TL: DR Market manipulation of big sell-offs on Bitfinex and leveraged insider trading rumors on Bitmex.. long story short... any position right now is just gambling.. and definitely avoid leveraged positions.
The Bear Scenario: The bart candles (looks like Bart Simpson's head) are signs of extremely low volume and easy manipulation. On Bitfinex you can see that most volume is happening on 1 or 5 min candles and its just massive sell-offs and lack of enthusiasm with it being bought up. We need more liquidity from something like an ETF announcement so that whales cant so easily decide the price. I'm not convinced the capitulation is over yet either.. since sell-side volume wasn't met by buy-side volume, we could see another or round or two. Be careful of opening longs or shorts right now, especially on leverage.. bitmex is swirling with rumors of insider trading involving high-frequency trading bots on very low latency trading against the market with its client's stop limit information. Careful out there of falling daggers... its impossible to predict the bottom since it will likely continue until there equals more buy volume buying the dip... Below 6k although unlikely is technically possible.
The Bullish Scenario.. we create a triple bottom here and break out of this annoying never ending wedge pattern, we peak some more volume interest and we miraculously get some news like bitcoin ETF being approved. We break above 9000 USD and enter a new alt cycle.
I'm more bearish than bullish, but I'm definitely happy to break down out of this wedge pattern, trading has been predictable and boring (atleast on the trend) and looking to mix it up with some newer opportunities.
Stay safe, take calculated risks, and hopefully the bull market is right around the corner, good luck!
i am totally agree with your Bear scenario because it's what we are seeing right now and i do not agree with your bullish scenario.
as we can see Bitcoin did this many times before and some people claimed it's a bullish sign,
but do not forget about the fact that it does not have any volume at all,that means even though it formed a triple bottom it won't change the sentiment and demand.
(for me this kind of view is not valid any longer).
the only thing that we have currently is HOPE nothing more than that,Bitcoin is on SUPER BEAR and it won't change until a year time.
at best we will see it move sideways