Why technical analysis is not reliable - page 2.

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Quote from: Mauser on June 30, 2024, 09:57:27 AM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I fully agree with you that technical analysis is a backward looking tool that needs to be used with caution, because it relies on past trading. The issue is that all other trading strategies have downsides too. There isn't one strategy that works all the time and you can blindly trust it. When it comes to trading we always need to be careful and should be double checking our strategy before trusting it blindly. Buying an asset means we expect a positive growth for the future, but this always involves uncertainty. A prediction of the future will never be with a 100% certainty, even in best model. For me technical analysis gives a great indication of the current state and in which direction the general market is moving.

We are all indeed trying out to connect things on past trading and conditions or situations on which we could really be able to apply those indicators or tools yet we do know that there's no way on predicting on what lies ahead and this is why on the moment that you do find yourself having that kind of approach on relying too much with it and expecting something positive then it would really be bringing out that disappointment if it fails. This is why you should really be putting back into your mind that Technical analysis arent that guaranteed thing and never been precise in the first place but just like on what everyone is saying on here is that
it is really that something better on having some application of these indicators rather than on making up some decisions without any basis.

So if you dont make yourself believe that technical isnt really that reliable, then how you would really be doing it? What would really be using?

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.

Technical analysis only functions to assess and the level of accuracy depends very much on percentages. Meanwhile, fundamental analysis tries to evaluate so that it will produce a much better level of accuracy. That's why trading is said to be risky because the level of accuracy cannot always be seen from technical analysis because the market could change direction.

There are many considerations that must be made when we want to carry out trading and when our abilities or skills are not good enough, it will be very difficult to recognize market conditions and the coins we want to trade.

Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

The point you convey are more precisely used for trading because most people use these patterns for trading, not investing. Although this analysis can also be used for investment, such as looking at past market assumptions using technical analysis.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

I fully agree with you that technical analysis is a backward looking tool that needs to be used with caution, because it relies on past trading. The issue is that all other trading strategies have downsides too. There isn't one strategy that works all the time and you can blindly trust it. When it comes to trading we always need to be careful and should be double checking our strategy before trusting it blindly. Buying an asset means we expect a positive growth for the future, but this always involves uncertainty. A prediction of the future will never be with a 100% certainty, even in best model. For me technical analysis gives a great indication of the current state and in which direction the general market is moving.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on June 27, 2024, 05:25:15 PM

Traders must master both analyzes before trading - if they only rely on feelings, then it is the same as gambling where only luck can get them return. If you really want to become a trader - then master the analysis, at least it will help you in the process of making profit.

Trading without a basis for their trades was like gambling hoping for luck. And certainly not a good practice and no hope of becoming successful.
Those who feel easy in trading will have no chance of making a profit but only incur losses. Nobody is perfect in trading but at least we are helping ourselves to become at least have the chance of earning rather than totally nothing. In the end, those who know TA have a bigger chance to succeed but those who ignore its importance will end up emptying wallets.

But as a trader who aims to become successful, I would learn the necessary things to improve. If other people become successful, there is nothing to say it is impossible to happen with us as long as we try our best.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

First, it was never been considered to be 100% precise
Second, if you dont have that realistic experience about trading then you would be saying on these words.

1. Future isnt that known or could be predicted but it would always rhymes with those past events on which it would be understandable that traders would
really be tending to look back basing into those conditions and this is something that cant be stopped.

2. Different people, have different analysis but doesnt mean that you wont really be looking up and snip some other peoples ideas.
You should really be that considering on doing so.

3. It would never be, but having that TA approach is much more better in compared into those traders who do make out positions but
having no analysis or considerations on neither using technical indicators or fundamentals on which you are really just that basically doing gambling with that approach.

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Quote from: Baki202 on June 27, 2024, 03:57:12 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

-snip-

Even if technical analysis is very important, you cannot always rely on it to be profitable. People lose money even before they become experts, and they are aware of how much they have been losing. Even though not everyone who trades will profit from what they learn, you can still make money by teaching others how to trade. This is one of the experiences that traders will have before they start making money, and the level of expertise will determine how profitable you can become. Just that their is no way you can trade without knowing analysis just to make process and if you don’t follow them then their is a very big problem then even if you attend classes to learn they will still teach you analysis if you actually want to trade.

It can be said that technical analysis is a supporting factor for a trader in making trading decision. You are of course right in saying that technical analysis is not always reliable - in fact there are no indicators available that can guarantee you a profit. Sometime fundamental analysis is more useful than technical analysis, so combining the two analyzes will usually produce better guidance.

