumping their holdings. This is why to understand what is indeed going on with the project, you need to keep up with their announcements, social media postings and other channels you think they will be active in.

Manipulation is key but we have to note about another thing. Trading volume of altcoins is not high and applying technical indicators, technical analysis for altcoins with low trading volume will be risky. Market makers can easily bend the chart with indicators they want to use, and they don't need to spend big capital for manipulation.

For cryptocurrency market, it is true too because total market cap of this market is very small compares to many traditional markets.

Manipulation could really mess up whether technical or fundamental analysis on which this is something that cant really be known. This is why it would really be best that you should really be able to know on how to make use of these things because it would really be something that relevant. You cant really just that make yourself that dive in into the market without having any proper analysis on which we know that this is something that you would really be needing to do because once you dont find yourself that having make use of these analysis then you are really just that simply doing gambling. We cant really be able to know on what would happen into the next minute on which it would really be just that right that you should at least be that knowing on what are the the things that you should gonna do.

You might find technical analysis might not really be that something relevant but on the time that you would really be hovering yourself into this market then you would be
able to realize that this is something important.

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on April 05, 2024, 06:42:18 PM

The reason why most TAs don't work with alts or crypto is due to the fact that the behaviour of these alts are hard to determine esp if the team is playing the wash trading technique. Or they are about to exit the market and they are dumping their holdings. This is why to understand what is indeed going on with the project, you need to keep up with their announcements, social media postings and other channels you think they will be active in.

Manipulation is key but we have to note about another thing. Trading volume of altcoins is not high and applying technical indicators, technical analysis for altcoins with low trading volume will be risky. Market makers can easily bend the chart with indicators they want to use, and they don't need to spend big capital for manipulation.

For cryptocurrency market, it is true too because total market cap of this market is very small compares to many traditional markets.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 05, 2024, 02:56:24 PM

While using technical analysis we already have in mind the risk of this type of analysis, since it's based on historical market data, technical analysis basically deals with possibilities and not like a prediction, so at such it shouldn't be 100% percent relied on, using technical analysis you will have to prepare for unfavourable situations by setting stop losses, that action alone means that the analyst is admitting that he might be wrong at a certain point.

The reason why most TAs don't work with alts or crypto is due to the fact that the behaviour of these alts are hard to determine esp if the team is playing the wash trading technique. Or they are about to exit the market and they are dumping their holdings. This is why to understand what is indeed going on with the project, you need to keep up with their announcements, social media postings and other channels you think they will be active in.

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Trading is fully depend on analysis whatever you called it can be technical analysis or it can be fundamental analysis. Both are important for the professional trading but it is true that there is not guaranteed that for those analysis you will be make 100% profit. Because even then there are lots of successful trader I will also say they also had face loss. But in case of them the loss amount will be much lesser because intelligent trader use the stop loss. Will not be fully completed if we not use technical analysis so we can't underestimate technical analysis. Technical analysis is the essential things for trading.

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Quote from: dansus021 on April 05, 2024, 01:10:48 AM

Technical analysis is not 100% accurate I mean there is no analysis that always hit 100% win rate without a single loss or else maybe people are using the technique all the time.

To be honest, TA is reliable when much of people know the technique ex. EMA 100 and 200 is well know moving average to determine long term trend and the price usually reject at that level for 70% all the time I believe because a lot of people believe in it. or simple TA like basic supply and demand zone or support and resistance zone is has 80% accurate in my opinion

Using technical analysis won’t guarantee sure profits. Although it can make some traders end up profitable with trading, but that also depends how those traders use technical analysis mixed with their general knowledge and skills in trading. Because otherwise, if they only rely on using technical analysis alone, that would not create high potentials to come up with a successful trade.

The market is highly unpredictable, and trading only using technical analysis will not be good enough. Good amount of trading experience will be a more reliable one compared to trading focusing only on technical aspects.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 05, 2024, 02:56:24 PM

While using technical analysis we already have in mind the risk of this type of analysis, since it's based on historical market data, technical analysis basically deals with possibilities and not like a prediction, so at such it shouldn't be 100% percent relied on, using technical analysis you will have to prepare for unfavourable situations by setting stop losses, that action alone means that the analyst is admitting that he might be wrong at a certain point.

Technical analysis is not perfect but it works and many are still doing it and winning.
It’s not always about hitting the target, analysis are more about precaution and a guidelines on what to do next. We have to be more patient and accept the fact that we can’t outrun the market but we can still make money out of it, all you have to do is to be more consistent and be ready for risk.

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While using technical analysis we already have in mind the risk of this type of analysis, since it's based on historical market data, technical analysis basically deals with possibilities and not like a prediction, so at such it shouldn't be 100% percent relied on, using technical analysis you will have to prepare for unfavourable situations by setting stop losses, that action alone means that the analyst is admitting that he might be wrong at a certain point.

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Quote from: milewilda on April 04, 2024, 04:28:28 PM

Haha you got it right! People would really be making out those kind of sentiments basing up into the emotions and mindset that they do have specially on the time that they have failed on doing trading
and this time via making use of technicals and with too much failure and loses then they do really came up with this kind of idea that it doesnt really work and its not something that you could really be able to rely on
without even trying out to realize that these tools are the main ones being used by most traders. You cant really be able to read up a chart without having these indicators on which you cant really be able to make use of price actions anytime. This is why it would really be that normal that traders would really be making use of these indicators.

Naked trading could be considered to those people who are already that professional but still we would really be needing up to make use of these tools so that it could make out that reading up possible
entries and exits which we do know that it would really be relevant or something important. Also, not all the time this market would really be having news or major events on which
you could really be able to watch for.

Those who are already very professional will also not get any guarantees about trading and the tools used. Trading naked by just looking at how market conditions, charts and candles are taken into account quickly, but it is effective or not depending on how the market trend will continue. Analyzing fundamentals so carefully is also needed, because it will also affect the market and prices that will occur.

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Quote from: gunhell16 on April 04, 2024, 08:31:50 AM

My question to you is: is technical analysis not helpful to other traders? Now, if technical analysis is not reliable, shouldn't other traders stop using it? Is that right?

Let's just assume that technical analysis is not really reliable. What method should a trader use or do to get profit from trading on any exchange platform if we don't
do technical analysis anymore? Please answer OP so that we can be enlightened here on this forum platform.

The problem is that TA is not something that is definite, meaning that not everyone uses the same TA, if I check the bollinger band of a coin and buy based on that, and if you check the EMA of it and buy based on that, we could have two different ways and two different entry points, and yet we both did TA. Or better yet, I could be a newbie who made a mistake while calculating, and you could be a veteran who did it exactly how it should be, we both look at the same indicator, but enter at different moments.

So, there are so many ways where people could actually end up figuring out how we could end up with a different thing while both also doing TA at the same time. Now expand that to tens of thousands of people who do TA.

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