Traders must master both analyzes before trading - if they only rely on feelings, then it is the same as gambling where only luck can get them return. If you really want to become a trader - then master the analysis, at least it will help you in the process of making profit.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Even if technical analysis is very important, you cannot always rely on it to be profitable. People lose money even before they become experts, and they are aware of how much they have been losing. Even though not everyone who trades will profit from what they learn, you can still make money by teaching others how to trade. This is one of the experiences that traders will have before they start making money, and the level of expertise will determine how profitable you can become. Just that their is no way you can trade without knowing analysis just to make process and if you don’t follow them then their is a very big problem then even if you attend classes to learn they will still teach you analysis if you actually want to trade.

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Well I don’t really know much about the technical analysis but I know it a game of understanding and it is what traders use to trades this days because it is the past market and it has to be traded analysis very well based on the previous market, this analysis is something that you have to understand and follow a little bit of it and also consider the current situation of the market not just based on the past market, so therefore, you have to understand how the current market works before proceeding on your analysis if not, you may find some losing, and you may go down

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Quote from: Yamifoud on April 11, 2024, 05:34:31 PM

Technical Analysis is just a tool that could help the trader but of course, it doesn't mean this will be the only reason why they succeed. But those who think this is useless or not reliable, I couldn't think how they become a trader when all traders are using this market analysis.
-in fact, TA has a huge impact in making decisions and this is the way to determine if we have to sell/buy. Maybe some people don't think it was useful because they don't even trade in real life or never know how to use it.

Technical Analysis helpful for a trader, an experienced trader knows very well how much TA helps him while doing market analysis. Nothing is perfect, sometimes even the best things can fail, if trading was so easy, everyone could profit from trading. TA is widely used in the trading world for market analysis, and many successful traders have used TA to get into these positions. I think it is most important how a trader can see the market and predict the next movement of the market, and trading is all based on guesswork, no one or any system can predict the next movement of the market with 100% certainty.

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Quote from: Maslate on April 11, 2024, 05:11:05 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Because majority of the traders are certainly relying on using technical analysis with its high advantage, and thus make them successful traders. But I do believe that they are well knowledgeable and skillful as well, and not just totally dependent on technical analysis. However, it’s actually doing a big part on them, the fact that they are also knowledgeable and skillful on how to use its technical analysis that becomes an essential aspect in the trading market.

Technical Analysis is just a tool that could help the trader but of course, it doesn't mean this will be the only reason why they succeed. But those who think this is useless or not reliable, I couldn't think how they become a trader when all traders are using this market analysis.
-in fact, TA has a huge impact in making decisions and this is the way to determine if we have to sell/buy. Maybe some people don't think it was useful because they don't even trade in real life or never know how to use it.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Because majority of the traders are certainly relying on using technical analysis with its high advantage, and thus make them successful traders. But I do believe that they are well knowledgeable and skillful as well, and not just totally dependent on technical analysis. However, it’s actually doing a big part on them, the fact that they are also knowledgeable and skillful on how to use its technical analysis that becomes an essential aspect in the trading market.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

What analysis do you use in trading so that you can make more money, trading has big risks and even experienced people cannot guarantee big profits every time they trade because it is speculative, but they understand how to recover previous losses by making subsequent trades. Trading also requires mental and decision making because when the market is not suitable, we can make quick steps so as not to suffer big losses.

Sometimes combined strategies are not appropriate because we have to adjust the market to the course of the coin we are trading. If we don't have the decision-making ability, it will actually be difficult to decide. Technical analysis is only valid for comparison and I think we need another analyst to strengthen it.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

Technical analysis certainly has its place in a trader’s toolkit, acting a bit like a weather vane, showing where the market winds have blown. But just like the weather, markets are subject to sudden changes. The charts might show us patterns, but they can’t capture the mood of the world, the news breaking the airwaves, or the decisions made in boardrooms.

You’ve nailed it in pointing out its main limitations. It’s like driving using only the rearview mirror — you know what’s behind you, but it’s the road ahead that matters most. The assumption that history might repeat itself can sometimes have traders marching in a parade that’s already passed by. The interpretation of charts and patterns can be as varied as coffee orders — what’s a double-shot espresso to one might be a mocha latte to another.

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

indeed, technical analysis is not a crystal ball. It won’t account for a sudden political event, an unexpected earnings report, or even a viral social media post that sends markets into a frenzy. It’s a tool, but not the whole toolbox. Smart traders dance with technical analysis but also keep an ear to the ground for the fundamental beats of the market. It’s the mixtape of methods that often plays the sweetest tune for investment decisions.

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Quote from: freedomgo on April 10, 2024, 05:56:03 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Using technical analysis has proven its usefulness in trading, but using it solely will not guarantee positive trading results. The best solution is to incorporate it with other trading methods and strategies so that there will be bigger chances of winning such trades. However, not using technical analysis in trading and just stick to other methods might also create an unsuccessful trade, that’s best from my own personal experience.

That's right, actually technical or fundamental analysis
it is indeed useful and useful to help us in terms of making profits, this helps us in terms of analyzing the market before we finally decide to draw a conclusion that leads to a decision, but as you said, even if you use technical or fundamental analysis to help make it easier for you in terms of looking for profits, but overall it will not be able to guarantee that you will actually make a profit at the end of the session because after all the risk will continue to lurk.

Technical or fundamental analysis is only something that can help us increase the chances of possible profits, meaning that if you don't combine strategy with technical or fundamental analysis then the possibility of turning a decision into a profit is quite difficult, so I admit that your experience is true. and this is what you have to pay attention to when you become a trader.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on April 01, 2024, 05:18:26 PM

technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market, that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.

You cant rely technical analysis?

Then how you would really be considering on how to trade into this unpredictable space? Via news? Fundamentals? Not anytime we do see some news on which you can able to rely upon into.
We've seen that this market is unpredictable, and even technicals doesnt really give out that precise predictions on where these prices would be going but doesnt mean that they are useless.
You would really be able to feel out its relevance on the time that you would step your foot into this market. You cant really be able to handle up yourself well without
having these technicals on which means that it would really be something that you will really be needing up to have that serious approach.

You would really be able to tell up the difference on using up technical indicators in compared into making up trades without any basis or analysis that be applied.

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Quote from: dansus021 on April 05, 2024, 01:10:48 AM

Technical analysis is not 100% accurate I mean there is no analysis that always hit 100% win rate without a single loss or else maybe people are using the technique all the time.

To be honest, TA is reliable when much of people know the technique ex. EMA 100 and 200 is well know moving average to determine long term trend and the price usually reject at that level for 70% all the time I believe because a lot of people believe in it. or simple TA like basic supply and demand zone or support and resistance zone is has 80% accurate in my opinion

Technical analysis works if you also know how to deal with it effectively. It’s not that you will only resort into trading using technical analysis and you’re eventually making successful trades. It does not work like that. One should also learn how to read the chart and market pattens, should know how the price moves historically, and should be more inclined on making market analysis, that way you can highly utilize technical analysis and make it work effectively.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Using technical analysis has proven its usefulness in trading, but using it solely will not guarantee positive trading results. The best solution is to incorporate it with other trading methods and strategies so that there will be bigger chances of winning such trades. However, not using technical analysis in trading and just stick to other methods might also create an unsuccessful trade, that’s best from my own personal experience.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.

It's because sometimes it is working and reliable but not all strategies are like that. There are some that might be working but the majority of them cannot work at most times.

Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.

That's okay if that's what they feel. On this market, whatever strategy that works for you, then you have to use them for your own sake because no one is there to save you from your strategy but only you.

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Quote from: Bushdark on April 07, 2024, 04:01:51 AM

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Of course, you can't appreciate the usefulness of TA when you are not interested in it, and if you have not tried using this.
Of course, nobody is forced to use TA but have to remember that trading without analysis is just that we are gambling. But if you can take a look at why traders are using this tool is because they found out that this is very important in trading and they can prove the difference from someone who is not using this compared to the one who consistently uses TA.

In fact, even just looking at the market chart is just like simply analyzing the possible market trend.

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Your headline/subject is misleading, instead of saying reliable why not use "too much reliable". If it's not reliable, there wouldn't be the launch in the first place and many experts that has wrote many books about technical analysis wouldn't have bother but even today, their books are fast selling on Amazon and other retail book shops both online and offline.

Trading is a mixture of different things such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis, personal experience, emotions and also the choice of the platform you are using to trade. So, relying on just one particular one is will make you gain nothing in the market.

If you used one and forget to use the other one, you wouldn't make much. If you even use fundamental and technical and yet you lack experience in the game, you will not make much money like person or a trader that has been in the system for a very long.

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